Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Cardinals’ 2008 Lineups: Five scenarios

It’s nigh on the Ides of March, and if we’re not mistaken, the non-pitching component of the roster shakes out as 11 players set and two spots to be filled by four candidates (more on that in a bit). Six of the likely 13 position players were on the opening-day roster last season. So, given that the offensive side of the ledger is close to complete, how does it compare to the team’s 2007 opening-day roster? We’ll include actual VORP from the 2007 group and projected VORP for the 2008 would-be group (using Barton’s and Ryan’s 2008 VORP projections) :

2007 2008
C Molina 9.4 Molina 9.6
C Bennett -2.6 LaRue 2.3
IF Rolen 4.1 Glaus 27.7
IF Eckstein 20.7 Izturis -2.8
IF Kennedy -13.1 Kennedy 3.1
IF Miles 2.7 Miles -0.2
IF Pujols 72.1 Pujols 68.1
OF Schumaker 10.1 Schumaker 5.6
OF Duncan 17.3 Duncan 20.3
OF Edmonds 4.9 Ankiel 19.4
OF Taguchi 5.5 Ludwick 12.9
OF Wilson -3.9 Barton (Mather/Gonzalez) 0.9
U Spiezio 3.4 Ryan (Mather) 6.3
Total VORP 130.6 173.2

On paper, the 2008 batting squad looks every bit as good as the 2007 version; indeed, John Mozeliak has reason to claim, as he did in his P-D chat today, that “Offensively we should be better than a year ago.” Perhaps ironically, the team stands to gain the most beneftit is in the outfield, the area that would seem to be so much in flux right now. As we noted earlier, if our calculations are correct, two position-player spots are still up for grabs and will be taken by some combination of two of the following:

  • Juan Gonzalez
  • Brendan Ryan
  • Joe Mather
  • Brian Barton

Assuming that at least one of the pair will need to be able to play at least a corner-infield position, the only unacceptable pairing would be Gonzalez and Barton, since they are both outfield-only candidates (and Mozeliak may have given a big clue as to which of the two will stick, saying "Juan has done everything we have asked, and is signed to minor league contract, so in the end we do have more flexibility with him."). That leaves five possible roster scenarios:

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5
C Molina
C LaRue
IF Glaus
IF Izturis
IF Kennedy
IF Miles
IF Pujols
OF Ankiel
OF Duncan
OF Ludwick
OF Schumaker
OF Gonzalez Barton Mather
U Ryan Mather Ryan

Next, we’ll review the best lineups based on the first couple of scenarios.

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