After a Aug. 5-23 run in which the team won 11 of 17 games and their starting pitchers had 17 consecutive 44+ game scores, the Cardinals’ rotation hasn’t been as uniformly strong lately. Kip Wells has turned in three straight dogs of 20, 35 and 18 GmSc, and Anthony Reyes was ineffective (GmSc of 30) in his last start. We’re inclined to think that the rotation is not as buggered as some, but the return of southpaws Mulder and Maroth certainly adds options, if not altogether clear or advantageous ones. With 29 games in 28 days to go, let’s take stock of the team’s rotation, which will go six-deep for a time.

Kip Wells: Wells gave up a lot of hits in Monday’s blowout, but his game DERA — 5.68 — revealed that he didn’t pitch as badly as it seemed. Several of those hits weren’t hit hard, though a few certainly were, but Wells couldn’t get the timely double plays that his opposing number, Ian Snell, did. Snell pitched shutout ball, but his DERA wasn’t much better than Wells’s: 5.00. Wells may be just as effective in the bullpen, but it doesn’t mean he hasn’t been a capable starter: He’s right behind Looper (4.56) in FIP with a 4.72. We were disappointed in fans’ response to Wells yesterday; we suppose it’s too much to ask of "the best fans in baseball" to look beyond the damning articles citing win-loss records that they read in the local paper.

Mike Maroth: Somehow it doesn’t give us much confidence when La Russa’s rationale for re-adding Maroth to the rotation is that he "showed some promise in his first start." For the record, that was June 25, and he hasn’t come close to replicating his game score of 72; his next-highest GmSc was 45, and he had 23, 3 and 15 in his three starts prior to hitting the "DL." With a pretty clear platoon advantage (lefties have a low .246 GPA against him), Maroth seems better suited for LOOGy work:

Mark Mulder: After 9 1/3 innings at Palm Beach (Single-A, Advanced), where he had an unpromising 1.67 K/BB and 4 2/3 innings at Memphis, where he had a 2.00 K/BB, Mulder starts for the Cardinals tomorrow night. Will he be the Mulder of old, or the rich-man’s Mike Maroth?

Anthony Reyes: Despite being pulled after nine batters on Friday (20.36 DERA), Iron Cap has been a reliable starter since his return, with an average Game Score of 54 before his letdown against the Reds:

His recent run compares favorably with Adam Wainwright’s season average GmSc of 51. His ejection from the rotation is premature.

Joel Pineiro: Pineiro’s pitting against Matt Morris tonight was a providential matchup of the trade-deadline pitcher that the Cardinals couldn’t get and the one they did. Pineiro outpitched Mo in DERA, 3.75 to 4.40. It would’ve been fun to have Morris back in the fold, especially with his former mates Ankiel and Miguel Cairo back with the club, but Pineiro’s been just as effective since the pitchers changed teams this year (prior to tonight’s game):

Braden Looper and Adam Wainwright: LaRuncan plans to give the two former relievers rest whenever possible down the stretch. It’s anyone’s guess how they’ll fare. After all, few figured Looper would make it this far in the rotation. But to the extent that Wainwright can go deep into the games in which he does pitch, the bullpen will be spared for those outings when Looper, who shouldn’t be pitching into the sixth inning, anyway. Look at how his opponents’ GPA spikes after the fifth inning this season:

His last two outings, in which he faced 25 and 26 batters over seven innings, notwithstanding, Looper is going to require some relief, if La Russa is as concerned about late-inning rallies as he is first-inning ones.

So, after Looper and Wainwright, the rotation is a box of chocolates. But these days, with an increased roster and openness to a six-man rotation, what better time would there be to implement our 10-man rotation? We know, we know — it’s an idea before its time. So realistically we figure the keys to the Cardinals’ success are twofold and linked: How much patience LaRuncan has for bad starts (a la Reyes Friday) and how well the bullpen can digest innings. On the first matter, we hope that TLR applies the same standard to his veteran hurlers that he did to Iron Cap; for instance, if Mulder clearly doesn’t have it tomorrow, we expect a quick hook. With the Cardinals now only one game back, games these days are like mini playoff series, so the manager needs to manage like it. The bullpen has been the team’s most consistent and stalwart component in 2007, so we have confidence in the core of Percival, Springer, Franklin and Isringhausen. And while lesser lights such as Wellemeyer, Johnson, Flores, and now Jimenez and Cavazos inspire something short of faith, they very well may be the bridge to get the team from its rotational shortcomings to its true relief.

This entry was posted by Pip on Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 at 11:03 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.