Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Decision ‘08: Berkman vs. Pujols

Along with sliding into first base and making the first or third out at third base, bunting on the first pitch you see after hitting a home run (when you’re leading the majors in Isolated Power, to boot!) ranks as one of the most foolhardy plays in the game. That’s exactly what Lance Berkman did in the sixth inning of Sunday’s Astros-Cardinals tilt, which the Cardinals eventually won 5-4.

Whether it actually cost the Astros the game is unlikely but will never be known. With the Astros leading 3-0 at the time and "Magic" Wandy Rodriguez pitching like a mound wizard, the last nine Astro batters could’ve popped out bunting and an Astro victory would have never been in doubt. If you’re keeping track at home, you figure that had Berkman not offed himself bunting, he had around a 50-50 chance of reaching base against Lohse (he’s hitting righties for a .468 OBP this season). Although Berkman reaching first would’ve improved the Astros’ chances of winning only negligably, it seemed to change the tone of the game (which went from the Astros being in command to them being snakebitten).

We bring it up not to bash Berkman (the only player we’ve even heard of who never made a mistake was Joe DiMaggio, and even that claim is dubious; after all, he did eat at Dinky Donuts), but as a means of comparing and contrasting the Houston first baseman with Albert Pujols, whom Berkman leads in the All-Star balloting 585,369 to 489,394 as of June 3. Though we can’t recall and can’t imagine Pujols ever bunting on an at-bat following a home run, he makes his share of bad decisions — usually more in the realms of baserunning, fielding and public relations. Still, Pujols is generally regarded one of if not the Best Player in the Game Today. Why is he trailing Lance Berkman in the voting? Herein some possible explanations:

Personality: Pujols is known for his charitable work and usually walks his Christian talk. Yet, he has been known what might be called a prickly or surly side, and has occasionally expressed himself in ill-advised pronouncements: to wit, his comments about Tom Glavine after Game 1 of the 2006 NLCS, his defense of Barry Bonds, dissing Ryan Howard over the MVP, running down the scout who discovered him and his expelling the KTVI cameraman). Conversely, Berkman is by all accounts as kind and harmless as his chubby face would indicate. Berkman might be hated for what he does on the field, but off the field, he’s as likeable as anyone in the game. Put it another way: If Pujols didn’t play for your team, would you like him?

The new-face factor: Call it need for change, call it cheering for the underdog: people don’t like the same guy to win all the time (unless it’s Cal Ripken). Granted, Fat Elvis has been in four midsummer classics, but he’s started only once. Pujols has started four times, and last year began to feel the effects of the New-Face Factor when Prince Fielder was voted in.

Coastal bias: When you’re elected to start an All-Star Game, you need votes beyond merely your own constituency. We have yet to see a breakdown of votes across the country a la red and blue states, but we’re guessing that Pujols doesn’t get much love from the coasts, what with the latent Mets-Cardinals rivalry (Pujols didn’t do much for his image in that 2006 showdown) and his more-recent terrorism of the San Diego Padres.

"Naturalness": Though fans haven’t demonstrated any real backlash against players known or suspected to have used PEDs, we still figure that people prefer someone who seems to have accomplished his success without resorting to cheating. Due to his out-of-the-blue career trajectory, questionable connections and failure to do much to clear his name despite his own shrill protests, Pujols’s reputation is somewhat foggy. On the other hand, Berkman was the 1997 College Player of the Year and was rated one of baseball’s top prospects before he broke in with the Astros and has steered clear of The Clear, despite teammates Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Jeff Bagwell having been fingered for PED use. Now it’s certainly possible that Berkman is just as guilty of using PEDs as Pujols is possibly innocent, but his physique, which tends more toward lumpy than cut, doesn’t betray it.

The stats: Of course, the most convincing argument for Berkman to start at first base is that he’s actually having a better season. Fans typically don’t let stats stand in their way of voting, but as strong a season as Pujols is having, Berkman is a hair better, and fans may actually recognize it. Whether it’s hitting or fielding, Berkman leads Pujols in most of the categories that actually mean something:

Berkman Pujols
RC27 12.51 11.28
RC 65 53
GPA .387 .376
WPA 4.36 2.40
WS 19 14
WSAB 14 9
VORP 53.8 40.4
EQA .382 .373
MVP 9.03 5.40
RZR .901 .873
OOZ 23 21

There’s a lot of games between now and July, and Pujols may yet overtake his Houston counterpart in both the stats and the voting. Until then, perhaps Berkman — even with his boner Sunday afternoon — deserves our votes.

2 Responses to “Decision ‘08: Berkman vs. Pujols”

  1. Cardinal70 Says:

    When did the ballots go out, late April?

    Since May started, the Cards have been home 16 games and away 20. The Astros have been home 16 and away 19, so scheduling isn’t it.

    I do think that Berkman’s gotten a lot of pub for his strong start–it seemed like for a while there he was hitting a home run a night–and that sticks in people’s minds, especially where there isn’t a big-market alternative at hand. (Delgado, maybe Loney? Neither of them have an intense fan base.)

  2. Pip Says:

    Good comments. Yeah, the other big names around the league — Lee, Howard, Fielder, Delgado (as you noted) — are nowhere close to Berkman and Pujols in production this year.

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