Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Quotebook: The Pineiro signing

This was something that was discussed by the group and that everybody was very eager to get done. We talked with his agent (Adam Katz) before the season ended. It really became a situation where we had to act now. The longer we waited, the more volatile the market could become.

– John Mozeliak

Re-signing a post-prime pitcher with a 4.87 FIP last year for $13 million was a situation in which the Cardinals just "had to act now"? Perhaps Mozeliak is covering his and the team’s backside, but we find it hard to believe that pitching market is going to be that tight. Then again, several pricier pitchers didn’t perform any better than Pineiro did in 2007 (though Pineiro only pitched 97 2/3 IP total): Tom Glavine (4.86 FIP), Jason Marquis (4.92), Dontrelle Willis (5.10) and Livan Hernandez (5.78). But if it’s true that the veteran/aging pitcher market is going to be volatile this winter, the smart money avoids it altogether. After all, if the disparity between free-agent contracts and team-controlled contracts continues to widen, with no attendant gap in their performance, the decision to focus on younger-player development is that much easier.

Then again, maybe Mozeliak is as sly as a fox, and he is fattening the cow for the slaughter and intends to trade Pineiro and his "below-market" contract for a couple of younger pitchers with potential. He may be wiser than we think.

Right now it’s hard to say where Joel will slot (within the rotation), but he’s very attractive because of his ability to eat innings. He showed at times he can compete very well. It’s a win-win for both of us.

– Mozeliak

Oh, not the dreaded "innings-eater" reference, which is GM-speak for a guy who can pitch badly for many innings. Our readers almost had us convinced that Pineiro was a decent signing, but his "ability to eat innings" is the kiss of death. And about which major-league pitcher could one not say "at times he can compete very well"? As for Pineiro’s ability to "eat" innings, he hasn’t pitched to more than 753 batters in a single season since 2005 (822 batters, 189 IP). This is the same Pineiro who, back in January, said about his upcoming role in the Red Sox bullpen, "Knowing I don’t have to go out there and throw 215 innings, I think it’ll be good for me."

I was going to test the market and see how it is. But there’s no reason for it.

– Pineiro

We appreciate the kind things that Pineiro has said about the Cardinals. But his signing reminds us of the Seinfeld episode in which Kramer is seeking damages for spilling hot coffee on himself. When the company’s attorneys begin their settlement offer at "free coffee at all of our locations," Kramer jumps up and exclaims "I’ll take it!" Actually, credit Pineiro — and Katz — for taking advantage of a perceived inflated market. We suppose it’s possible that Pineiro could’ve gotten more on the open market, but, to quote another Seinfeldism, "not bloody likely!"

St. Louis gave me that chance in July. They took a chance on me. That meant a lot to me personally. Everything else just clicked from there.

– Pineiro

Translation: They gave me a chance to make $13 million based on 63 2/3 innings pitched! Everything else — that is, being in a pitcher’s park and in front of the best defense I’ve had in four years — just clicked.

As a younger pitcher, he won 14 and 16 games for the Mariners in 2002 and 2003. But Seattle is a graveyard for pitchers -– just ask Jeff Weaver -– and Pineiro fell out of the rotation in 2006.

P-D columnist Jeff Gordon on Pineiro

We’re not sure what Gordon is talking about with Seattle being a graveyard for pitchers. It’s more accurate to say that Seattle is a graveyard for fly balls: After all, it’s a pitcher’s haven. With the exception of his brief stint in Boston, Pineiro has actually enjoyed a ballpark advantage his entire career, according to ESPN’s Park Factors (below 1.000 favors the pitcher) — Pineiro’s home parks’ factors and league ranks:

Year Tm Runs
2000 SEA .986 (18th)
2001 SEA .769 (30th)
2002 SEA .854 (24th)
2003 SEA .946 (17th)
2004 SEA .834 (30th)
2005 SEA .970 (19th)
2006 SEA .881 (29th)
2007 BOS 1.177 (1st)
2007 STL .912 (22nd)

It’s not often that a writer is so wrong that we don’t even touch his reference to starting-pitcher wins!

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