Projecting Runs Created
With the release of the 2007 PECOTA projections, the rollout of the big four systems is complete. Depending upon which one is most accurate, the Cardinals’ offense could vary around 100 runs created, which would be either about 30 runs below what the same group actually produced in 2006 or more than 70 RC above it. We generated Runs Created (with stolen bases) for each of the major projection systems — CHONE, Marcels, PECOTA and ZiPS — to get a feel for what we’ll see at Busch Stadium this Summer. PECOTA by far is the most bearish across the lineup; most notably, they take a low view of Edmonds in 2007. Even with the PECOTA numbers, the average of the four systems indicates a sizable net increase in runs created (for the group of players common to each system):
| Player | CHON | MARC | PECO | ZiPS | AVG | 2006 |
| Pujols | 144.9 | 133.9 | 148.2 | 153.7 | 145.2 | 154.5 |
| Rolen | 72.9 | 81.8 | 88.8 | 89.3 | 83.2 | 97.8 |
| Edmonds | 69.2 | 74.8 | 57.9 | 77.1 | 69.8 | 59.3 |
| Duncan | 66.0 | 60.3 | 68.0 | 70.9 | 66.3 | 59.6 |
| Encarnacion | 70.5 | 70.5 | 63.7 | 54.2 | 64.7 | 76.8 |
| Eckstein | 58.9 | 61.0 | 55.0 | 59.2 | 58.5 | 56.6 |
| Kennedy | 53.6 | 60.3 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 54.9 | 56.4 |
| Rodriguez | 39.0 | 44.5 | 39.5 | 52.5 | 43.9 | 29.4 |
| Miles | 44.1 | 51.6 | 29.0 | 47.2 | 43.0 | 47.9 |
| Molina | 46.0 | 47.4 | 33.0 | 38.5 | 41.2 | 34.6 |
| Schumaker | 44.5 | 27.4 | 44.6 | 45.1 | 40.4 | 3.6 |
| Taguchi | 37.8 | 49.3 | 24.4 | 36.6 | 37.0 | 38.0 |
| Spiezio | 33.3 | 41.8 | 22.8 | 35.2 | 33.3 | 49.2 |
| Marrero | 18.6 | 34.9 | 21.2 | 25.0 | 24.9 | 13.8 |
| Bennett | 18.6 | 29.3 | 10.7 | 15.3 | 18.5 | 14.2 |
| Total | 818.0 | 868.8 | 760.1 | 852.5 | 824.8 | 791.7 |
So we should expect Pujols, Rolen and Encarnacion to slip a bit from their 2006 performances, while Edmonds, Duncan, Eckstein, Rodriguez, Marrero and Molina should improve upon theirs to balance them out. All in all, a favorable Winter of projections for the Birds.