Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Preseason questions: Long-term deal for Rasmus?

March 19th, 2010 by Pip

Steve Sommer from Play a Hard Nine posed one of the most intriguing questions of the UCB’s preseason roundtable Monday: Buying out a prospect’s arbitration years has become a trend among MLB clubs. Do you see the Cards taking a similar path with Colby? If so what kind of parameters do you have in mind?

We agreed with Justin Adams that buying out arbitration years for young players is a smart practice. And it’s not only for "budget-minded" teams, either: The Boston Red Sox extended Dustin Pedroia after the 2008 season, and the New York Mets extended the contracts of Jose Reyes and David Wright near the end of the 2006 campaign. And more recently, Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia and Mark Reynolds have traded lucre for certainty. The following table shows the date when those players, along with Grady Sizemore, Hanley Ramirez and Evan Longoria, signed their extensions, age at signing, career WAR in $ at signing and yearly contract amounts for the extensions (option years are in brackets):

Sizemore* Reyes Wright Ramirez* Longoria Braun*# Pedroia Reynolds
Date 3/30/06 8/3/06 8/8/06 5/17/08 4/19/08 5/15/08 12/5/08 3/18/10
Years 2006-12 2007-10 2007-13 2009-2014 2008-13 2008-15 2009-15 2010-12
Age 23 23 23 24 22 24 25 26
Career WAR$ $21.2 $33.1 $44.0 $40.0 $0.0 $13.1 $43.3 $34.8
Year 1 $1.5 $4.0 $2.5 $5.5 $0.5 $2.8 $3.0 $1.5
2 $1.8 $4.0 $5.0 $7.0 $0.5 $0.7 $3.5 $5.0
3 $3.0 $5.8 $7.5 $11.0 $1.0 $1.0 $5.5 $7.5
4 $4.6 $9.0 $10.0 $15.0 $2.0 $4.0 $8.0 [11]
5 $5.6 [11] $14.0 $15.5 $4.5 $6.0 $10.0
6 $7.5 $15.0 $16.0 $6.0 $8.5 $10.0
7 [8.5] [16] [7.5] $10.0 [11]
8 [11] $12.0
9 [11.5]
Buyout $0.5 $0.5 $1.0 $3.0 $0.5 0.5
Total Guar. $24.5 $23.3 $55.0 $70.0 $17.5 $45.0 $40.5 $14.5

*New contract replaced current year
^Bonus is factored into first year of new contract
#Depends on whether Braun is considered Super 2

The Cardinals themselves aren’t averse to buying out young players — Adam Wainwright signed a four-year, $15 million extension (which could grow to six years) after a mere two seasons — though they have yet to commit to as many guaranteed years as some of the clubs in the above table.

The nearest comp for Rasmus is probably the contract that Cleveland (small-market) gave to Grady Sizemore (centerfielder), who had only a year and a half under his belt and 6.4 WAR (when he signed what was essentially a seven-year, $33 million deal at the beginning of the 2006 season; Rasmus has 2.2 WAR ($21.2) so far but could come close to or eclipse Sizemore’s total by the end of 2010 — with a CHONE-projected 3.4, he would have a career 5.6 ($25.2) after this season — and would be about the same age as when Sizemore signed (23). Something slightly under that range would be appropriate for both the Cardinals, who can diversify their assets, and for Rasmus, who can’t (as JC Bradbury brilliantly articulated when describing the dynamics of club buyouts). For while Rasmus might offer the same toolset and value as Sizemore, he’s nowhere near the marketable commodity that Sizemore was when Cleveland locked him up. The reality is that Rasmus isn’t now, nor will be, the face of the Cardinals: That honor is held by Albert Pujols, at least for the next couple of years, and either him or Matt Holliday for several after that. The Cardinals should consider a five- or six-year contract with Rasmus at the end of this year, assuming he stays on course, perhaps for as much as $30 million. Here’s an example scenario for the end of the year, based simply on the average yearly values of the eight players in the above table and Rasmus hitting his CHONE projection:

Rasmus
Date 1/1/2011
Years of Extension 2011-2015
Age 23
Career WAR$ $25.2
Year 1 $2.7
2 $3.4
3 $5.3
4 $7.5
5 $9.3
Total Guaranteed $28.1

If Rasmus stays healthy, the Cardinals would almost certainly get their money’s worth from their centerfielder on that schedule. It would probably make sense and be possible to go beyond a mere five-year extension and buy a second or even third of Rasmus’s free agency years. It would be a big deal for the Cardinals, but they’ve shown — by drafting and signing Rasmus in the first place, and by signing a free agent at the height of his bargaining power in Holliday — that they’re willing to go big these days.

 

Shamrocks and fleurs-de-lis: All-Irish St. Louis team

March 17th, 2010 by Pip

In honor of that great missionary to Ireland, St. Patrick, we give you the all-time St. Louis Irish team, comprised of players who, according to Baseball-Reference, were born in Ireland and played at least one game for a professional St. Louis team. We confess that we cheated on one of them, but, in fairness, lad, only 43 Irish-born men have actually played in the major leagues.

Pitcher: Pete Daniels (County Cavan, Ireland)
Smiling Pete went eight years between appearances (talk about pitching on rest) and tossed 54 2/3 innings with the 1898 Browns (the Cardinal franchise).

Pitcher: Con Lucid (Dublin, Ireland)
Lucid threw 49 innings with the Browns (NL) in 1897. He ended his career in St. Louis and later, sadly, ended his own life.

Catcher: Jack O’Neill C/1B/OF (Galway, Ireland)
O’Neill caught only 280 games in his career, which began with the Cardinals in 1902. So his claim to fame was being traded with Hall of Famer Mordecai Brown to the Cubs. His 2nd most-similar batter is Pujols. Luis Pujols.

1B: Tony Mullane (Cork, Ireland)
Before Greg Harris and Pat Venditte, there was "The Apollo of the Box," Tony Mullane. Like Billy Wagner, Mullane injured his right arm and learned to throw lefthanded. He resumed throwing righthanded after his arm healed and would even alternate throwing from each side in the same game. Best known as a pitcher, he tossed 460 2/3 innings and played outfield, first base and second base for the Browns in 1883, then tried to sign with the St. Louis Maroons of the Union Association but the reserve clause prevented it.

2B: Hugh Daily (Ireland)
One-Arm Daily broke in as a 34-year-old rookie and once struck out 483 batters in a single season. But his "horrific, cuss-laden in-game outbursts towards the opposition, umpires, fans, and teammates" led to no team ever re-signing him for a second season. One of those teams was the St. Louis Maroons, for whom he pitched (and swore) in 1885. Playing with only one hand, he logged two games as a second baseman the year before and turned a double play as a shortstop.

3B: Paddy O’Connor (County Kerry, Ireland)
O’Connor mostly caught in his 83-game major-league career, but his one game at third base is enough for our team, as are his seven games for the Cardinals in 1914, when he posted a -23 OPS+. We didn’t even know that was possible.

SS: Brendan Ryan
His name is about as Irish as you can get, but alas, "The Flyin’ Irishman" hails from California. Tá bron orm!

OF: Patsy Donovan (Queenstown, Ireland)
With 8172 plate appearances in a 17-year career, Donovan is the most accomplished Irish hitter. As a Cardinal, the slap-hitting outfielder led the league with 45 stolen bases in 1900 and later became the team’s player-manager and baseball’s highest-paid player, with an $8,000 salary in 1902.

OF: Mike O’Neill (Maam, Ireland)
A lifelong Cardinal, O’Neill was was one of four brothers who played in the major leagues, including Jack (see above) and Paul (just kidding there). He was "a good-hitting pitcher who occasionally played in the left field" and is known (well, not by many) for hitting the first pinch grand slam in major league history, which happened to be an inside-the-parker. He also became the first National League pitcher to hit a grand slam in the 20th century.

OF: Sleeper Sullivan (Ireland)
The guy went by "Sleeper," and his given name was Thomas Jefferson Sullivan. His nickname was "Old Iron Hands." That alone is an impressive career. The former Maroon and Brownie outfielder-catcher-pitcher is buried at Calvary Cemetery in St. Louis, resting place of General William Tecumseh Sherman, Dred Scott and Tennessee Williams.

HotStove.com’s question of the week: Helpful, hurtful spring performances?

March 16th, 2010 by Pip

HotStove.com’s question of the week: Bearing in mind that Spring Training stats are essentially meaningless, who among the Cardinals’ players have helped or hurt themselves the most with their performances this spring?

Allen Craig is making a strong bid to make the big club, with a .360 OBP and .609 SLG, as is Joe Mather, who got some reps at third base in Tuesday’s game. John Jay, who’s vying for a corner outfield backup spot, hasn’t impressed yet (.276/.280) and may lose out to either or both of those guys.

Mitchell Boggs has certainly solified his case as a late-inning reliever by registering a 6.00 K/BB and 10.80 K/9. He has finished three games, which may be an indication of things to come in the regular season. Among starters, Jaime Garcia has been impressive, with a 12.46 K/9 rate (and 5.19 K/BB), though his chances of making the team as a fifth starter are still in question, probably for reasons out of his control.

UCB roundtable: What’s the best lineup?

March 13th, 2010 by Pip

[The following UCB roundtable question comes from Jeff Stearns of Five O'Clock Blogger.]

Keep the number 10 on your back for another day and [create your] lineup. If the playoffs began today, assuming everyone is healthy and knowing only what we now know about this team … while certain spots are clearly no-brainers, there is plenty of room for debate.

The reasons for batting Colby Rasmus sixth have swayed me:

  • More beneficial opportunities to steal
  • Break up the two lefties (Schumaker) at the top of the order
  • Use some higher-OBP hitters at the top.

With a CHONE-projected .350 OBP, Felipe Lopez looks good in the #2 spot. Given some flexibility with Lopez as a switch hitter, and Skip Schumaker’s and David Freese’s platoon advantages, here are a couple different lineups:

Vs. LHP

1. Lopez, 2B
2. Freese, 3B
3. Pujols, 1B
4. Holliday, LF
5. Ludwick, RF
6. Rasmus, CF
7. Molina, C
8. [pitcher]
9. Ryan, SS

Vs. RHP

1. Schumaker, 2B
2. Lopez, 3B
3. Pujols, 1B
4. Holliday, LF
5. Ludwick, RF
6. Rasmus, CF
7. Molina, C
8. [pitcher]
9. Ryan, SS

The first lineup projects to create about 5.0 runs per game, as does the second.

UCB roundtable: Who’s the starting third baseman?

March 11th, 2010 by Pip

[The following UCB roundtable question comes from Ben at All Cardinals, All The Time.]

At this point in time, who do you see as the starting third baseman: Joey Bombs Mather, David Freese, or Felipe Lopez? I ask this because a third baseman can be a cornerstone of a solid defense, as well as provide concrete impact offensively.

We wouldn’t be surprised if Felipe Lopez were in the lineup as the opening-day starting third baseman against Aaron Harang, whom Lopez hits well (.538 OBP in 13 PAs). After that, Freese is likely the man, at least most of the time. His off-the-field problems don’t seem to bother the Cardinals, so even if he commits another gaffe outside the lines, we don’t see it endangering his job as much as a prolonged funk at the plate, which the Cardinals will be less inclined to endure given Lopez as a more-than-serviceable option. As for defense, Freese offers the best leather. Mather, if he makes the squad, appears slotted for all the corner spots but third.