The SABRmetric Case Against Bonds
Many SABRites have been weighing in on Jim Bunning’s congressional testimony about players such as Hank Aaron and Ted Williams not hitting alot of home runs in their late 30s, and how legitimate the claim is.
Cy Morong used Lee Sinins’ RCAA (runs created above average), which is the difference between a player’s RC total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team’s outs (and is park adjusted).
Morong finds the following:
- Only seven of the top 100 seasons ever in RCAA were by players over age 35. Four of those seasons are by Bonds, from 2001-2004.
- In the top 15 seasons in RCAA, Bonds has three, all after the age of 35. Only one other player has a season after 35, Ruth at age 36 comes in at #15 with an RCAA of 128, only his 7th best and far below his 3 best of 166, 157 and 156, all coming before the age of 30.
- Bonds had the highest RCAA ever in 2001 at age 36 with 169. The next highest rank by anyone over 30 is Ruth at age 32 in a tie for 8th with 138 RCAA. Bonds at age 37 is the third highest. Bonds at age 39 is 6th.
- Bonds has three of the top 28 seasons in RCAA. The average age of the other 25 seasons is 27.68.
- In slugging percentage relative to the league average, only seven of the top 100 seasons were by players over 35. Four of them are by Bonds. Of the top 15 seasons, only four are by players over 35, with three by Bonds and one by Williams. All three of Bonds’ seasons rank ahead of Williams’ one at age 38.
- All of Bonds’ four last seasons are in the top 25 in slugging percentage relative to the league
- average. All are past age 35. The average age of the other 21 seasons is 28.
However, these statistics, while certainly compelling, are quite beside the point in terms of proving steroid use, since Bonds already admitted it, lest we forget.