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	<title>Comments on: ZiPS: You may actually like this rotation</title>
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		<title>By: Liam</title>
		<link>http://www.fungoes.net/2007/01/09/zips-you-may-actually-like-this-rotation/comment-page-1/#comment-3012</link>
		<dc:creator>Liam</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jan 2007 18:55:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://stl.sabr.org/fungoes/?p=760#comment-3012</guid>
		<description>So maybe it wasn&#039;t &lt;i&gt;really&lt;/i&gt; long. It just seemed that way at 4 in the morning.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So maybe it wasn&#8217;t <i>really</i> long. It just seemed that way at 4 in the morning.</p>
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		<title>By: Liam</title>
		<link>http://www.fungoes.net/2007/01/09/zips-you-may-actually-like-this-rotation/comment-page-1/#comment-2991</link>
		<dc:creator>Liam</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jan 2007 08:44:17 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I left a really long comment on a scenario 2d involving Mulder and Jon Lieber, but it didn&#039;t show up. His &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_philadelphia_phillies/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;ZiPS line&lt;/a&gt; isn&#039;t too bad&#151;his K/BB is 3.45 but with a 1.6 HR/9. Scenario 2d projects to be the second best after the Weaver scenario, which would carry far more risk, cost, and long-term commitment.

The Phillies need &lt;a href=&quot;http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070107&amp;content_id=1774508&amp;vkey=news_phi&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=phi&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;a set-up man and a lefty bat for the bench&lt;/a&gt;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I left a really long comment on a scenario 2d involving Mulder and Jon Lieber, but it didn&#8217;t show up. His <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_philadelphia_phillies/" rel="nofollow">ZiPS line</a> isn&#8217;t too bad&#8212;his K/BB is 3.45 but with a 1.6 HR/9. Scenario 2d projects to be the second best after the Weaver scenario, which would carry far more risk, cost, and long-term commitment.</p>
<p>The Phillies need <a href="http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070107&amp;content_id=1774508&amp;vkey=news_phi&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=phi" rel="nofollow">a set-up man and a lefty bat for the bench</a>.</p>
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		<title>By: Liam</title>
		<link>http://www.fungoes.net/2007/01/09/zips-you-may-actually-like-this-rotation/comment-page-1/#comment-2990</link>
		<dc:creator>Liam</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jan 2007 08:37:44 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>That doesn&#039;t look too bad at all... How about a scenario 2d: With Mulder, with Jon Lieber.

The Phillies need relief pitching, and we&#039;ve got what looks to be a surplus. I think something like Looper + Flores would be reasonable for on year&#039;s worth of a 37 year old starter. Using &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_philadelphia_phillies/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;the published ZiPS&lt;/a&gt; (presumably with Philadelphia&#039;s park factors), he&#039;s good for a 4.43ERA 1.51WHIP 13W 12L 193IP 33BB 114K 3.45K/BB 6.29K/9 1.60HR/9

That&#039;d be a decent improvement over all the scenarios except for the risk-laden #1. Plus, we might get to keep Narveson around as a Darren Oliver-type.

Now all we need to do is get Gillick to make the deal...

I see the Phillies need &lt;a href=&quot;http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070107&amp;content_id=1774508&amp;vkey=news_phi&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=phi&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;a setup man and a lefty for the bench&lt;/a&gt;. If Duncan looks good in ST, I&#039;d say John Rodriguez becomes expendable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That doesn&#8217;t look too bad at all&#8230; How about a scenario 2d: With Mulder, with Jon Lieber.</p>
<p>The Phillies need relief pitching, and we&#8217;ve got what looks to be a surplus. I think something like Looper + Flores would be reasonable for on year&#8217;s worth of a 37 year old starter. Using <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2007_zips_projections_philadelphia_phillies/" rel="nofollow">the published ZiPS</a> (presumably with Philadelphia&#8217;s park factors), he&#8217;s good for a 4.43ERA 1.51WHIP 13W 12L 193IP 33BB 114K 3.45K/BB 6.29K/9 1.60HR/9</p>
<p>That&#8217;d be a decent improvement over all the scenarios except for the risk-laden #1. Plus, we might get to keep Narveson around as a Darren Oliver-type.</p>
<p>Now all we need to do is get Gillick to make the deal&#8230;</p>
<p>I see the Phillies need <a href="http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070107&amp;content_id=1774508&amp;vkey=news_phi&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=phi" rel="nofollow">a setup man and a lefty for the bench</a>. If Duncan looks good in ST, I&#8217;d say John Rodriguez becomes expendable.</p>
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