As Cardinal fans ponder the not-so-big event of Albert Pujols’s minor elbow surgery, we begin our weeklong series on the biggest plays of the Cardinals’ 2008 season using Win-Probability Added. Today, we’ll look at the biggest loss of win probability by Cardinal opponents (that is, when the Cardinals increased their own chance of winning by shutting down an opponent):

-0.208: Carlos Delgado grounds into a double play, Jul. 26
Neither the Cardinals nor the Mets made the playoffs in 2008, but their rivalry still created some memorable games, not the least of which was this 14-inning affair at Shea. Erstwhile Cardinal Fernando Tatis haunted his old mates with a game-tying homer off Ryan Franklin in the ninth. The Mets then threatened to win it in the 10th when Carlos Delgado, who had already hit two home runs in the game, stepped in against Franklin, still pitching, with one out, runners on first and second and a hefty 70.8 % WP for the Mets. Franklin got the big bopper to ground into an inning-ending comebacker DP on a low-and-away changup and reset the WP to an even 50%.

-.212: Kevin Youkilis flies out, Jun. 20
The Cardinals got a little revenge on the Red Sox in 2008, winning two out of three at Fenway. The Cardinals went up 5-3 in the opener and handed the ball in the ninth to de facto closer Ryan Franklin. After Dustin Pedroia’s one-out double, Franklin struck out JD Drew to whittle Boston’s WP to 5.3%. But Manny Ramirez walked and Mike Lowell knocked in Pedroia and pushed Manny to third with a single to bring up Kevin Youkilis. The Greek God of Walks Youkilis flied out to end the threat and the game.

-.212: Luis Rodriguez grounds into a double play, Jul. 19
In their second game after the All-Star break, the Cardinals trailed the Cubs by two games as they hosted the Padres. The Cardinals came back from a 5-0 hole to lead 6-5 in the eighth. Ryan Franklin worked into and out of trouble, walking one and allowing a single as he faced pinch hitter Luis Rodriguez with one out and a 65.5 % chance of winning. Rodriguez hit Franklin’s 77-mph curveball to Aaron Miles, who flipped to Brendan Ryan to start a 4-6-3 twin killing and boost the Cardinals’ WPA to 86.8 %.

-.230: Garrett Atkins grounds into a double play, May 5
At Coors Field, the first-place Cardinals were enjoying a 2.5-game lead over the Cubs. Since the top of the third inning, neither the Rockies nor Cardinals led by more than one run, and the game was tied in the ninth when Pujols doubled and scored from second on Rick Ankiel’s infield groundout for a 6-5 lead.But the Rockies rallied in bottom of the ninth, with Jason Isringhausen walking Todd Helton, the would-be tying run, to bring up Garrett Atkins, who was 1-for-1 vs. Izzy to that point. Atkins swung at the first pitch, a high-tight fastball, and grounded into a 5-4-3 DP, zeroing out the Rockies’ chances.

-.391: Josh Willingham grounds into a double play, Aug. 13
The game in Miami went back and forth, with the Marlins jumping out in front 1-0 in the first, the Cardinals tying in the fourth, Marlins going up 2-1 in the fifth, Cards tying in the sixth. Jason LaRue gave the Cardinals their first lead with a two-run double in the seventh, and Skip Schumaker made it 5-2 Cardinals in the eighth. After Joe Mather scaled the leftfield wall to rob Luis Gonzalez of a hit, the Marlins roared back with two runs in their half of the eighth off Kyle McClellan, cutting the lead to one. With runners on second and third and one out, fellow rookie Chris Perez relieved and walked Dan Uggla to load the bases, putting the Marlins’ WP — even though they were losing — at 56%. Perez induced Willingham to ground to Troy Glaus, who stepped on third and threw to Pujols for an inning-ending double play and a loss of .392 to 16.9. The Cardinals tacked on another run in the ninth and Perez closed it out, 6-4.

This entry was posted by Pip on Monday, October 13th, 2008 at 10:48 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.