Lineups: What is and what should never be, part 2
With the reassignment of Joe Mather and Colby Rasmus, et al, the Cardinals’ outfield picture has become a lot clearer. Similarly, it would seem that the infield and therefore the whole non-pitcher side of the 25-man roster has been more or less settled. That affords a chance to think about a realistic best lineup. How should Tony La Russa order these players? Once again, Sheehan’s rules and guidelines of thumb:
Rules:
* Get your best hitters the most plate appearances
* Guys who get on base should bat in front of guys who hit for power
* Within reason, separate same-side hitters, to make life hard for platoon-centric managersGuidelines:
*Speed is actually not that important in the top two lineup spots. Speed and stolen-base attempts both have more value in the fifth and sixth spots, in front of the worst batters in the seventh through ninth slots, who are more likely to make outs and less likely to pick up extra-base hits.
*The second leadoff hitter theory exists (i.e., pitcher batting eighth). You can put your pitcher in the eighth slot and gain a couple of extra runs per year.”
Here’s an updated view of the lineup spots that players have seen this spring (you can brush up on your uniform numbers!):
| 55 | 66 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 16 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 21 | |
| 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
Using the most common players, the lineup would then be:
| 1 | Schumaker (#55) |
| 2 | Barton (#66) |
| 3 | Pujols (#5) |
| 4 | Glaus (#8) |
| 5 | Ankiel/Duncan (#24/#16) |
| 6 | Ludwick (#47) |
| 7 | Molina (#4) |
| 8 | pitcher |
| 9 | Ryan/Izturis (#13/#3) |
But wait: Adam Kennedy (#7) — the second baseman — needs a place to play (presumably subbing for one of the four outfielders). And where Kennedy hits is one of our three keys to the lineup:
- Troy Glaus bats second.
- Chris Duncan or Ryan Ludwick — and not Rick Ankiel — bats cleanup.
- Adam Kennedy doesn’t bat higher than sixth.
Here’s how we come to those conclusions:
- #1: With an overwhelming plurality of spring appearances as leadoff man, it’s all but certain that Skip Schumaker will start the season in the #1 spot, which, given the options, isn’t terrible.With projected OBPs of .329 and .322, neither Schumaker nor Brian Barton is a good fit for leadoff. But they’re both better than Kennedy, who offers an offense-dragging .313 OBP (or, heaven forbig, Aaron Miles — .307 — or Cesar Izturis — .303). The fact that they’re two of the fastest Cardinals (which isn’t saying much), with speed scores of 0.7 and 0.0, respectively, is more a matter of coincidence and not further validation of their leadoff qualifications. We hope that Kennedy’s slight speed advantage (0.1) over Schumaker isn’t what La Russa factors in when filling out the top of his lineup card. Barton’s high strikeout rate doesn’t scare us as much as it might most people, since he’s getting on base somehow, and leadoff men don’t need to make "productive outs" as often as others do.
- #2: La Russa was quoted as noticing that Glaus has better numbers batting 5th than 4th. But he’s even better batting 6th or 2nd:
Glaus splits PA OBP SLG GPA 2nd 161 .404 .684 .353 3rd 537 .354 .518 .289 4th 1687 .344 .471 .273 5th 1366 .365 .500 .289 6th 1148 .376 .533 .302 7th 256 .340 .430 .261 If Glaus projects to be the team’s second-best hitter, with a .282 GPA, behind Pujols, it stands to reason that he should get more at-bats. That means that if he should move anywhere, up in the order — not down — is the better move.
- #3: Albert Pujols will bat third, so he’s at least receiving more plate appearances than if he were cleaning up. Coupled with the pitcher-batting-eighth strategy, in which the goal is to get the lineup’s worst hitter as far away from its best, this is an optimal use of Pujols’s abilities (short of having him bat leadoff or second).
- #4: The big question du jour is whether Ankiel will hit cleanup. Since he projects to have one of the worst OBPs on the team, we have no argument with Ankiel batter down in the lineup, as opposed to 2nd. But if TLR is looking for a capable cleanup hitter who isn’t Troy Glaus, he should look no further than Ryan Ludwick and Chris Duncan, both of whom offer superior on-base and slugging skills to Ankiel:
Outfielder BB SO SPD OBP SLG GPA Duncan 53 107 -0.2 .351 .479 .278 Ludwick 34 86 -0.2 .331 .475 .268 Ankiel 45 130 -0.2 .315 .474 .260 Barton 45 123 0.7 .329 .385 .244 Schumaker 25 51 0.0 .322 .375 .239 Now it may be that TLR doesn’t want three consecutive righties in the second-through-fourth spots, which is understandable. In that case, Duncan needs to be either 2nd or 4th.
- #7: Adam Kennedy has batted leadoff, 2nd, 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th in spring games. Offering neither on-base nor slugging skill, Kennedy’s lone offensive weapons — decent speed and good contact hitting — are best deployed in the lower echelons of the order, when "manufacturing" runs is mandated.
So, our favorite lineup at this point — assuming that Kennedy and Izturis start — looks like this:
| 1 | Barton | CF |
| 2 | Glaus | 3B |
| 3 | Pujols | 1B |
| 4 | Duncan | LF |
| 5 | Ludwick | RF |
| 6 | Molina | C |
| 7 | Kennedy | 2B |
| 8 | Pitcher | P |
| 9 | Izturis | SS |
We tried that out in Pinto’s lineup analysis tool and, excepting Pujols as the first or second batter, the tool likes Glaus in the two hole, Duncan or Ludwick batting cleanup, Molina and Kennedy six and seven, and the pitcher and Izturis rounding out the starting nine. The lineup would generate around 4.72 Runs/Game, up slightly from 4.48 in 2007. Will it happen? It’s not an unreasonable proposal, after all. Hope springs eternal, right?
March 18th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Good food for thought. A couple things:
1. Without 500 PAs at 2nd, I’m not sure how much value I place in the numbers for Glaus. It also does not take into account protection for AP, which must have some value beyond the numbers. I still think batting him 4th or 5th is the way to go.
2. I understand this is a theoretical exercise, but is Barton in CF really legitimate? What are the odds he actually sees playing time there? And if not, that means the lineup has to be figured with Schu or Ankiel hitting somewhere. Shoot, Ankiel converted to an outfielder; despite James’ defensive spectrum, any hope to make him at least a 2Bman?
March 18th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Thanks for the thoughts.
1. 500 PAs is a decent sample, I think. To be sure, there are other factors involved. But it certainly doesn’t indicate that Glaus would be a colossal failure if he were to hit 2nd, which is really all that’s needed, I think. If you bat him 4th/5th, you’re really wasting his abilities, since he projects as the team’s second-best hitter. Any particular reason you prefer him that low?
2. Well, that’s a good question. I tried to come up with the best, most realistic lineup. Barton is the most suspect, since, as you point out (and the spring numbers bear out), Schumaker will likely be in the lineup before Barton will. My “3 keys” still apply: If Ankiel is in the lineup, he should bat no higher than 5th. As for Ankiel’s ability to defy the defensive spectrum, he used to be an outfielder in h.s., so I don’t consider him to be a full “convert.” I’ll try to find out the last time a lefthanded second baseman played.
March 19th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Yea, forgot about the LH thing with Ankiel. Good point.
For Glaus, here’s my thought: if your best player is Pujols, you do what you can to protect him. Because while the numbers are what they are, you’re basically wasting Pujols SLG if they pitch around him all the time, a statistic, incidentally, that’s not taking into account by the metrics for this exercise.
So, who will provide the best protection, while still not throwing a wrench into everything? If we exclude Ankiel, which I think is valid, really all we are left with is Glaus and Duncan. As a practical matter, if we go with Duncan, as suggested above, were basically providing no protection against lefties (setting aside whatever the numbers might show, because for this discussion, perception might be more important then reality). Against righties, I think Duncan has a valid argument — both his OBP and OPS are slightly higher than Glaus, though statistically I’m not sure its that significant, and Glaus for whatever reason certainly hits better at 5. At 5, he still presents some protection to Pujols even with Duncan at 4. To me, that is more valuable — though, albeit, one that may not be quantifiable — then adding another (perhaps) 50 points in OBP at 2.
So, if it was me, I’d flip Glaus between 4 and 5 depending on wether its a righty or lefty. That still leaves the Cardinals perpetual problem of who to bat 2nd I’m still not sure some combo of Ludwick/Barton may not be a bad solution.
This may be all a wasted exercise, however. I agree the numbers put Glaus at 2. My argument is one of those “gut feeling” issues that may never be quantifiable.