Biggest plays of 2008: Opponents’ win probability added (Part 3 of 4)
This week we will finish our look at the biggest plays of the Cardinals’ season. Before we get to the Cardinals’ biggest positive win-probability plays, here are the biggest plays from their opponents.
.547: Chris Iannetta hits two-run triple, May 7
The Cardinals took a 3-0 lead into the bottom of the eighth at Coors Field, hoping to build on their three-game winning streak and 2.5-game lead over the Cubs. But while the bullpen kept the Rockies in the park, they couldn’t keep them off the bases. Matt Holliday tripled off Kyle McClellan, then Randy Flores (remember him?) retired Todd Helton but was inexplicably left in to face righty Garrett Atkins, who walked after Albert Pujols blew a foul popup chance along the wall. TLR summoned Jason Isringhausen for his first eighth-inning appearance of the year, and he surrendered a seeing-eye RBI single to Ryan Spilborghs and then the Rockies’ second triple of the inning, to Chris Iannetta, who ended the year as the NL’s third-best catcher by WSAB.
.647: Ryan Braun hits two-run homer, July 24
The Cardinals had already lost the first game of the biggest series of the season-to-date, a four-game set with the Brewers, whom the Cardinals led by one game coming in. It looked like the Cards would even the series, carrying a one-run lead into the ninth with Ryan Franklin on the hill. But with a 91% WE, the default closer gave up a JJ Hardy single and then a home run to Ryan Braun, a one-play swing of 64.7%. Salamon Torres struck out the side swinging in the bottom half, and the Brewers rode the victory all the way to a four-game sweep of the series and never looked back.
.662: Elijah Dukes hits two-run homer, June 5
Talk about a buzzkill. The Cardinals had come back from a 7-0 hole, including Mark Worrell’s three-run home run and capped by Skip Schumaker’s triple and Aaron Miles’s single with two outs in the ninth, down two runs. Franklin was again on the spot, this time in the 10th inning to protect the Cardinals’ first lead of the game, built on Joe Mather’s home run. The Cardinals had a 9-8 lead and a 79.7% WE. But Franklin let Cristian Guzman reach and then grooved a slider to Dukes, who walloped the game-winning home run.
.733: Rickie Weeks singles in two runs, May 9
The Cardinals came into Miller Park as the first-place team and the Brewers a distant five games out in fourth place. So the Cardinals quickly asserted their superiority in the opening game of the series on Albert Pujols’s first-inning home run. The Cardinals added two more and led 3-2 going into the ninth inning. Facing embattled closer Jason Isringhausen with two outs and a WE of a mere 4.5%, JJ Hardy and pinch-hitter Gabe Kapler each singled, ninth-place batter (back when Ned Yost still had the cojones to bat the pitcher eighth) Jason Kendall walked to load the bases. Yet with two outs, the Brewers still only had a 26.7% WE. It was plenty for Rickie Weeks, who stroked a game-winning "run-off" two-run single. Isringhausen manned up after the loss, saying "I’m pitching like a second-grader." Indeed, his lament that "it’s just time for Tony, ‘Dunc’ and ‘Mo’ to figure out what to do" was prescient: he lost his role as closer after the game and would pitch just three more games before heading to the DL for a month, partly due to punching a television.
.786: Jason Michaels homers in the 10th inning, July 12
With two games left before the All-Star break, the Cardinals were trying to win the second game of a three-game set in Pittsburgh. Leading 10-4 with two outs in the eighth, squeezing the Pirates to within 0.5% of their win expectancy, a Cards’ win looked imminent. But then Jason Bay hit a two-run homer to cut it to 10-6. Still, the Cardinals had a 98.1% chance of winning; how could they not win? The Pirates were down to their last two outs, staring at a 0.7 WE in the ninth, when Jason Isringhausen walked Jason Michaels. Jack Wilson dinked an infield hit, and the surprising Nate McLouth popped a three-run dinger to make it 10-9. Another pair of singles and a Bay fielder’s choice, and the Pirates had tied it to send the game to extras. But the Cardinals still had some fight left and went ahead 11-10 on Troy Glaus’s 14th home run of the season. Tony La Russa let Kyle McClellan hit for himself in the 10th then trotted the rookie out for a second inning of work in bottom half. He promptly yielded a leadoff single and was replaced by fellow rookie Chris Perez. Perez retired Jose Bautista to bring the Pirates’ WE to 21.4%. Then Michaels struck again: this time, with a two-run home run, zeroing out the Cardinals for a whopping .786 WPA. The six runs would stand as the Cardinals’ biggest blown lead of the season.