Score one for the fans: In inking Mark Mulder to a two-year contract, the Cardinals re-signed one of their own, which, if nothing else, sends a dual message that a) the Cardinals aren’t cheap and b) they care about the team’s fans.

We say “if nothing else” because of the tremendous uncertainty about the signing: Mulder has yet to throw a pitch to a major-league batter since his shoulder surgery. And as we saw earlier in the week, the signing may not have been necessary, given that the Cardinals’ pitching situation might not have been as dire as expected, even without Mulder. With the guaranteed 2008 money, we worry that the team will feel compelled to use Mulder regardless of his effectiveness. Mulder could be the dual killer of pitching many bad innings while soaking up valuable payroll more confidently spent on hitters.

It’s not that we’re rooting against Mulder in this one; we’d love for the big lefty to return to form. And we appreciate his “need to prove something” attitude, which is a healthy change from the somewhat lax attitude that was our impression. But as is the case with athletes (indeed, with many non-athletes, as well), a gap can sometimes exist between one’s intentions and one’s ability. That is, Mulder may have the right mindset — if not a competitor’s spirit then at least a sense of personal pride — but with his pitching health being a great unknown at this point, $13 million in guaranteed salary for a maximum of one and a half years of performance ($8.66 annually, pro-rated) seems excessive. Indeed, it would be a fair contract for a healthy pitcher with Mulder’s declining numbers. As baseball-injuries expert Will Carroll wrote back in September: “Mark Mulder had successful surgery last week, but what does that mean? All surgery where the problem is corrected and the patient wakes up can be qualified as successful. What Cards fans want to know is if Mulder might come back as something near what he was.”

Now, of course, Cardinal fans will point to Chris Carpenter as a pitcher who beat the injury-recovery odds to become one of the best pitchers in the majors. But that’s just it: He beat the odds. And Carpenter had an advantage over Mulder in that he is a power pitcher, which Mulder hasn’t been since 2002 (i.e., a power-finesse ratio above 1.00):

Moreover, given that Mulder’s surgery was, according to Carroll, “much more like the 2005 surgery on Kerry Wood than the 2003 surgery on Matt Morris,” the two years guaranteed is all the more a gamble (You can see for yourself how much Wood has pitched since then, to say nothing of how well.). Wood, who is the same age as Mulder but is a bona-fide power pitcher, signed a mere one-year extension with the Cubs for $1.75 million (and up to $6 million in incentives) this Winter. It’s hard to know how much the Cardinals outbid the Rangers and Indians (Mulder’s other suitors) by, but compared to the Wood contract, it was clearly too much.

And lest we need any more reason for a pessimistic view on this news, Carroll warns that “Mulder faces a long road and a likely change in style when he does return.” We’re not sure what that change in style might be, but we’re pretty sure it doesn’t mean becoming a strikeout pitcher. So coupled with the knowledge that “A pitcher with a low strikeout rate who slips will likely be hit very hard and leave baseball quickly,” we’re not confident that Walt Jocketty will be able to redeem himself with this, his second Mulder transaction. Come to think of it, Jocketty may have had as much to prove as Mulder, perhaps finding it hard to cut bait on the pitcher he controversially traded a 23-year-old major-league-ready starting pitcher (et al) for two years ago.

We hope we’re proven wrong on this one, but come 2008, the only positive gain the Cardinals may recognize from this signing is in the sales of #30 jerseys and fan loyalty. Of course, that’s something.

This entry was posted by Pip on Thursday, January 11th, 2007 at 2:49 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.