Though the Cardinals’ signing of free-agent Jason LaRue won’t drive many fans to order season tickets, for $950,000, if it’s “a popular move within the team’s holdover pitching staff,” according to Joe Strauss, it’s good enough for us. The other side of the coin is that catching prospect Bryan Anderson will likely start the 2009 with Memphis, which is a positive for the organization. Playing everyday in the minors will allow Anderson to improve on his .260 GPA that he had in 275 PAs in AAA last year — time better spent for both him and the big club than if he, and not LaRue, were backing up Yadier Molina. In the worst case, if Molina goes down, the Cardinals could call up Anderson and give him everyday reps at the major-league level. Either way, LaRue (whose pre-2008 projected MORP for 2009 was $775,000) won’t receive a majority of playing time.

The team’s other free agents are a bit trickier. Some thoughts on each:

• Shortstop Cesar Izturis: Apparently, the Cardinals are hoping to upgrade at shortstop. That’s theoretically possible, but not likely through free agency. Granted, Izturis carried a whiffleball bat in 2008, but, as we predicted at midseason, his batting average rebounded a bit because it was depressed by a below-average BABIP. And his defense — evidenced by his .869 RZR (second in baseball) — was no small factor in the team’s above-average DER of .697, which the pitching staff enjoyed. But if the team spurns Izturis, tThe leading free-agent candidate, Edgar Renteria, isn’t the answer. Not only has he lost a step in the field, his offensive production has fallen, too. His OBP last year? .317. Izturis’s? .319.
• Righthander Braden Looper: We’re not sure what Looper did to lose favor and find himself on the outside looking in. The workhorse was third on the team in Pitching Runs Created in 2008, and yet a guy like Joel Pineiro is under contract for $7.5 million. Looper is a Type-B free agent, and given the team’s need for a reliable starter (and please don’t anyone say that Chris Carpenter may return), offering Looper arbitration is a no-brainer.
• Infielder Felipe Lopez: It’s too bad that Lopez, who had a 4.8 RC/7 last year, didn’t earn at least a B rating from Elias, given that Juan Uribe — 3.7 — and Mark Loretta — 4.6 — both did. It’s somewhat academic, anyway, since Lopez seems likely to sign with the Cardinals. And that’s probably a good thing: Lopez ranked eighth among the league’s second basemen with at least 375 PAs in RC. Despite some memorable misplays, his defense wasn’t horrible, and he can spell Troy Glaus at third base. If for some reason things don’t work out with Lopez, the only free agent second baseman worth considering is Type-A Orlando Hudson. We’ve advocated for his signing in the past, and if the Cardinals do upgrade someone in the middle infield, our strong preference is for Hudson.
• Righthander Russ Springer: Springer is an A, so the team would gain a first-round pick if he spurned arbitration and signed somewhere else. But the likely scenario that he would like to return renders that strategy moot. His pre-2008 projected MORP for 2009 was $2,350,000, and, while he had a fine 2008 earning a 17.6 VORP, he doesn’t stand to warrant last year’s $3.5 million, becoming as he did the team’s ROOGy. Without solid relief in the system, the Cardinals should take a chance and offer Springer arbitration.
• Lefthander Ron Villone: The last three seasons, Villone has had an expected FIP higher than 5.00. And that’s facing a subset of batters against whom he has a platoon advantage. We rest our case. Certainly the Cardinals need to upgrade their LOOGy situation. But the name most-bandied about, Brian Fuentes (who, to be sure, is more than a LOOGy), is a Type-A free agent, so what was a longshot at a good value (overpaying relievers is a Moneyball no-no) should be prohibitively so, considering that the Cardinals would probably have to also surrender a first-rounder for him.
• Jason Isringhausen: Isringhausen’s B rating makes an arbitration offer a less-appealing plan. The risk — that the Cardinals would lose the arbitration and have to sign a possibly-feckless Isringhausen for a lot of money — outweighs the reward — receiving a supplemental pick.

This entry was posted by Pip on Monday, November 3rd, 2008 at 11:07 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.