According to the P-D’s Derrick Goold, the team’s opening-week rotation is set, and Chris Carpenter will pitch twice and Braden Looper once before Adam Wainwright or Anthony Reyes take the mound. Who’d have thought that the team would have such a luxury? TLR explains:

"Because of how well these guys have gone about everything we’ll be pitching five guys," La Russa said.

It’s hard to argue with that, given the cadre’s spring statistics coming into today:

As Mike Shannon indicated this weekend, if the staff turns in those kind of numbers in the regular season, you can give the Cardinals the trophy again. All in due time — here’s how the first week shakes out:

• 4/1 vs. NYM: Carpenter
• 4/3 vs. NYM: Wells
• 4/4 vs. NYM: Looper
• 4/6 @ HOU: Carpenter
• 4/7 @ HOU: Wainwright
• 4/8 @ HOU: Reyes

The obvious fan reaction is "Looper? It’s great that he made the rotation, but isn’t he the #5 guy?" If he’s the weakest member of the group, wouldn’t it behoove the team to pitch him only when necessary? That would seem reasonable to even a active follower of the team. But, not surprisingly, LaRuncan has a method to their madness — Dave Duncan tells why:

"You look at what guys’ styles of pitching are, and the style of hitting of the club," said Duncan. "Sometimes there’s an advantage for one guy — not an advantage, but he matches up better than somebody else. So you look at that. And you look at history — what history they have against different clubs."

Duncan’s carefully chosen words — particularly the clarification "not an advantage" — don’t inspire a lot of confidence, but what numbers might LaRuncan have been looking at? Maybe these were included:

PFR: Power-Finesse ratio
@MMP: Mickey Mouse Minute Maid Park
v. type: either power or finesse

With his Power-Finesse Ratio less than 1, Looper techically is a finesse pitcher. While the Mets hit finesse pitchers better than power ones, the Astros hit them better still, at least in 2006. So in terms of "guys’ styles of pitching" and "style of hitting of the club," pitching Looper vs. the Mets makes sense.

What about head-to-head? Adam Wainwright’s NLCS made-for-DVD moments aside, he didn’t fare well against the Mets in two regular-season appearances; TLR probably doesn’t want to push his luck. Conversely, Wainwright has dominated the ‘Stros in Houston. As for Looper, he’s been equally tough on the Mets as he has the Astros. But, ah, you may say, Looper pitched for the Mets for two years — how has he pitched against the team that may have learned his secrets? In a limited 1 1/3 innings against his old mates last year, he sent down four batters empty-handed. Like many of these splits, not a huge amount to base a decision on, but it’s something.

So it would appear that the best choice for Game 3 is indeed Looper. Of course, "the best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men gang aft a-gley," or, if you prefer, LaRuncan’s decision to start Looper vs. the Mets could blow up in their faces. No matter — from the vantage point of a week out, it makes sense.

Interestingly enough, Looper, the team’s third leading middle-reliever with 73 1/3 IP, only pitched 1 1/3 vs. the Mets in 2006 (also-rans like Brian Falkenborg and Jorge Sosa pitched more). Could it be, like Greg Maddux setting up hitters for at-bats weeks in advance, LaRuncan foresaw the possibility of Looper becoming a starter in 2007 and held him back (as they did this past week in Grapefruit League action)? Nah.

This entry was posted by Pip on Monday, March 26th, 2007 at 4:38 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.