Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Cardinals 7, Astros 0

It’s a difficult position to be in, to try to explain. If you make comments like you’re thrilled, then you disrespect the franchise. Between disrespecting the franchise and respecting Red, I’ll take respecting Red.

– TLR on tying Red Schoendienst for first on the club’s all-time win list

Poor Tony. It sounds like he’s been so beaten down by the press that he not only has to explain his comments but explain the thought process behind his comments. But TLR’s preoccupation with words, or, more specifically, what the press thinks of him, may be part of the problem. We weren’t around to know how Red Schoendienst handled the media (in a different media era, to be sure), but we recall Whitey Herzog’s candor (indeed, continued candor) and a certain confidence that expressed itself in unequivocal, direct speech. By contrast, La Russa has a lawyerly and abstruse manner, with the occasionally laughable circumlocution. We’ll try to put the moment into words and numbers so that La Russa doesn’t have to. Win milestones by overall game:

The Old Redhead had a slightly faster start out of the gate, but La Russa’s team began peaking in 2000, and what took Schoendienst 2005 games to achieve, TLR has accomplished in 1908. Kudos to "the Cardinal manager."

 

It’s been a process all along. I’ve taken my bumps and bruises and had my bad outings. I’ve had it handed to me and I’ve learned from that.

– Braden Looper

With the season winding down, it appears that The Great Experiment will have been a success. Looper is second on the team in Pitching Runs Created with 49, which is only two fewer than one of the men he replaced, Jason Marquis, put up last year and four fewer than one the team might’ve signed, Woody Williams. Yesterday we neglected to note another of erstwhile Astro GM Tim Purpura’s offseason moves: signing Williams to a two-year, $12.5 million contract. Bad contracts are remembered best by fans of the teams who made them (since they have to live with them), so it’s worthwhile for Cardinal fans to note the moves that the Cardinals didn’t make last winter. Conversely, all those observers who faulted Cardinal management for not signing bigger-name free agents would do well to credit the team for smart acquisitions, like Russ Springer, who is one of the best buys of the year. Ditto Troy Percival and Ryan Franklin. Rather than shelling out cash for overpriced starters, the Cardinals quietly solidified their ‘pen and are reaping the rewards. When it comes down to it, though, we’re happy that the only people whose opinions matter is the Cardinal ownership group, which recognizes Jocketty and Co.’s wisdom. Then again, the same is probably true in Houston, since Tim Purpura no longer has a job.

Today, I just tried to get as much feedback as I could and everyone agreed that I should just stay with the same lineup we had. Tomorrow, there will probably be a couple of changes.

– Cecil Cooper

Credit Looper, who had a fine DERA of 3.02, for pitching well: The Astros still have a potent lineup, even if Biggio — with a .286 OBP — shouldn’t be leading off anymore. If Cooper wants to shake things up a bit, he could do worse than to take a page out of Tony La Russa’s playbook and bat the pitcher eighth. Come to think of it, the nine hole might be just the place for Biggio. Speaking of lineups, last night’s Cardinal lineup might’ve foreshadowed their 2008 outfield. As evidenced in the 7-0 win, a Duncan-Edmonds-Ankiel combo would be potent (if Ankiel’s "rookie" start is any indication of his talent) but would appear to leave the team vulnerable to lefties. But Ankiel hasn’t yet demonstrated a platoon disadvantage in a smallish sample:

2007 OBP SLG GPA
MiLB vs. LHP .313 .602 .291
MiLB vs. RHP .321 .550 .282
MLB vs. LHP .333 .750 .337
MLB vs. RHP .357 .568 .303

That’s really the highlight of the day. To finally get there, we ought to enjoy the moment. That’s really special for this team.

– TLR

(Reaching) .500 is not the goal. I mean it was a goal. But if we don’t win (Wednesday), we’ve got to win another one. We’ve got to get above .500.

– Jim Edmonds

Being at .500 is not a goal to end the season with.

– David Eckstein

Perhaps one of the reasons that the Cardinals have resussitated themselves — in addition to their talent, of course — is that they think like champions. While one of the negative side effects of the club’s long run of success is fan spoilage, a positive one is that the players have developed a culture of winning. Being so used to being on top, anything less than a championship is a foreign and uncomfortable situation.

We’ve been through a lot. I think it’s a testament to the guys in this room that we never quit. We’ve had a lot of things happen, from the death of a teammate to having one of the top two pitchers in the National League go down for the whole season.

– Looper

Though the impact of Josh Hancock’s death is impossible to quantify, Carpenter’s loss is more easily put into numbers. With a preseason projected VORP of 46.1, Carpenter would be hard for any team to replace. But as well as the Cardinals’ remaining four starters — Wainwright, Looper, Wells and Reyes — have done, the rest of the starters haven’t come close to replacing the erstwhile ace:

NAME GS IP VORP
Joel Pineiro 5 28 5.1
Brad Thompson 13 110 4.2
Todd Wellemeyer 8 44 1.4
Randy Keisler 3 17.3 -0.8
Mike Maroth 6 31.7 -26.5
Total 35 231 -16.6

I was just jumping at it too much. Hal just asked me to stay back a little more, stay behind the ball. I started seeing the ball better, my pitch selection’s gotten better. Maybe I can get something started.

– Chris Duncan

See, hitting coaches really do help!

This wasn’t what I planned. We were all excited. This kind of takes the steam out of it.

– Cecil Cooper

Don’t worry, Coop. Not everyone can be like the Reds.

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