Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

ESPN mag’s “Recruiting Issue” reveals Pujols’s true motivation

January 28th, 2012 by Pip

Since at least February 2009, Albert Pujols led fans to believe that he wanted to be in St. Louis forever and that the only thing that mattered to him as far as his employer was concerned was being in a position to win. That of course was before he won his second World Series with the Cardinals. But now that Pujols has packed up for California, Sam Miller, writing in the upcoming Feb. 6, 2012 “Recruiting Issue” of ESPN The Magazine, reveals perhaps the true reason why the erstwhile Cardinal first baseman left the team that fulfilled his public goals:

[Angels' GM Jerry] Dipoto did call Dan Lozano, Pujols’ agent, about a week into the free agency period, just to find out what Pujols was looking for — due diligence, he says, but more of an afterthought. The conversation wasn’t about cash. Lozano told the Angels what Pujols wanted: to be on a team that would care deeply for his legacy. Well, shoot, Dipoto thought, we can offer that.

Well, shoot, the team with whom Pujols built his legacy in the first place didn’t care deeply about his legacy? Pujols’s implied obstinence here is patently ridiculous. That is, unless he knew that in St. Louis he had an appreciation for his legacy but had decided to leave anyway. From Dipoto’s telling, it’s as if going to a new team was a fait accompli to Pujols:

As the winter meetings began in Dallas in early December, Dipoto again contacted Lozano. “Danny was very up front about it. Albert wanted to be identified with, and tied to, his new organization and make that part of his legacy,” Dipoto says. “We realized Albert’s desires lined up with us. We wanted to have that kind of marriage. I don’t want to shortchange what Albert does on the field — it’s tremendous — but he does so much more off it.

The Cardinals didn’t officially tender an offer to Pujols until Dec. 6, according to Matthew Leach. So if Pujols was already speaking in terms of his hypothetical “new team,” he very well may have made up his mind without even knowing the Cardinals’ offer. Even after receiving the club’s 10-year, $220-million offer, Pujols — for whom the ESPN report notes that a no-trade clause was important — would’ve had enough material security: it’s hard to imagine that the Cardinals, who have doled out such clauses to Kyle Lohse, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman and Jake Westbrook like they were candy, would’ve balked at one for Pujols.

The more that Miller relates the tale of Pujols’s recruitment from the Angels’ point of view — and it’s a shame that he doesn’t include anything from the Cardinals’ perspective — it appears that Pujols was a needy and injured ego willing to respond to the cooing of a economiastic suitor. Miller goes on:

Moreno, Dipoto, Lozano, and Albert and Deidre Pujols set up a conference call Tuesday night. Money wasn’t mentioned. Rather, Moreno charmed Pujols by stressing the familial nature of the his club: the longest-tenured manager in the game, a stable roster of coaches, a homegrown core that included the recently extended Weaver.

“I only spend five minutes talking to or meeting a guy and I know pretty much,” Pujols said after he signed. “God has given me that wisdom. I don’t even know [Moreno], and he called me one of his partners. That means a lot.”

We’re happy that Pujols feels that he has been blessed with God’s wisdom. The Bible’s book of Proverbs, which contain much wisdom, warns against the flattery of what one might consider “newfound partners”: “Faithful are the wounds of a friend;profuse are the kisses of an enemy.” And given what we now know about Lozano, Pujols may be deceiving himself. In this another bit of wisdom is apt: “Whoever trusts in his own mind is a fool.”

Pujols needs, like all of us, to continue seeking wisdom. The more we read about what appear to have been his true motivations and their contrast with his public testimony sadly taints what was an otherwise productive and spectacular statistical legacy in St. Louis. As noteworthy as that legacy was, it unfortunately doesn’t go much beyond that.

Fielder contract welcome news for Cardinals

January 25th, 2012 by Pip

Seldom does anything that the Detroit Tigers do impact the St. Louis Cardinals (unless it’s fielding in the World Series). But the Tigers’ signing of Prince Fielder is welcome news for a couple of reasons: First, it validates their decision not to over-overpay for Albert Pujols. And second, it means that Fielder won’t be blasting circuit clouts for the team’s division rivals.

If Keith Law’s #1 free agent — ahead of Pujols — inked an overvalued contract that is no better than Albert Pujols’s — similar average annual value but one fewer year — then it stands to reason that the Cardinals did well not to succumb to the pressure to sign their former first baseman. Given that Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and other keen minds are giving the Fielder deal mixed reviews, one can only assume that by extension, Pujols’s deal is similarly or more inflated. Granted, in his prime at 27, Fielder produced value comparable to Pujols at age 31 (5.5 WAR to 5.1), Pujols is at minimum already 32 years old and his career already in its second year of decline, Fielder is only 27. Fielder will be more than halfway through his new contract by the time he reaches the age that Pujols signed with the Angels.

Cameron reasons that the Tigers, because of their being on the cusp of greatness, place a higher value on a win, and therefore are more understandably willing to pay a bit of a premium for Fielder’s services. The Cardinals were in a similar position to pay above the going rate (~$4-5 million per win) because of their projected win total as well as because of the unique marketing value that Pujols offered. But not that much: If the Tigers overpaid, then how much more so did the Angels? And the same would’ve been true of the Cardinals, who were apparently willing to pay upwards of $220 million.

Not only does the Fielder signing validate the Cardinals’ “losing out on” Pujols, it also of course improves their own chance of winning the division in 2012. Fielder was almost certainly already not returning to the Brewers, but he theoretically could’ve landed in Chicago. So now neither division rival has the fearsome slugger, nor any other National League team that might be contending with the Cardinals for one of the two (sigh) wild-card spots. The Cubs and Brewers are weaker without the league’s most productive hitter, so the Cardinals improve relative to them without making a single move.

In an odd, perhaps unexpected way, Fielder leaving the division also makes more possible the chance of Marc Rzepczynski entering the rotation at some point this season. True, Fielder is but one lefthanded hitter for whom Scrabble is reserved as a LOOGy. But if Mike Matheny eschews conventional wisdom that says he needs two LOOGys in the pen, Rzepczynski could be freed to start.

Kerry Robinson headlines 2012 Hot Stove Luncheon

January 12th, 2012 by Pip

Kerry Robinson will be one of the panelists for the upcoming 2012 Hot Stove Luncheon of the Bob Broeg (St. Louis) SABR Chapter. From chapter president Jim Rygelski:

Reserve your place now for the 2012 Hot Stove Luncheon of the Bob Broeg Chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research. It will be Saturday, January 28, at the usual spot, Mike Shannon’s Steaks and Seafood, 620 Market St., Downtown St. Louis. Doors open at 11:30, with a ballpark-buffet lunch at noon. Invited guests include former Cardinals outfielder Kerry Robinson and Pat Daly of the Cardinals’ Event Services Department. Also included will be chapter members’ research presentations, a trivia quiz, prizes and the chance to just talk baseball with other fans like yourself. Cost is $35 per person. Send a send for that amount payable to “SABR Bob Broeg Chapter” to Fred Heger, 9388 White Ave., Brentwood, MO 63144 by Tuesday, January 24.

No word on whether K-Rob will be signing copies of Three Nights in August…

Twelve Days of Christmas 2011: Day 12

January 5th, 2012 by Pip

On the twelfth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me

12* runs creating

Eleven flag a-raising
Ten noobs conspiring
Nine runs a-plating
Eight Game Sevens winning
Seven frames a-blanking
Six innings pitching
Five golden hits.

Four winning games
Three home runs
Two comebacks
And a World Series MVP.

  1. David Freese joined David Eckstein (2006), Darrell Porter (1982) and Bob Gibson (1964, 1967) as Cardinal World Series Most Valuable Players.
  2. In Game 6 of the World Series, the Cardinals came back from being down to their final strike of the season and trailing by two runs (coming back from a win expectancy of 4.1%) not once but twice, making it one of the most unlikely wins in World Series history.
  3. In Game 3 of the World Series, Albert Pujols tied Reggie Jackson (10/18/77) and Babe Ruth (10/6/26, 10/9/28) for the record of three home runs in a single World Series game.
  4. The Cardinals won four games in the World Series to clinch the title: Game 1, Game 3, Game 6 and Game 7.
  5. Allen Craig had five hits in the World Series, all run scoring, including three home runs and two pinch-hit RBI singles off Alexei Ogando:
    Gm Pitcher Inn Play WPA
    1 A Ogando 6 RBI single 0.173
    2 A Ogando 7 RBI single 0.203
    3 M Harrison 1 Home run 0.087
    6 D Holland 8 Home run 0.059
    7 M Harrison 3 Home run 0.125

  6. Inclement weather postponed Game 6 of the World Series, allowing Chris Carpenter to start Game 7 on three days’ rest. After laboring through only three innings on short rest in Game 2 of the NLDS, the Cardinal ace pitched six strong innings en route to his best-pitched game of the World Series (Fielding-Independent Game Score of 56). Since 1990, only two other pitchers have started three games in a World Series (Jack Morris in 1991, Curt Schilling in 2001).
  7. Jaime Garcia threw seven shutout innings in Game 2, walking one and striking out seven. It was the best-pitched game of the World Series and the fifth-best World Series game in Cardinal history by Fielding-Independent Game Score:
    Rk Player Date Series Gm# Opp IP BB SO HR BF FIGS
    1 Bob Gibson 10/2/68 WS 1 DET 9 1 17 0 32 86
    2 Pete Alexander 10/3/26 WS 2 NYY 9 1 10 0 31 73
    3 Chris Carpenter 10/24/06 WS 3 DET 8 0 6 0 26 70
    4 Mort Cooper 10/8/44 WS 5 SLB 9 2 12 0 36 69
    5 Jaime Garcia 10/20/11 WS 2 TEX 7 1 7 0 24 68
    6 John Tudor 10/23/85 WS 4 KCR 9 1 8 0 33 67
    6 Danny Cox 10/26/85 WS 6 KCR 7 1 8 0 27 67
    8 Ernie White 10/3/42 WS 3 NYY 9 0 6 0 33 66
    8 Bob Gibson 10/12/67 WS 7 BOS 9 3 10 0 32 66
    10 Bob Gibson 10/10/68 WS 7 DET 9 1 8 0 36 64
    11 Dizzy Dean 10/9/34 WS 7 DET 9 0 5 0 34 63
    11 Bob Gibson 10/8/67 WS 4 BOS 9 1 6 0 33 63
    13 John Tudor 10/20/87 WS 3 MIN 7 2 7 0 27 62
    13 Max Lanier 10/10/43 WS 4 NYY 7 1 5 0 26 62

  8. The Cardinals made their record 11th appearance in a Game 7 and have won a record eight Game Sevens.
  9. Although David Freese tied the postseason record for total runs batted in with 19, Yadier Molina actually led the team with nine RBIs in the World Series (Freese had seven). In doing so, he broke Keith Hernandez’s team record for RBI in a World Series (Mex had eight in the 1982 series; Roger Maris had seven in 1967).
  10. Ten players who contributed in the World Series were new to the Cardinals in 2011 — a full 40% of their roster — including one rookie# and five mid-season acquisitions^:

  11. In winning their 11th playoff game of the postseason, the Cardinals hoisted the trophy for their 11th World Championship, second-most among MLB teams:
    Year W L Ties W-L% Playoffs
    2011 90 72 0 .556 Won WS (4-3)
    2006 83 78 0 .516 Won WS (4-1)
    1982 92 70 0 .568 Won WS (4-3)
    1967 101 60 0 .627 Won WS (4-3)
    1964 93 69 0 .574 Won WS (4-3)
    1946 98 58 0 .628 Won WS (4-3)
    1944 105 49 3 .682 Won WS (4-2)
    1942 106 48 2 .688 Won WS (4-1)
    1934 95 58 1 .621 Won WS (4-3)
    1931 101 53 0 .656 Won WS (4-3)
    1926 89 65 2 .578 Won WS (4-3)

  12. On the strength of his three home runs and two singles in Game 3, Albert Pujols created 11.7 runs (*round up to 12), the third-most in a single game in World Series history. His 14 total bases was a single-game record for the World Series.

Twelve Days of Christmas 2011: Day 11

January 4th, 2012 by Pip

On the eleventh day of Christmas, my true love sent to me

Eleven flag a-raising

Ten noobs conspiring
Nine runs a-plating
Eight Game Sevens winning
Seven frames a-blanking
Six innings pitching
Five golden hits.

Four winning games
Three home runs
Two comebacks
And a World Series MVP.

  1. David Freese joined David Eckstein (2006), Darrell Porter (1982) and Bob Gibson (1964, 1967) as Cardinal World Series Most Valuable Players.
  2. In Game 6 of the World Series, the Cardinals came back from being down to their final strike of the season and trailing by two runs (coming back from a win expectancy of 4.1%) not once but twice, making it one of the most unlikely wins in World Series history.
  3. In Game 3 of the World Series, Albert Pujols tied Reggie Jackson (10/18/77) and Babe Ruth (10/6/26, 10/9/28) for the record of three home runs in a single World Series game.
  4. The Cardinals won four games in the World Series to clinch the title: Game 1, Game 3, Game 6 and Game 7.
  5. Allen Craig had five hits in the World Series, all run scoring, including three home runs and two pinch-hit RBI singles off Alexei Ogando:
    Gm Pitcher Inn Play WPA
    1 A Ogando 6 RBI single 0.173
    2 A Ogando 7 RBI single 0.203
    3 M Harrison 1 Home run 0.087
    6 D Holland 8 Home run 0.059
    7 M Harrison 3 Home run 0.125

  6. Inclement weather postponed Game 6 of the World Series, allowing Chris Carpenter to start Game 7 on three days’ rest. After laboring through only three innings on short rest in Game 2 of the NLDS, the Cardinal ace pitched six strong innings en route to his best-pitched game of the World Series (Fielding-Independent Game Score of 56). Since 1990, only two other pitchers have started three games in a World Series (Jack Morris in 1991, Curt Schilling in 2001).
  7. Jaime Garcia threw seven shutout innings in Game 2, walking one and striking out seven. It was the best-pitched game of the World Series and the fifth-best World Series game in Cardinal history by Fielding-Independent Game Score:
    Rk Player Date Series Gm# Opp IP BB SO HR BF FIGS
    1 Bob Gibson 10/2/68 WS 1 DET 9 1 17 0 32 86
    2 Pete Alexander 10/3/26 WS 2 NYY 9 1 10 0 31 73
    3 Chris Carpenter 10/24/06 WS 3 DET 8 0 6 0 26 70
    4 Mort Cooper 10/8/44 WS 5 SLB 9 2 12 0 36 69
    5 Jaime Garcia 10/20/11 WS 2 TEX 7 1 7 0 24 68
    6 John Tudor 10/23/85 WS 4 KCR 9 1 8 0 33 67
    6 Danny Cox 10/26/85 WS 6 KCR 7 1 8 0 27 67
    8 Ernie White 10/3/42 WS 3 NYY 9 0 6 0 33 66
    8 Bob Gibson 10/12/67 WS 7 BOS 9 3 10 0 32 66
    10 Bob Gibson 10/10/68 WS 7 DET 9 1 8 0 36 64
    11 Dizzy Dean 10/9/34 WS 7 DET 9 0 5 0 34 63
    11 Bob Gibson 10/8/67 WS 4 BOS 9 1 6 0 33 63
    13 John Tudor 10/20/87 WS 3 MIN 7 2 7 0 27 62
    13 Max Lanier 10/10/43 WS 4 NYY 7 1 5 0 26 62

  8. The Cardinals made their record 11th appearance in a Game 7 and have won a record eight Game Sevens.
  9. Although David Freese tied the postseason record for total runs batted in with 19, Yadier Molina actually led the team with nine RBIs in the World Series (Freese had seven). In doing so, he broke Keith Hernandez’s team record for RBI in a World Series (Mex had eight in the 1982 series; Roger Maris had seven in 1967).
  10. Ten players who contributed in the World Series were new to the Cardinals in 2011 — a full 40% of their roster — including one rookie* and five mid-season acquisitions^:

  11. In winning their 11th playoff game of the postseason, the Cardinals hoisted the trophy for their 11th World Championship, second-most among MLB teams:
    Year W L Ties W-L% Playoffs
    2011 90 72 0 .556 Won WS (4-3)
    2006 83 78 0 .516 Won WS (4-1)
    1982 92 70 0 .568 Won WS (4-3)
    1967 101 60 0 .627 Won WS (4-3)
    1964 93 69 0 .574 Won WS (4-3)
    1946 98 58 0 .628 Won WS (4-3)
    1944 105 49 3 .682 Won WS (4-2)
    1942 106 48 2 .688 Won WS (4-1)
    1934 95 58 1 .621 Won WS (4-3)
    1931 101 53 0 .656 Won WS (4-3)
    1926 89 65 2 .578 Won WS (4-3)