Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

And the nominees for NL MVP are…

These days, the internet is chock-full of writers musing on whom the National League’s Most Valuable Player should be, ranging from Hanley Ramirez to Chipper Jones to Chase Utley. Yesterday, the P-D’s Derrick Goold threw his two cents into the debate. Since it’s nigh onto September, we figured it was all right to finally weigh in on the issue ourselves. Last year, as loyal readers may recall, we introduced a Sabermetric MVP system which combines Win Shares Above Bench and Win Probability Added, two metrics that we figure are the best attributes of an MVP candidate (we’re grateful to Dan Turkenkopf of Baseball Think Factory for helping tweak the formula, which is WSAB/3 + WPA). And the nominees are (Win Share data is through 8/23):

Player Tm Pos WSAB WPA MVP
Peavy SD SP 15 4.51 9.51
Pujols STL 1B 15 3.64 8.64
Penny LAN SP 16 3.24 8.57
Bonds SF OF 12 4.44 8.44
Cabrera FLA 3B 14 3.34 8.01
Webb ARI SP 15 2.90 7.90
Wright NYN 3B 14 3.11 7.78
Fielder MIL 1B 11 4.03 7.70
Utley PHI 2B 13 2.98 7.31
Byrnes ARI OF 15 2.30 7.30
Young SD SP 11 3.54 7.21
Oswalt HOU SP 11 2.70 6.37
Hudson ATL SP 13 1.82 6.15
Ramirez FLA SS 12 2.10 6.10
Martin LAN C 11 1.86 5.53
Lee HOU OF 11 1.84 5.51
Reyes NYN SS 12 1.32 5.32
Beltran NYN OF 12 0.90 4.90

Last year’s NL race wasn’t nearly this close. And yet none of the big names — Fielder, Utley, Wright or Cabrera — is tops. It’s a pitcher, and in fact, two of the top three in our MVP rankings are pitchers. So why isn’t Jake Peavy getting more press? Albert Pujols isn’t far off the pace; we’ll see whether his nagging right hamstring curtails his MVP candidacy.

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