Comments on: Khalil Greene is no Ozzie http://www.fungoes.net/2008/12/04/khalil-greene-is-no-ozzie/ Official blog of the St. Louis chapter of SABR Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:03:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: ViperLjs http://www.fungoes.net/2008/12/04/khalil-greene-is-no-ozzie/comment-page-1/#comment-5214 ViperLjs Fri, 05 Dec 2008 06:40:06 +0000 http://fungoes.net/?p=1440#comment-5214 I think you are shortchanging Greene. While he does indeed benefit from hitting in Coors for his road splits, this is somewhat balanced by also having to hit often in Dodger Stadium, which is 29th in MLB park factor, losing only to Petco. Petco is the worst hitter's park in baseball; it has been dead last in park factor since 2005: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2008. His career line of .228 /.292 /.374 at home is clearly hurt by Petco's run supressing nature. His road line of .270 /.318 /.484 is much closer to what he put up in the minors, with a line of .294 /.341 /.446. To say that he will not benefit greatly from leaving Petco is not accurate. His road splits for the other ballparks he plays often in tell a different story: .287 /.336 /.566 .902 OPS - San Fransisco .289 /.357 /.526 .883 OPS - Arizona .331 /.392 /.656 1.048 OPS - Colorado .217 /.267 /.358 .626 OPS - LA Of the parks he's had more than 100 PA in, he has an OPS of less than .800 in two: Petco and Dodger Stadium, the two most run suppressing parks in the majors in 2008. EqA is a better statistic to use in this case because it is adjusted for park factors, while wOBA is not. Any hitter in Petco deserves park-adjustment for a true look at their talent level. Greene has a career EqA of .261, right at league average, and that includes his fluky, horrid 2008 campaign. For a shortstop considered widely to be a plus defender (minus last year, in which he is probably too young to have his true talent drop precipitously, and even then he was middle of the pack amongst qualified MLB SS according to RZR) league average offense is quite good. Given the relatively low price to acquire Greene and his relatively low salary, I like this as a low-risk, high-upside pickup. I think you are shortchanging Greene. While he does indeed benefit from hitting in Coors for his road splits, this is somewhat balanced by also having to hit often in Dodger Stadium, which is 29th in MLB park factor, losing only to Petco.

Petco is the worst hitter’s park in baseball; it has been dead last in park factor since 2005: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2008.
His career line of .228 /.292 /.374 at home is clearly hurt by Petco’s run supressing nature. His road line of .270 /.318 /.484 is much closer to what he put up in the minors, with a line of
.294 /.341 /.446.

To say that he will not benefit greatly from leaving
Petco is not accurate. His road splits for the other ballparks he plays often in tell a different story:

.287 /.336 /.566 .902 OPS – San Fransisco

.289 /.357 /.526 .883 OPS – Arizona

.331 /.392 /.656 1.048 OPS – Colorado

.217 /.267 /.358 .626 OPS – LA

Of the parks he’s had more than 100 PA in, he has an OPS of less than .800 in two: Petco and Dodger Stadium, the two most run suppressing parks in the majors in 2008.

EqA is a better statistic to use in this case because it is adjusted for park factors, while wOBA is not. Any hitter in Petco deserves park-adjustment for a true look at their talent level.

Greene has a career EqA of .261, right at league average, and that includes his fluky, horrid 2008 campaign. For a shortstop considered widely to be a plus defender (minus last year, in which he is probably too young to have his true talent drop precipitously, and even then he was middle of the pack amongst qualified MLB SS according to RZR) league average offense is quite good.

Given the relatively low price to acquire Greene and his relatively low salary, I like this as a low-risk, high-upside pickup.

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