Best One-Year Contract Values
With many players signed — and a few left to go — we thought we’d review the values of one-year contracts signed by free agents this Winter. In our little exercise, which should probably taken with a wee bit of salt, we simply took projected VORP (from BPro) and divided by the published contract amount (we used the league minimum of $380,000 for minor-league deals). We then graded on a curve to find the best deals — and the worst. By our count, 84 players have signed single-season contracts — here are the top grades (G) of the class, and the bottom:
| Best | Po | Age | New Team | Dollars | VORP | VORP/$Mil | G |
| Jayson Werth | RF | 27 | Philadelphia | $850,000 | 15.4 | 18.14 | A |
| Jose Cruz Jr. | LF | 32 | San Diego | $650,000 | 10.4 | 15.99 | A |
| David Newhan | LF | 33 | NY Mets | $380,000 | 5.6 | 14.87 | A |
| Matt Stairs | RF | 38 | Toronto | $380,000 | 5.3 | 13.94 | B |
| Shawn Estes | SP | 33 | San Diego | $380,000 | 5.0 | 13.05 | B |
| Todd Greene | C | 35 | San Diego | $380,000 | 3.1 | 8.05 | B |
| Doug Brocail | RP | 39 | San Diego | $500,000 | 3.8 | 7.70 | B |
| Scott Williamson | RP | 30 | Baltimore | $900,000 | 6.9 | 7.67 | B |
| John Thomson | SP | 33 | Toronto | $500,000 | 3.8 | 7.55 | B |
| Marcus Giles | 2B | 28 | San Diego | $3,200,000 | 22.5 | 7.05 | B |
| Aaron Boone | 3B | 33 | Florida | $925,000 | 5.6 | 6.00 | B |
| Mike Lieberthal | C | 35 | LA Dodgers | $1,250,000 | 7.4 | 5.88 | B |
| Worst | Po | Age | New Team | Dollars | VORP | VORP/$Mil | G |
| Miguel Cairo | 2B | 32 | NY Yankees | $750,000 | -1.1 | -1.43 | D |
| Jerome Williams | SP | 25 | Washington | $500,000 | -0.8 | -1.70 | D |
| Gary Bennett | C | 34 | St. Louis | $900,000 | -2.2 | -2.46 | D |
| Jose Hernandez | SS | 37 | Pittsburgh | $380,000 | -1.2 | -3.18 | D |
| Aaron Miles | 2B | 30 | St. Louis | $1,000,000 | -6.2 | -6.17 | D |
| Paul Bako | C | 34 | Baltimore | $900,000 | -5.8 | -6.46 | D |
| Tomas Perez | SS | 33 | Chicago Cubs | $380,000 | -2.5 | -6.59 | D |
| Russ Ortiz | SP | 32 | San Francisco | $380,000 | -3.1 | -8.27 | F |
| Rick Ankiel | LF | 27 | St. Louis | $380,000 | -17.8 | -46.76 | F |
Here are the overall report cards for NL teams:
| Team | A | B | C | D | F | GPA |
| Marlins | 1 | 4.00 | ||||
| Phillies | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | |||
| Padres | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3.75 | ||
| Mets | 1 | 5 | 3.33 | |||
| Dodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.25 | |||
| Rockies | 5 | 3.00 | ||||
| Brewers | 1 | 3.00 | ||||
| Braves | 3 | 3.00 | ||||
| Astros | 2 | 3.00 | ||||
| Cubs | 3 | 1 | 2.75 | |||
| Nationals | 2 | 1 | 2.67 | |||
| Giants | 3 | 1 | 2.50 | |||
| Cardinals | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2.33 | ||
| Pirates | 1 | 2.00 |
The Cardinals didn’t fare too well; even removing the Ankiel contract, which is overvalued at $380K, none of their one-year signings was above average and one was below. The good news for the Cardinals is that none of their division competitors did much better: The Cubs and Astros each had a below-average signing, and no Central team has had an above-average deal. The Padres have done the best in the league in their short-term acquisitions thus far. Here’s how individual Cardinal players broke down:
| Player | Po | Age | Dollars | VORP | VORP/$Mil | G |
| Russ Springer | RP | 38 | $1,750,000 | 5.9 | 3.36 | C |
| Kip Wells | SP | 29 | $4,000,000 | 7.5 | 1.88 | C |
| Ryan Franklin | RP | 33 | $1,000,000 | 1.5 | 1.45 | C |
| Gary Bennett | C | 34 | $900,000 | -2.2 | -2.46 | D |
| Aaron Miles | 2B | 30 | $1,000,000 | -6.2 | -6.17 | D |
| Rick Ankiel | LF | 27 | $380,000 | -17.8 | -46.76 | F |
Again, it’s not entirely fair to consider Ankiel in this evaluation, since he isn’t expected to play at the major-league level next year. Looking ahead, we wondered how much would be a good price for Preston Wilson, the one remaining Cardinal free agent:
| Player | Po | Salary | VORP | VORP/$Mil | G |
| Preston Wilson | LF | $694,715 | 8.9 | 12.81 | A |
| Preston Wilson | LF | $1,530,307 | 8.9 | 5.82 | B |
So if the Cardinals were able to sign Wilson for a one-year contract at $1.5 million or less, he’d be the first good one-year deal of the Winter for the team. And he’d be a steal at $700K.
Regardless of whether the Cardinals sign Wilson, there’s more to offseason moves than one-year deals. And that’s a good thing for the Cardinals.
January 23rd, 2007 at 10:11 pm
Does the team option for 2008 make Taguchi’s a two-year deal, for your purposes?
January 24th, 2007 at 12:39 am
Hey, Don. No, the fact that he wasn’t a free agent disqualified him. I now realize that I failed to include that important little tidbit in my description, which I will now fix.
January 31st, 2007 at 10:44 am
[...] Preston Wilson, the Cardinals’ last remaining free agent, has re-signed with the team. For the base salary of $1 million, the deal is very reasonable, inasmuch as it grades out as an above-average signing according to other one-year contracts of this offseason. As we wrote last week: Looking ahead, we wondered how much would be a good price for Preston Wilson, the one remaining Cardinal free agent: [...]