Biggest plays of 2008: Cardinals’ win probability lost (Part 2 of 4)
Continuing this week’s series on the biggest plays of the Cardinal season by win probability, today we’ll review the biggest losses of win probability in Cardinal plate appearances (we prefer to call them "disappointments" rather than "chokes").
-.265: Aaron Miles pops out with the bases loaded and one out, July 5
The Cardinals were in the middle of their second series with the Cubs, trying to pull within 2.5 games of the division leaders. The Cardinals never led in the game but, down 4-2 in the ninth inning, finally rallied with a double and three walks off Kerry Wood to close to 4-3 with none out. With the sacks jammed and a win probability suddenly at 74.2%, Skip Schumaker forced Yadier Molina at home to cut the WP to a still-favorable 53.8%. Aaron Miles proceeded to sink the hopes of the standing fans further, popping out to short, plunging the WP to 27.3% — a change of -.265. But happily, it wasn’t zero yet, and they had Rick Ankiel at the plate (more on that later in the week).
-.265: Nick Stavinoha strikes out with the bases loaded, Aug. 3
-.273: Joe Mather strikes out with the bases loaded, Aug. 3
-.299: Ryan Ludwick grounds into a double play with the bases loaded, Aug. 3
You know it’s a tough night at the office when you have a play in which you lose .265 win probability, and it isn’t even the second-worst play of the game. In the eighth inning at Busch Stadium, Russ Springer blew a 2-1 lead by surrendering scoring hits to Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino, but the Cardinals started to put a dent in the Phillies’ newfound 5-2 lead in the bottom half. They made it 5-3 on an error, then loaded the bases when wild Ryan Madsen hit Joe Mather and walked Albert Pujols on four pitches, increasing the home team’s WP to 37.4%. The team’s second-best hitter, Ryan Ludwick, jumped at the first pitch he saw, though, and hit into a rally-killing 5-4-3 DP — a loss of .299.
But the Cardinals weren’t finished with their comeback — or their heartbreak. As soon as Albert Pujols’s turn in the lineup had come and gone, the Phillies brought Brad Lidge in to protect the 5-3 lead in the ninth inning. He promptly yielded a home run to Troy Glaus to make it a 5-4 game, then after retiring Yadier Molina, gave up two singles and hit Cesar Izturis to give the Cardinals a better-than-even 53.8% chance of winning. But the Cardinals didn’t have any good cards left in their hand: righthanded rookies Nick Stavinoha (who had replaced Skip Schumaker) and Joe Mather due up, with only Jason LaRue on the bench. Stavinoha swung and missed on three of Lidge’s pitches and (-.265 WPA) and Mather likewise struck out on three, for a colossal -.273 WPA (and a whopping -.538 in the final two at-bats). Lidge technically got the save, but he was anything but perfect — no matter what Joe Buck says he’s been all year (not to mention the All-Star Game).
-0.334: Aaron Miles lines into a DP with the tying run on second, Sept. 22
With the Cardinals all but eliminated from the postseason (their e-number at two), the team needed every win it could get. They had a tall order, hosting the Diamondbacks and their ace-deuce Brandon Webb, vying for a playoff spot. Webb turned a 4-2 lead over to Brandon Lyon in the eighth. After Ryan Ludwick singled, Troy Glaus doubled to put the tying run in scoring position and up the Cardinals’ WP to 46.5 %. Aaron Miles then lined to former Cardinal David Eckstein at second base, who flipped to Stephen Drew to double Glaus off at second, bringing the WP to 13.1%. Of course, if the Cardinals hadn’t had two earlier baserunning gaffes — Felipe Lopez was picked off in the first, and Jose Oquendo stopped Cesar Izturis at third in the seventh — Glaus’s blunder wouldn’t have been so glaring.