Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

What is and what should never be: A sub-BA OBP

While scouting the recent transactions in our office fantasy league, we came across a player we’d not heretofore taken note of: Minnesota third baseman Brian Buscher. Buscher has apparently been hitting well since he was recalled a couple of weeks ago, and his batting average entering Wednesday’s action stood at a heady .368. What really caught out attention, though, was his on-base percentage: .366. Yes, you read that right, Buscher’s OBP is lower than his batting average.

It’s certainly possible, of course, for that to happen, if a batter has at least as many sacrifice flies (or, as Dodgers’ announcer Vin Scully more accurately calls them, "scoring fly balls") as bases on balls (the formula for OBP is H+BB+HBP/AB+BB+SF+HBP). And that’s exactly what Buscher has in 41 plate appearances so far: two sac flies and a walk.

And, as is our wont, that got us wondering if any Cardinals had ever accomplished the dubious feat. And indeed some had. We must warn you, though: This list is not for the novice Cardinal fan, as it will tax your trivial knowledge (not to mention, you’ll see some truly hideous numbers). If you can handle obscure names like Luis Arroyo and Lonnie Maclin and some OBPs like .095 and .067, here you go (listed by year):

Year Po Player AB H BB SO BA OBP SLG HBP SH SF
1954 P Tom Poholsky 27 4 0 4 .148 .143 .185 0 6 1
1955 P Luis Arroyo 56 13 0 13 .232 .228 .286 0 4 1
1957 OF Gene Green 15 3 0 3 .200 .188 .267 0 0 1
1957 P Herm Wehmeier 59 12 0 14 .203 .200 .237 0 0 1
1959 OF Chick King 7 3 0 2 .429 .375 .429 0 0 1
1960 OF John Glenn 31 8 0 9 .258 .250 .323 0 0 1
1961 OF Ed Olivares 30 5 0 4 .167 .161 .167 0 0 1
1962 P Bobby Shantz 13 2 0 7 .154 .143 .154 0 0 1
1965 P Tracy Stallard 68 6 0 26 .088 .087 .088 0 4 1
1970 P George Culver 17 3 0 5 .176 .158 .294 0 1 2
1973 P Rich Folkers 20 2 0 6 .100 .095 .100 0 1 1
1982 P Bruce Sutter 8 1 0 1 .125 .111 .125 0 2 1
1982 IF Kelly Paris 29 3 0 7 .103 .100 .103 0 0 1
1986 P Bob Forsch 76 13 0 24 .171 .169 .329 0 11 1
1990 P Omar Olivares 17 3 0 4 .176 .167 .412 0 0 1
1993 OF Lonnie Maclin 13 1 0 5 .077 .071 .077 0 0 1
1997 2B Roberto Mejia 14 1 0 5 .071 .067 .143 0 1 1

The list may not be complete, since sacrifices have only been reliably tracked for the last half-century or so (see the stat’s storied history). But it does reveal some curiosities. Several on the list are pitchers, as one would presume, including the well-known Bob Forsch, who had 14% of his plate appearances go for run-scoring flies back in 1986. But if you think that was something, hurler Tom Poholsky hit six sac flies for a rate of 21% back in 1954 (we’re not counting Bruce Sutter’s 22% over nine plate appearances in 1982). Ed and Omar Olivares will always be known as a Cardinal father-son combo, but they share more than blood. Interestingly, the club has had at least two "negative" OBP seasons in every decade since the SF came into existence, and yet no one in the twenty-aughts has turned the trick. Will 2008 be the year? Let’s see if anyone is close:

Player AB H BB BA OBP HBP SF OBP-BA
Nick Stavinoha 15 4 0 .267 .267 0 0 .000
Kyle Lohse 30 3 0 .100 .100 0 0 .000
Mitchell Boggs 4 0 0 .000 .000 0 0 .000
Mike Parisi 4 1 0 .250 .250 0 0 .000
Kelvin Jimenez 2 0 0 .000 .000 0 0 .000
Mark Worrell 2 1 0 .500 .500 0 0 .000
Kyle McClellan 1 0 0 .000 .000 0 0 .000
Ron Villone 1 0 0 .000 .000 0 0 .000
Adam Wainwright 40 9 1 .225 .238 0 1 .013
Todd Wellemeyer 25 4 1 .160 .185 0 1 .025

Everyone is keeping his OBP head above BA water so far. Will Roberto Mejia be the team’s last negative OBP-BA season? Nick Stavinoha may be the team’s best bet to be the first of the new millenium. If not, trading for Buscher is always an option. Do the Twins need a LOOGy, by chance?

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.