Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Quotebook: NL MVP

I think the guys who voted, the baseball writers, know what they’re doing.

– Albert Pujols

Of course, it’s always nice to throw the electors a bone when you win. Which raises the inherent problem with the BBWAA, most of whom earn their living relying on access to players: Some voters are literally too close to the action in that their personal experience with players can color their vote. And it doesn’t always even matter whether or not someone is "a nice guy" or "a good interview." Sometimes it’s merely that the player draws the writer in on an emotional level that shapes the way the writer can carry out his professional duties (think Howard and his "story"). Furthermore, writers (bloggers included) feel a need to differentiate themselves in the marketplace, and with increasing competition from bloggers, many mainstream journalists are always looking for a way to provoke readership and earn names for themselves. Having both the right to vote and the right to write about it seems like a slight conflict of interest.

Another concern: A player’s financial gain is often tied to his MVP finish. Are clubhouse writers able to separate themselves from the reality that they have the power to help kick in a bonus that itself can dwarf their own salary? And that brings up another point: When something so important contractually — the vote was a $200,000 swing for Pujols — is left to the inconstant minds of the BBWAA, why would a player allow his agent to include such an incentive in his contract? By the same token, why would a ballclub consent to it? If Pujols had had the season that Howard had and had still won the award, the Cardinals would’ve been rightly upset that they had to shell out a couple hundred grand extra for someone who wasn’t even in the league’s top 10 players.

I see it this way: Someone who doesn’t take his team to the playoffs doesn’t deserve to win the MVP.

Pujols, 2006

Thanks for opening the door that was already shut. I said it in 2006. That guy misunderstood my words. And what I said is the players who take their teams to the playoffs should have some consideration to win the MVP.

– Pujols, 2008

Pujols’s comments from two years ago were silly at the time, inasmuch as he didn’t even need to make that argument then (he was better than Howard in most every way). But they’re even sillier now that he has defeated Howard, though we’re still not sure why Howard was the runner-up. Apparently, being on a playoff team — even if you play only 53 games for them — is important to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writers who voted. Rick Hummel had Manny Ramirez #2 on his ballot, which is only slightly less ridiculous than Joe Strauss putting Howard second (Hummel had Howard third; why is it that poor Rich Campbell of the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star has to apologize for leaving Howard off his ballot when far worse votes are being cast?)

The only serious metric we’ve found that Howard is best in is OBI% — Others Batted In rate — with 20.2%. That’s very good. But second was Bengie Molina with 19.3%; does anyone think that if Molina had knocked in four more runners that he would’ve been MVP-worthy? By the way, by comparison, Pujols was third in OBI% in 2006; Howard, who won the MVP that year, was 15th. After adjusting for intentional walks in 2008, Howard’s lone lead is even slimmer:

NAME TEAM PA ROB ROB OBI OBI% IBB OBI%+
Ryan Howard PHI 351 483 98 20.3% 17 29.3%
Albert Pujols SLN 322 436 79 18.1% 34 27.4%
Aramis Ramirez CHN 322 447 84 18.8% 7 26.7%
Nate McLouth PIT 267 358 68 19.0% 11 26.6%
Bengie Molina SFN 303 409 79 19.3% 5 26.5%
Ryan Ludwick SLN 303 426 76 17.8% 3 25.3%
Joey Votto CIN 248 342 60 17.5% 9 25.1%
Carlos Beltran NYN 356 498 85 17.1% 13 24.8%
Adrian Gonzalez SDN 354 478 83 17.4% 18 24.7%
David Wright NYN 375 508 91 17.9% 5 24.6%
Alfonso Soriano CHN 199 281 46 16.4% 11 24.5%
Lance Berkman HOU 334 429 77 17.9% 18 24.4%
Dan Uggla FLO 254 370 60 16.2% 6 24.2%
Cody Ross FLO 214 314 51 16.2% 2 24.1%
Mark Reynolds ARI 287 423 69 16.3% 0 24.0%

Seriously, can someone make or link to a strong case for Howard? (And please don’t bother citing raw RBIs or home runs in September.)

The most important statistic to me is batting average.

– Pujols

You’re killing us, Albert! As long as his batting average contributes to his On-Base Percentage, in which Pujols set a career-high in this season, it’s fine with us. Just don’t tell Albert that a big reason for his .357 BA was an uncanny — even for him — BABIP of .340. For his career:

Year BABIP BA OBP
2001 .336 .329 .403
2002 .308 .314 .394
2003 .346 .359 .439
2004 .298 .331 .415
2005 .316 .330 .430
2006 .292 .331 .431
2007 .317 .327 .429
2008 .340 .357 .462
Career .319 .334 .425

A player’s BABIP is usually between .290-.300, and Pujols’s career mark before 2008 was .316. It’s safe to say that, even though he hit a lot of line drives (22.4%), his 2008 BA was a bit inflated by "luck."

I’m proud of the fact I’ve hit over .300 every year in my career. It’s a hard thing to do over a full season, and it gets tougher every year because of all the good young pitchers coming into the league who all seem to throw 95 mph gas. When you look at what [Braves third baseman] Chipper Jones hit this year and what I hit, I really think it’s a great accomplishment. It’s something I really appreciate, and I think a lot of hitters appreciate.

Pujols

Taking pride in hitting .300 every year is akin to Gred Maddux taking pride in having a WHIP of 1.35 or less each of the last 20 years; It tells a little about what the player can do, but really misses the forest for the trees.

Every time you say that you run the risk of disrespecting guys. When you have really solid seasons from guys like Troy (Glaus), Ryan and Rick (Ankiel), you can’t overlook it. But this guy is so respected. It may appear disrespectful for other guys, but it’s the ultimate respect for Albert.

– Tony La Russa

When Pujols earns a career-high 34 intentional walks, and the Cardinals are second in the league in runs created, it’s hard to make the argument that a team priority should be another big hitter to protect Pujols. It’s not as much fun to watch Albert walk, but if the IBBs helped yield Pujols’s highest OBP season and in turn allowed others to generate runs, that’s a good situation.

You’ve got to take your walks, but it’s hard because you want to swing the bat when you’re up at the plate. I think I’ve gotten better every year when it comes to strike-zone judgment. I’m trusting my hands more to wait that extra little bit before committing to swing.

– Pujols

Pujols set a career high in walk rate (16.6 %), easily eclipsing his previous high of 14.9% set in 2007. That’s understandable, given that Pujols saw a four-year low (the timeframe for which Fangraphs publishes these things) in the percentage of pitches he sees inside the strike zone. That didn’t stop him from going outside the zone, though: He also had a four-year high in percentage of pitches outside the strike zone that he swung at. But he also had a high in contact rate for those pitches. These numbers problably confirm something we already suspected: With a four-year high in overall contact rate (90.1%), Pujols is simply becoming a better hitter.

I think I’ve made a lot of mistakes in my career. The biggest I made was that night in Washington. We were so close to first place. I didn’t want to come out of the lineup. … The swing in Cincinnati pulled on me. I’m glad it was only 10 or 15 days.

– Pujols

If Pujols were ever to apply for a job in the real world, he certainly will know how to turn that "What’s your biggest weakness?" question into a positive.

2 Responses to “Quotebook: NL MVP”

  1. kotheb Says:

    My first comment but I’ve read for a while. Great site you’ve got here.

    One question. You say Pujols’ career mark for BABIP is .316. Do you mean .319? I’m assuming you mean career average and not year by year, since he’s had 4 years at .316 or higher before this year.

    And while I agree that a .340 BABIP may seem inflated, he’s been at .346 and .336 in the past, so at what point does he do it enough times that you finally just say that sometimes he’s just capable of what others aren’t? He seems to have an uncanny ability to place the ball.

    And just for the record, I’m just now getting into sabermetrics so I’m sure you know a lot more about this than I do. I’m just making an observation.

    Keep up the good work!

    -kotheb

    http://www.buschbirds.com

  2. Pip Says:

    Thanks a lot for the kind words. Here are BABIP numbers again for Albert:

    AB H HR K SF BABIP
    2008 524 187 37 54 8 .340
    Career 4578 1531 319 506 47 .319
    Career Pre-2008 4054 1344 282 452 39 .316

    So, yes, to clarify and underscore your point, .316 was his career mark before 2008.

    You make a good point about the possibility that Albert could simply have an abnormally high BABIP but sustain it. The traditional understanding of BABIP is that it’s largely a function of defense and luck, and that it’s harder for pitchers to “control” than for batters. Batters, like Pujols, who anecdotally seem to hit the ball harder than others, are probably going to “make their own luck” a little more. How much more? Well, it would be interesting to see which hitters historically have the highest career BABIP. Perhaps one of us can post on it sometime!

    Glad to hear about your interest in sabermetrics. I’m no expert myself — merely a fan. :)

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