Wainwright’s curveball at Coors
The Cardinals couldn’t continue their winning ways Wednesday night in Colorado, but it wasn’t the starting pitching’s fault: Adam Wainwright accounted for .396 WPA, while the rest of the team had -.896.
The Cardinal ace is successful largely because he throws a killer yakker (not unlike his doppelganger, Matt Morris, once did). But coming into Coors Field, where the thin air is to curveball pitchers what kryptonite is to Superman, how would Wainwright fare? Would he change his game plan and throw fewer breaking balls? Would the air even have that much effect on his curveballs in the first place?
To find out, we parsed the data from that fabulous service known as MLB Gameday (and no, we don’t get paid extra for the mention). First, let’s look at Wainwright’s pitch distribution at Busch Stadium so far this season (in four starts), then his distribution at Coors Field Wednesday:
Interestingly, Wainwright didn’t exactly pull the curveball from his arsenal; he threw it about as often as he has at home. Actually, if one considers the slider to be a breaking pitch (the average break on Wainwright’s home slider is about eight inches), Wainwright threw a lot more breaking pitches against the Rockies (46%, compared to 38% at home). Why wasn’t he featuring the fastball more? Let’s see just how fast it was compared to what he throws it at home:
| Ballpark | Avg. Fastball Speed |
| Busch 2008 | 90.8 |
| Coors 5/7 | 89.9 |
So for whatever reason (altitude or some latent hangover from his 125-pitch game on April 26), Wainwright’s fastball was a tad slower than usual, and he threw it less often. Okay, so what about the curveball — was it breaking as much?
| Ballpark | Avg. Curveball Break Length |
| Busch 2008 | 15.7 |
| Coors 5/7 | 14.1 |
The air must’ve affected it a little, shaving as much as an inch and a half off Wainwright’s Uncle Charlie. But in the absence of his fast fastball and his arcing curveball, Wainwright went with the pitch that was working: his slider. He threw it slower than usual (intentionally or unintentionally?) and as a result got some more break out of it:
| Ballpark | Slider Break | Slider Speed |
| Busch 2008 | 7.7 | 84.4 |
| Coors 5/7 | 8.2 | 83.5 |
So whether it was out of necessity or some kind of reworked game plan for the unique weaknesses of the Rockies’ batters, Wainwright adapted — and succeeded. It should be interesting to see what kind of repertoire he breaks out in his followup start. Too bad he won’t get to pitch in Coors again this season; the thinner air might’ve shortchanged his curveball, but it didn’t affect his overall game.
May 8th, 2008 at 8:32 am
Great stuff. I noted in the PD story that he was using a four-seam change instead of a two-seam due to the altitude. Don’t know what that effect had on his other pitches, but whatever he was doing, showing he can adjust is just another sign he’s a good one.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
so, DG, you’re suggesting that the extra seams account for that extra MPH?
It’s interesting that both of the pitches (mentioned here) were off a bit in velocity.
Also, Pip, I would think the 50% increase in the changeup is significant. Though I was surprised to see that the increase in sliders and changeups came at the expense of the fastballs than the curve.
I wonder if that’s Duncan’s influence there. the reasoning might go something like this (albeit a bit simplistic): many pitchers can’t get their curves, splitters, and other breaking stuff to work quite as well at Coors, even with the humidor for the baseballs. Thus, they tend to throw more fastballs. the Rockies, being very experienced in their own ballpark, also noting this trend, tend to expect more of them. thus, Duncan, or a wily wagonmaker might conjecture, i’ll throw the fastball less often, but not with a curveball that is more likely to be a (even if a relative) dud, but will throw the fastball less often.
then there’s the equally ration description that Wainwright just went with his gut and what felt right last night (poetry, wholly unintended).
May 8th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Now THAT’S good stuff, Pip! Love the analysis and the data to back it up.
Watching Wainwright last night, I couldn’t help but notice how many times he got the Rockies’ batters to chase the slider, but the pure poetry was his last pitch, a 91 m.p.h. fastball with which he painted the outside corner to strike out Baker to end the 7th.
He probably knew it was his last inning, and made sure he closed it out with an authoritative bang and just “a little extra.”
I’ve always believed if you give a team an extra out (no offense to Pujols’ miss on the foul in the 8th… he is actually human after all!) they’re going to beat you, and unfortunately that’s how the game played out.
I look forward to Carpenter’s return late this summer, but in his absence will enjoy as many of these outings as AW is willing to treat us to watching!