No-hitters: A tough act to follow (Cardinals-Cubs LiveBlog)
Today at Wrigley the Cardinals face Cub ace Carlos Zambrano, who is coming off a no-hitter in Houston Milwaukee. What can the Cardinals expect from El Toro on the heels of his feat? Is he on a hot streak, or is he due for a comedown in the wake of such an outstanding performance?
To get an idea, let’s look at Fielding-Independent Game Scores (FIGS) for some of the most-recent no-hitters:
| Date | Pitcher | BF | HR | BB | SO | FIGS |
| 18-May-04 | Randy Johnson | 27 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 85 |
| 6-Sep-06 | Aníbal Sánchez | 31 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 64 |
| 18-Apr-07 | Mark Buehrle | 27 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 73 |
| 12-Jun-07 | Justin Verlander | 30 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 76 |
| 1-Sep-07 | Clay Buchholz | 30 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 72 |
| 19-May-08 | Jon Lester | 29 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 74 |
| 9/14/2008 | Carlos Zambrano | 28 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 77 |
And how did those pitchers do in their followup starts?
| Date | Pitcher | BF | HR | BB | SO | FIGS | % of previous |
| 23-May-04 | Randy Johnson | 27 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 59 | 69.4% |
| 11-Sep-06 | Aníbal Sánchez | 26 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 57 | 88.1% |
| 23-Apr-07 | Mark Buehrle | 27 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 57 | 78.1% |
| 17-Jun-07 | Justin Verlander | 28 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 67 | 88.6% |
| 6-Sep-07 | Clay Buchholz | 11 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 56 | 77.3% |
| 25-May-08 | Jon Lester | 25 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 60 | 81.9% |
| 9/19/2008 | Carlos Zambrano | 62 | 80.6% |
Most of the pitchers fell off to pitch and averaged a 59 FIGS, which is about a league-average game (around 57 in the NL in 2007). That’s 80% of their no-hitter performance. Given Zambrano’s 77-FIGS outing on Sunday, that translates to a pretty good 62 FIGS today. We shall see.