When we called Todd Wellemeyer "Mr. TTO" a couple of weeks ago, it was based more on anecdotal evidence than real data. After the Colonel’s performance last night in Pittsburgh, we thought we’d put a little more consideration into the moniker.

In his 59-FIGS outing, Wellemeyer pitched to a career-high 27 batters, no small feat in itself (especially given the post-Milwaukee state of the bullpen). True to his 2008 form, he controlled much of his own fate, striking out five, walking one and yielding one home run. For good measure, he also hit a batter. In the other 19 plate appearances against him, batters put the ball in play, some falling for hits, some being converted to outs.

We supposed that The Colonel led the Cardinal staff in controlling the game, which could be expressed as a percentage of plate appearances that result in one of the Three True Outcomes (home run, strikeout, walk). Since a hit-by-pitch is technically also not a ball put in play, we’ll also consider the handful of HBPs. Among Cardinal starters, Wellemeyer is indeed the leader — NIP is the number of "Not In Play" outcomes; NIP% is those outcomes as a percentage of total batters faced:

Erstwhile 25-man roster member starter Brad Thompson is the only competition. But it’s one thing to lead the pitch-to-contact-instructed Cardinal staff; it’s another to see how Wellemeyer ranks in the league (as starter, min. 70 BF), whose average NIP% is 28.5%:

The Colonel finds himself in some good company — several bona fide power pitchers (defined as SO+BB/IP > 1.00). It may be too early to wonder, but as the Cardinals ponder their pitching future, such pitchers as Wellemeyer — that is, a power pitcher — "has a dramatically higher expectation for future wins than does a finesse picther of the same age and ability." As Sean Forman elaborates :

• Strikeout rates are the best long-term predictor of a player’s career.
• A pitcher with a high strikeout rate can slip somewhat and still be successful.
• A pitcher with a low strikeout rate who slips will likely be hit very hard and leave baseball quickly.
• Young power pitchers are the best bets for long-term success.

Looking beyond 2008, with several other pitchers around the same age (29) — Mark Mulder, Kyle Lohse and Joel Pineiro — all of whom are classified as "finesse" pitchers, Wellemeyer seems like the best bet for continued success (if indeed his 2008 success is more than fleeting).

Finally, just for grins, let’s find out where Wellemeyer stands among Cardinal pitching seasons all-time. What is the team "record" for NIP% (min. 600 BF), and who holds it?

As Mike Shannon would say, "old Abner’s done it again!" Go to the head of the class if you answered "Rick Ankiel," whose record Wellemeyer could very realistically break this season. Again, Wellemeyer would be proud to be associated with these leaders. He may not be Bob Gibson, but it’s possible that he could resemble another "meyer" — Todd Stottlemyre — in his age-29 season and into his early 30s. As far as his pitching goes, he controls his own destiny.

This entry was posted by Pip on Thursday, April 24th, 2008 at 3:15 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.