Around the horn: Can Mozeliak emulate Ed Wade?
The Astros scored their first points of the offseason when they dealt Brad "Leonard Shelby" Lidge to the Phillies last week. Why? Because they recognized the relatively low replacement value of a 30-year-old "closer," (compare to Matt Herges’s VORP) got younger and gained two prospects from the right side of the defensive spectrum. The trade for centerfielder Michael Bourn and minor-league third baseman Mike Costanzo made us wonder whether the Cardinals might’ve been able to swing a similar deal involving one of their relievers (Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen all had more WSAB than Lidge in 2007). It’s a moot point regarding Isringhausen, since he has no-trade power (and we’re pretty sure he’s not interested in Philly, which, had it been around in Dante’s time, might’ve been one of his rings of hell for athletes). But take Izzy as a hypothetical: The Cardinals would’ve been freeing up $8.75 million in salary while getting a 2008-ready player who can spell Edmonds (or, with his defense, even push Edmonds to a corner spot, though JEd still plays a pretty good CF) and play in a corner outfield position. Bourn’s PECOTA-projected OBP of .310 is far from stellar but is better than that of Edmonds’s current backup of Ankiel (.285). And yes, he’s fast, though we’re not convinced that makes him as valuable as an offensive weapon as most people suppose. And Costanzo, as a 3B, would’ve given the Cardinals flexibility to trade Scott Rolen either now or sometime in the future (though he could be, as one BTF commenter put it, "Russell Branyan Lite"). The trade shows that some of the best offseason options that the Cardinals will find, like jobs, aren’t the ones listed in the papers. If John Mozeliak can pinpoint a situation like the Astros did, in which a team like the Phillies is willing to deal a major-league-ready position player for a replaceable reliever, the Cardinals’ "evolution" will begin to take shape.
Charades
As the world breathlessly awaits Sen. Mitchell’s "report," the big "concern — at least among the media class — is that GMs may be reticent to sign free agents who are implicated in PED use. But if the reaction of team officials to news about players who’ve already been outed as cheaters is any indication, it’s all much ado about nothing. Consider the two latest current players who’ve been busted, Jose Guillen and Mike Cameron, and the outrage from their teams:
We thought he was an outstanding teammate. We were happy to have him. We know nothing about what happened in the past. I continue to admire and respect him greatly.
– Mariners president Chuck Armstrong on Guillen
I hope it doesn’t hurt Mike. He’s a good man. He was a great teammate. He made a mistake here and certainly will have to pay for the public embarrassment that will come to him and his family. But knowing Mike, he is someone who can turn a negative into a positive.
— Padres GM Kevin Towers, adding that the Padres are still willing to negotiate a deal with Cameron
Add those reactions to that of erstwhile Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty on Rick Ankiel’s doping, and it’s clear that baseball is dead serious about ridding itself of PEDs, isn’t it?
Using their noggins
Turns out that we were only half-joking when we noted during the playoffs that we’d see base coaches wearing helmets next season. It seems to us like an all-too-common response in our culture of overreacting to an isolated event. To be sure, no one wants to witness another Mike Coolbaugh incident, but, in the proper historical context, his death was a freak occurrence, given the thousands of baseball games that have been played over the years and that this was the first such tragedy. If general managers were really on the ball, they would require someone else to wear helmets: their pitchers. After all, pitchers are much more likely to be hit with a batted ball — by the time the ball is struck, their momentum has them moving toward the plate nearly 50 feet away. And, in terms of investment, GMs should want to protect pitchers, whose replacement value is considerably more than base coaches (not that their lives, strictly speaking, are of any less worth). We don’t want to gainsay a move to make people safer, but we’d just as soon have neither group wearing helmets, since, in our opinion, baseball has too much body armor already.
Bottom stories of the week
- Dodgers expected to sign Park to minor league contract – AP headline
- Devil Rays make it official; they’re now the Rays – AP headline
- Craig Wilson would welcome return to Pirates – AP headline
For the 2009 Gold Glove awards?
Defense could affect voting — Journal-Sentinel headline
Talk about a bad unearned-run average!
Pavano error nearing end — NY Post headline
Miklasz dubious of Rolen market
We have no way of knowing whether Bernie Miklasz voted in our current poll ("What is Scott Rolen’s trade value in VORP?"), but his latest column gives us some clues as to his position:
If you think another team will pick up all $36 million of Rolen’s contract … well, you would be dreaming.
If you think another team would be willing to pay half ($18 million) of what’s owed to Rolen … you’re a giddy optimist.
If you think another team would pick up the entire $36 million of his deal and give the Cardinals a good player or prospect or two in return … well, this would make you delusional.
We appreciate the subtle hints, but to quote Johnny O’Connor, "Don’t leave me hanging by a thread, let me know where I stand!"
November 13th, 2007 at 8:38 am
I’m not so sure about that Lidge trade. I’ve read conflicting reports about Costanzo (who should play for the Yankees, if only for the Seinfeld references), and I’m not sold on Bourn being anything other than fast. They sound like two spare parts to me (one a AAAA 3B and the other a defensive replacement/pinch runner). If I were an Astros fan, I would have hoped for more than that, even if it was more in the way of ‘potential down the road’. The market does still overvalue closers and I’ve got to believe that a team like the Tigers (after Zumaya went down) would have given up a bit more for Lidge.
November 13th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
Yeah, pip, I also disagree with you on the Astros/Phillies trade. Lidge may be replaceable, but he’s still a reliever who will give the Phils a solid season, and he always has the potential to be lightsout (even if that is a swiftly diminishing possibility). But on top of that, he’ll walk on free agency, giving Philadelphia compensatory picks that they will be able to use to procure (most likely) better players than the guys they sent to Houston.
November 14th, 2007 at 1:26 am
A few quibles on coaches wearing batting helmets.
(1)I’d wouldn’t really put helmets in the same class as body armor. The problem with body armor is that it makes players less fearful (rightfuly so) of being hit by a pitch, so they crowd the plate more. Body armor on coaches or pitchers as you suggest would hardly encourage “heading” a baseball a’la soccer.
(2) When assesing risk priority. The ocurance, prevention/detection and severity are all factors. Obviously the occurance of being hit by a batted ball is very low for a coach. But as Coolbaugh showed the severity is very high and that is why prevention/detection is needed despite the low occurance.
November 14th, 2007 at 1:30 am
Pip:
Unless I misunderstand, the data you cite on Edmonds shows he plays a below average centerfielder and the So is the superior fly-catcher for the Cardinals… Do you really think J’Ed defense is still “pretty good.”
November 14th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
You guys may be right on the Lidge deal. We should revisit the deal next year at this time! I guess I liked it mostly for the Astros from a philosophical viewpoint. But it’s worth noting that Lidge’s FIP and HR/G numbers have been steadily increasing despite improving support/luck numbers (DER and HR/F). I hadn’t considered the compensatory draft pick, though — good catch.
November 14th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Helmets: Good observations, Zubin. I’m really not that bothered by the coaches wearing them (like John Olerud, who was one of my favorites, they shouldn’t be begrudged their desire to live). It’s more of an aesthetic thing: I prefer natural to the video-gamelike caricatures that so much of baseball looks like today. Nice risk-assessment, btw.
November 14th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
JEd was at 99.32, and So was at 103.35. But Taguchi’s number should be downplayed, since it was based so much smaller a sample (less than half the balls in play as JEd). Do I consider JEd’s defense pretty good? Indeed, I do, since he was 11th among CFs who has as many balls in play as he did. I’m not claiming he’s as good as ever, but he’s still putting up better PMR numbers than Rowand, Wells and Sizemore.
November 16th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Re: Base coaches wearing helmets…
Coolbaugh wasn’t hit in the head. The ball hit him in his neck. The sudden pressure in his carotid artery caused a fatally sudden spike in blood pressure to his brain and aneurysms. A helmet wouldn’t have saved his life—nothing would have short of Mike seeing the ball coming.
November 16th, 2007 at 11:20 pm
Thanks Liam
I didn’t know that and I can’t believe I was alone in my ignorance.
November 17th, 2007 at 1:51 am
I should have left a link so’s youse know I’m not just making things up. Google news search brings up this.