Sorting through the scuttlebutt
ESPN’s Winter Meetings blog has had a few morsels of Cardinal news to chew on, so here’s some reaction.
Chris Capuano isn’t the only left-handed starter on the Cardinals’ shopping list. St. Louis has talked to Cleveland about Cliff Lee, with Anthony Reyes and/or catching prospect Bryan Anderson mentioned as possibilities to return to the Indians. Arizona recently talked to the Indians about Lee, but the teams don’t look like a match anymore now that the Diamondbacks have traded outfielder Carlos Quentin to the White Sox.
We’re not sure what Cliff Lee offers that Anthony Reyes doesn’t, other than more arm problems, more age, a higher salary and a higher expected FIP. Maybe it’s that he’s a lefty, which is about as significant as saying that he eats Cheerios for breakfast. If it’s lefties — or simply good pitchers in general — that the Cardinals are after, Capuano is the best bet:
Even then, Reyes is still three years younger and won’t cost anything to obtain. How about acquiring Capuano and keeping Reyes?
Kip Wells isn’t likely to attract a big market as a starter after going 7-17 with a 5.70 ERA for St. Louis, so his agents, Alan and Randy Hendricks, are marketing him as a set-up man this winter. Wells has always had a strong arm, and the hope is he might blossom in a new role.
If you use the lamestream media numbers — W-L record and ERA — you’re going to keep your distance from old Kip. But as we’ve noted before, Wells is actually one of the most appealing of a thin crop of free-agent pitchers. If his agents are marketing him as a setup man, all the more reason to sign him: Pay him reliever dollars and slot him into the rotation as a fifth starter/long reliever. The Cardinals could do much worse.
Talks between the Cardinals and Brewers about third baseman Scott Rolen have cooled because the Cardinals are hesitant to trade Rolen within the division. The clubs were talking about a deal that would have sent Rolen to Milwaukee for pitcher Chris Capuano and a top prospect. The Brewers also would have paid all of the $33 million in salary Rolen is owed over the next three years, while the Cardinals would have assumed the $14 million in deferred salary and what remained of Rolen’s $5 million signing bonus. That trade is unlikely to get finalized, but the Cardinals are talking with the Giants and Dodgers about Rolen. And it’s possible, though not probable, they could complete a deal with one of those teams before the meetings end Thursday.
The P-D’s Joe Strauss comments that management worries that even with injuries, trading Rolen within the division could come back to haunt the team. Of course it could. But chances are that the 33-year-old Rolen won’t, or at least won’t with consistency for the next three years , which is what the Cardinals should be looking at. But the intradivision argument is a canard: With the Wild Card, divisional distinctions are less meaningful. At any rate, this view of a Rolen-Capuano deal doesn’t consider the positive aspect of the intradivisional dynamic: If the Cardinals play the Brewers with Capuano on the mound for St. Louis, it’s unlikely that Rolen would hurt them at all: he’s a career .241 OBP/.195 GPA hitter vs. the lefty. It works both ways: Cardinal management should welcome the opportunity to throw Capuano against their divisional rival.
According to one National League executive, the Cardinals are getting "a lot of play" on pitcher Anthony Reyes, a former top prospect who has failed to click with manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan. "He’s a four-seam guy, and they want him to be a sinkerballer," the executive said of Reyes. Last year, Reyes went 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA in 107 1/3 innings with the Cardinals.
We’re sure that plenty of teams would be willing to take such a problem child off the Cardinals’ hands. Talk about regretting a trade. (Oh, and nice use of stats, Crasnick — and you call yourself a SABR member!)
The Cardinals have also made it clear that they’re willing to talk trade about any of their outfielders other than No. 1 prospect Colby Rasmus. That means Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan and Jim Edmonds could all be in play here in Nashville. Edmonds, however, has a no-trade clause and would have to sign off on any deal. He’s from Southern California, and the Padres have been mentioned as a possibility.
As we noted in yesterday’s comments, Edmonds is the one guy who should not be traded, seeing as he’s likely to give the team value in 2008. For those who are opposed to "selling low" on Rolen, how about selling high on Ankiel?
The Mariners have expressed an interest in Mark Loretta, a baseabll [sic] source said. The Mariners met with Loretta’s agent on Tuesday morning and said they’d like to sign him as a utility infielder, and will likely offer the veteran what the Rockies would offer, somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million for one year. Loretta was offered arbitration by the Astros and could take a 50 percent pay cut if he signs with another team.
ZiPS projects Loretta to have a .344 OBP next year. If he can’t get at least Cesar Izturis money ($2.85 mil base), he needs to fire his agent.

December 6th, 2007 at 12:37 am
Neither a duck nor a winglet:
The problem with an intradivision trade of Rolen is that the Cardinals play each division rival 10 more times than they do teams on the left coast. The pain of a bad trade is much more direct. Furthermore, statistically the best chance any team has of a playoff berth is a division championship (1/6 for the Cardinals). Chances of a wildcard berth are close to a third of that (1/16).
Water holes:
Are you a serious advocate of a Wells resigning? I agree he is likely to be a bargain signing. However, don’t the public relations or psychological considerations outweigh the sabermetric considerations on this one?
Joints just above the foot:
I’m not sure how “high” everybody is on Rick. He had a nice start to his ML rebirth, but most of the goodwill that was there disappeared with the PED allegations or revelations, if you prefer.
December 6th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
Zubin–
The Cardinals should look at the other side of the coin with Rolen, though: Chances are slim (and will get slimmer) that he will “avenge” a trade or “haunt them, and there’s a good chance (depending on whom they get for him) that the player(s) they get will be able to do the same thing to the rival. Oh, and I figure that the straight chances of winning the WC are 1 in 13, after removing the three division winners.
But don’t worry: I’m not a serious advocate of Wells. You’re right in that it would be a PR nightmare, which is too bad, since I think much of Wells’ negative perception was rooted in the PD’s coverage of him.
As for Ankiel: PED guilt is overrated. It didn’t seem to hurt Jose Guillen, for instance.
December 7th, 2007 at 12:12 am
Pip:
I agree that the Cards should cut the best deal they can on ScoRo. However that isn’t to say that there isn’t a disadvantage to trading within your own division. I stand embarrassed for missing the WC odds.
IMHO, Kip dug his own hole.
Point on Ankiel is that I’m not so sure how “high” other GMs are on the guy.
December 7th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
Happens to the best of us, Zubin.
Yeah, with a projected .285 OBP, I’m not sure why anyone would be “high” on Ankiel.
December 28th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
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