Izzy: Bum or bum rap?
One of our long-held rules of cheering is to not boo a player who appears to be giving sincere effort. That is, we don’t boo a player for bad results if he’s trying. With the Cardinals returning to town to begin a six-game homestand tonight, how will fans treat erstwhile Cardinal "closer" Jason Isringhausen (we have a dream when such clumsy constructs as "closer" will be a thing of the past), who has provided no shortage of bad results lately? Is he a bum, or is he merely getting a bum rap?
The chattering and scribbling class has made much of Izzy’s saves and blown saves (both flatteringly and derisively, respectively), but the save deserves about as much commendation as the win, which is to say, little to none. As we’ve seen with wins, the save (and blown save) can peacefully exist in baseball society, so long as no one uses them for any meaningful assessments, including managers. So with Isringhausen having been deposed, do his five blown saves merit the move? Is Jason Isringhausen really stinking up the joint — as even he appears to concede — or is something else going on?
To find out, we turn to The Hardball Times. First, we’ll compare Izzy’s actual ERA — a number that includes a lot of noise — with his expected FIP (fielding-independent ERA), which attempts to remove much of a pitcher’s "luck" from the equation:
| Year | ERA | xFIP | xFIP-ERA |
| 2004 | 2.87 | 3.54 | 0.67 |
| 2005 | 2.14 | 3.70 | 1.56 |
| 2006 | 3.55 | 5.07 | 1.52 |
| 2007 | 2.48 | 4.33 | 1.85 |
| 2008 | 7.02 | 4.62 | -2.40 |
By comparing the difference between ERA and xFIP, in which a negative number means "unlucky," it’s easy to see that the Izzyman has been better than his ERA would indicate (and, if anyone would care to look, that his 2007 campaign perhaps wasn’t as stellar as it appeared, perhaps setting up some unrealistic expectations for 2008). So what is contributing to his bad "luck"? Let’s dig a little deeper:
| Year | LD% | GB% | IF/F | K/G | BB/G | HR/G |
| 2004 | 19.0% | 44.4% | 14.7% | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.63 |
| 2005 | 20.2% | 50.9% | 17.0% | 8.0 | 4.2 | 0.63 |
| 2006 | 17.9% | 43.8% | 12.9% | 7.9 | 5.7 | 1.51 |
| 2007 | 18.1% | 44.5% | 5.9% | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0.58 |
| 2008 | 23.6% | 50.9% | 14.3% | 5.9 | 4.0 | 0.99 |
The things that jump out here are the slight uptick in Line-Drive percentage and the not-insignificant K/G rate, which evidences a progressive decline in Izzy’s skills. Also, his HR/G rate is the worst it’s been other than that relatively dismal 2006 season. Even so, the Home-Run rate isn’t too far out of normal (league average is .90). He’s not walking any more than usual, and he’s even getting more groundballs this season. What’s going on?
Could it be that Isringhausen’s troubles are mostly a simple matter of pitching in bad "luck"? Check out his DER and HR/F% this season compared to his previous years:
| Year | DER | HR/F |
| 2004 | .758 | 8.2% |
| 2005 | .759 | 10.7% |
| 2006 | .760 | 18.5% |
| 2007 | .788 | 6.6% |
| 2008 | .673 | 17.7% |
The rate at which his defense (so far this year) has turned balls in play into outs — .673 — is a good 15% worse than in 2007. That accounts for much of the pain Izzy has experienced on the mound. And not only compared to last year but with the team this year, that DER is low: Cardinal pitchers collectively are seeing .712 of their BIP converted to outs. Similarly, the rate at which Izzy’s fly balls are flying into the bleachers is an aberration: According to THT, about 11% to 12% of outfield flies are hit for home runs (NL average this season is 11%) and that, for pitchers, significant variations from 11% are probably the result of "luck." With the long ball, Izzy has gotten some bad breaks (and again, last year had a bit of misleading good "luck" with home runs).
So, simply put, if a few more of those balls find their ways into fielders’ gloves and the wind blows a couple of those home runs back into play — things over which Izzy has no significant control — Izzy is still closing games and there’s no closer kerfuffle.
To be sure, Izzy is on the hook for the decreasing strikeout rate, and as Bernie Miklasz smartly points out, "that’s bad news for him" — just as it would be for any other pitcher whose fate hangs in the balance of his fielders’ defense and "luck." That lower K rate may be explained by Izzy increasingly preferring his cutter, which he’s throwing 38.8% of the time (compared to his career rate of 27.5%) to his fastball (41.6% this year, 45.2% career). But the point is that we shouldn’t confuse bad "luck" with bad pitching. So we might amend our rule on booing: Don’t boo a player for bad results if he’s trying — or if he’s merely "unlucky." Cardinal fans are known for their acumen; they’ll do well to inform themselves about the facts of Isringhausen’s situation. After all, he’s just pitching in some bad "luck."
May 14th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
call me crazy, but is it possible that his poor pitching is affecting these numbers?
luck might be part of it, but simply pitching poorly might be as well. I’m not so sure I am interpreting these numbers in the same light, save the seemingly positive FIP #s.
LD% increases because he’s throwing junk up there.
GB% increases, but they’re getting hit harder (w/some luck adding to them finding holes. but harder hit balls are more likely to find holes)
K/9 – down bc the quality of pitches are not as good.
HR/9 – up bc the quality of pitches are down
DER – fielders not making as many plays bc the ball’s getting hit so much harder (??? is this possible?)
HR/F – again, bc his pitches are finding too much of the plate and not with the movement we’re accustomed to with Izzy, they’re sailing out of the park.
It seems his pitches have been more up in the zone this year and w/out the normal movement. Now you add to that a reduced arsenal he’s throwing, and is it any wonder he’s getting hit?
i’m not sure what the issue is, just seems to me that luck may not be the largest part of the answer.
what do you think?
May 16th, 2008 at 11:50 am
[...] Fungoes takes a look at Jason Isringhausen. Has he truly been as bad as advertised, or has he simply been a victim of bad luck? The adjusted numbers show that Izzy has always had a lower than expected ERA, which suggests that he has been lucky throughout his career. At the same time, his 2008 ERA is way too inflated. He has been very unlucky after the ball has left the bat, and the numbers say that Izzy’s luck should turn around in a hurry. Just do not expect him to post an ERA below 3.00. [...]