Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Troy Glaus, home runs and runs created

Troy Glaus hit his first (and to date, only) home run Sunday afternoon, to much fanfare (proof that Cardinal fans still love to make newcomers feel welcome: Glaus received a curtain call for the feat). The storyline is that Glaus may not be hitting home runs, but he’s at least driving runners in. MLB.com’s Matthew Leach noted Monday that Glaus was "on pace for 100 RBIs," and, after Tuesday night’s game, he’s on pace for around 122 RBIs (not bad for a guy who was hitting .242 just 10 days ago). But there’s a lot of noise in that number. After all, anyone batting fourth or fifth in the Cardinal lineup is going to drive in some runs, even if he’s flying out to right field half the time (as Glaus seems to neverendingly do); Tuesday night, Glaus had a total of four runners on base during his at-bats and leads the team with an incredible 107 runners on base during his plate appearances so far this season. How many runs is he actually creating, without respect to the others in the lineup?

As of Tuesday morning, Glaus had created 15 runs (basic formula) and hit one home run; at that rate, Glaus would end up the campaign with 86 runs created and six home runs. And that got us to thinking about Cardinal batters who’ve knocked in a lot of runs despite hitting fewer than 10 home runs. The modern-day Cardinal poster child for the "accomplishment" is Tommy Herr, who many fans know racked up 110 RBIs on a mere eight circuit clouts back in 1985 (having guys like Vince Coleman, who stole 110 bases, and Willie McGee, who stole 56, ahead of you helps). Herr, like Glaus, had ample opportunities, not reflected in a context-dependent counting stat like RBIs: He led the 1985 squad in runners on base with 450.

So let’s use Runs Created and see where Herr — and a projected Glaus — rank all-time among Cardinal batters with fewer than 10 home runs (min. 90 RCs):

Year Player G 2B 3B HR TB RBI OBP RC
1920 Rogers Hornsby 149 44 20 9 329 94 .431 141
1899 Jesse Burkett 141 21 8 7 279 71 .463 129
1929 Taylor Douthit 150 42 7 9 289 62 .416 119
1923 Jim Bottomley 134 34 14 8 280 94 .425 118
1900 Jesse Burkett 141 11 15 7 265 68 .429 113
1963 Dick Groat 158 43 11 6 284 73 .377 106
1933 Pepper Martin 145 36 12 8 273 57 .387 105
1971 Lou Brock 157 37 7 7 272 61 .385 105
1979 Garry Templeton 154 32 19 9 308 62 .331 102
1930 Taylor Douthit 154 41 10 7 283 93 .364 102
1929 Frankie Frisch 138 40 12 5 255 74 .397 101
1895 Duff Cooley 132 9 20 7 261 75 .382 99
1959 Joe Cunningham 144 28 6 7 219 60 .453 99
1954 Red Schoendienst 148 38 8 5 261 79 .366 97
1982 Lonnie Smith 156 35 8 8 257 69 .381 96
1917 Rogers Hornsby 145 24 17 8 253 66 .385 96
1982 Keith Hernandez 160 33 6 7 239 94 .397 96
1985 Tom Herr 159 38 3 8 248 110 .379 95
1973 Lou Brock 160 29 8 7 259 63 .364 95
1912 Ed Konetchy 143 26 13 8 245 82 .389 94
1977 Garry Templeton 153 19 18 8 279 79 .336 94
1911 Ed Konetchy 158 38 13 6 247 88 .384 93
1963 Curt Flood 158 34 9 5 267 63 .345 92
1952 Red Schoendienst 152 40 7 7 263 67 .347 91
1899 Emmet Heidrick 146 21 14 2 249 82 .368 91
1928 Taylor Douthit 154 35 3 3 241 43 .384 91
1987 Ozzie Smith 158 40 4 0 230 75 .392 90
1964 Curt Flood 162 25 3 5 257 46 .356 90

Herr is the only one of the bunch who had more than 100 RBIs, yet he’s well down on the list with "only" 95 RCs. Interestingly, the 1982 champions had two players on the list, Skates and The Greatest-Fielding First Baseman of All-Time, Keith Hernandez. (Speaking of teams, in 1903, the entire team had only eight home runs and created 430 runs.) As for Glaus, his would-be 86 Runs Created, while impressive, won’t make it into the best, er, 28 seasons of no-pop run creators. That’s not to say that he won’t have given the Cardinals a return on their investment: 86 RCs would be an improvement from last year (he had 70) and more than Scott Rolen provided in 2007, as well (51). It’s just that his RBI total may not be telling the whole story, or simply telling the story that he has been in the right place at the right time. After all, with those 107 runners on base during his at-bats, he’s also on pace to break Willie McGee’s team-record of 544, set in 1993 (since at least 1959). For the record, McGee had 105 RBI that year — and 77 Runs Created.

2 Responses to “Troy Glaus, home runs and runs created”

  1. Cardinals4Ever Says:

    Interesting train of thought on sub-10 HR and RC … I really was a Tom Herr fan …

    However, I think it is a moot point concerning Troy Glaus … though off to an incredibly slow start, he’ll end up hitting between 20 and 30 HR this year … that’s why it’s so exciting to see what he’s already done (RBI and 2B wise) and where the team is with it … when he finally gets going, this team is going to be that much better and really fun to watch …

  2. Pip Says:

    Thanks, C4E…

    It’s an interesting question as to how Glaus will end up. I used Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS Plus projection tool to see what the rest of Glaus’s season may hold, based on what he’s done so far:

    Glaus BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO
    Projected Rest of Season .257 .359 .441 401 54 103 26 0 16 67 62 87
    Projected Total .257 .358 .435 501 63 129 38 0 17 88 76 108

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