A smart move became even smarter when Derrick Goold revealed the details of Trever Miller’s contract with the Cardinals. According to Goold, the incentives that would make the contract worth up to $2 million include pitching in 70 games and winning the Rolaids Relief Man award, which is to say that the contract is going to be worth around $1.75 million. Which is to say a pretty good deal. Here’s an unserious guess at the likelihood of Miller attaining each milestone:

Bill James projects Miller to pitch in 66 games, and with the dubious health, we’re guessing that will be Miller’s max. The Rolaids Relief Man finish is a curious stipulation. We suppose that Miller technically will be eligible, since he’s a reliever. But, given that the RRM (which should’ve been retired with Bruce Sutter) generally, well, picks up a lot of saves (No one has won it in the last 10 years with fewer than 39 saves, and no LOOGy has ever won) and is generally given to, you know, closers, the improbable incentive reminds us of a Seinfeld episode. George and Jerry are brainstorming about possible career options for George. George backs off his original idea to be a general manager and suggests that he could be "an announcer … like a caller man." Jerry replies, "Well, they tend to give those jobs to ex-ballplayers and people that are, you know, in broadcasting." Whether it was John Mozeliak or Miller’s agent who came up with the Rolaids gimmick, we bet he’s a Seinfeld fan. He at least has a sense of humor.

As we’ve noted, the deal makes sense (and now seems rather shrewd), if — and only if — the Cardinals plan to use Miller as a LOOGy. Were the Cardinals seeking a true lefthanded one-out guy (emphasis on one out), or a southpaw reliever who could pitch to righties, too? It’s an important distinction, if LaRuncan plans to use lefty relievers in 2009 like they used Ron Villone in 2008. Villone was very good versus lefties (.219 GPA against). But he faced a majority of righthanders, who tanked his overall numbers (.299 GPA). Dave Duncan’s comment in the wake of the Miller news — That is when he’s been used most effectively — as a specialist. He gives us a weapon that we didn’t really have last year" — doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, inasmuch as it is either a willful ignorance of the facts (Villone was a capable LOOGy weapon) or a misjudgment of personnel.

One more word on Miller, then hopefully we’ll be able to turn our attention to more influential acquisitions (with all due respect to Miller, he has fewer Win Shares in his 10-year career than Albert Pujols had his rookie season). Bernie Miklasz is on record as liking the signing, too, and cites Miller’s low inherited runners scored (IRS) rate as evidence. A low IRS certainly can’t hurt. But it seems like it is based on too small a sample size to be too useful. After all, Miller’s IRS has fluctuated widely over the years:

Given that Miller has gone from 23% to 40% and from 41% to 17%, we’re not convinced that it’s a skill so much as it is a somewhat flukish byproduct of truer skills like striking batters out, not walking batters and preventing home runs (not to mention situation). Moreover, it gets less reliable when describing LOOGys, who, by their nature, are pitching to fewer batters at a time. It’s too blunt an object, since it can’t distinguish between a bases-loaded flare single and a leadoff home run. At any rate, we used performance in high-leverage situations as another indicator of a LOOGy’s ability to perform in tight spots. Here’s a sampling:

By this, Miller still holds up as a good buy. As long as his arm holds up, too.

This entry was posted by Pip on Monday, December 8th, 2008 at 11:01 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.