Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Around the horn: Winter Meetings wrapup

Without a splashy signing or trade this week at the Winter Meetings, the Cardinals have generated headlines by pursuing erstwhile Rockies’ reliever Brian Fuentes. Derrick Goold quotes manager Tony La Russa as saying that getting a closer is "the No. 1 priority." We know that a lot has happened this week, but we must have missed the announcements that the Cardinals had signed a starting pitcher and acquired a new second baseman.

With the team having other more pressing needs, we’re not sure that just because the Cardinals can sign Fuentes that they should. After all, Jeff Gordon suspects that the asking price could be high:

If the Anaheim Angels get really interested in having him replace K-Rod, the bidding could go high -– three years, $33 million or more — but this is the guy the Cards have to sign.

If that’s the case, then the answer is simple: no. Given that Fuentes is probably not worth much more than $3.75 million (according to JC Bradbury), that the Cardinals currently have one to two spots in their rotation that need to be filled (Marcel projects Pineiro to pitch 130 innings, and not particularly well) and are planning (publicly, anyway) to go with a second baseman projected to have a .231 GPA, the Cardinals shouldn’t be wasting their money on that mysterious thing known as a "closer." Oh, and did we mention that the Cardinals would have to surrender draft picks for the privilege?

It’s not that Fuentes isn’t a capable reliever. His 3.25 xFIP in 2008 was one of the best in the league. But, after Gordon claims that "this is the guy the Cards have to sign," in the next sentence admits he’s no "lockdown closer." Indeed, his projected 3.69 FIP is helpful, but not $10+ million helpful. Not when the Cardinals have more innings to be pitched.

Clearing the record
You’ve gotta love how, less than a year and a half after being discovered as a cheat, Rick Ankiel’s standard bio ‘graf has been whitewashed of his misdeed, as MLB.com’s Bill Chastain demonstrates at the end of his short article on the Rays’ interest in the Cardinal center fielder:

Ankiel, 29, bats and throws left-handed. He hit.264 with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs for the Cardinals in 2008. Once a promising pitcher — he experienced a highly publicized control ordeal before returning to the Minor Leagues and changing positions. Ankiel has one of the best arms in baseball and can play right or center field.

It’s as if Ankiel’s secretly taking HGH, lying about never receiving it from Signature pharmacy, and subsequently pretending it was for an injury — arguably an important tidbit in his career — never happened. Aren’t baseball fans supposed to have long memories? At any rate, if Ankiel is indeed being shopped, we at least appreciate the media’s repetition of that specious claim of his having "one of best arms in baseball." Ankiel may have a strong arm, but as we’ve noted, it doesn’t translate into especially good overall defense. But the Cardinals are grateful for the free advertising. On second thought, perhaps Chastain is a Redbird fan.

McGwire’s "integrity"
Speaking of MLB writers who may not report the more indecorous facts, beat reporter Matthew Leach starts to tell the story about Mark McGwire in his article on the former Cardinal slugger’s Hall of Fame merits, but scratches only the surface:

McGwire has admitted taking androstenedione, a steroid precursor, but nothing stiffer than that. He retired before steroid testing came to baseball. He was accused of steroid use in Jose Canseco’s tell-all book, "Juiced," however. And when he testified before Congress in the spring of 2006, McGwire delivered a performance that disappointed even his staunchest defenders.

Uh, to say that McGwire was merely accused of use is akin to saying Rod Blagojevich is only suspected of impropriety. Back in 2005, the New York Daily News reported that McGwire was using "the cocktail of a hardcore steroids user." But writers aren’t the only ones overlooking the obvious, as Tony La Russa shows, according to Derrick Goold:

“This steroid issue, that’s a matter of integrity, right?” La Russa said. “That’s one way to describe it, right? Well, it occurred to me, I know that I’ve never spoken much about it at all, but this guy did something that screams integrity. … How many guys do we know that had a contract like he had? He had a contract in his hand for $15 million over two years, and he walked away from it because he didn’t feel like he could play to that level. That, to me, there’s a certain integrity for the sport, for self-respect and everything.”

Unfortunately, McGwire also did something that screams an utter lack of integrity. This kind of dissembling is disrespectful to fans and La Russa should be ashamed of himself for it. La Russa may make some money lawyering after he retires from baseball, but for now, he’s getting paid to manage and not represent disgraced heroes.

Out of the park
SABR’s Baseball Biography Project has recently posted four new articles on old ballparks in St. Louis, all by the Bob Broeg Chapter’s own Joan Thomas:

  • Red Stockings Park
  • Union Base Ball Park
  • Federal League Park
  • Robison Field

Speaking of the Bob Broeg Chapter, in case you can’t get enough baseball discussion (perhaps you missed the UCB’s radio show this past Wednesday!), you’re welcome to attend the chapter’s December roundtable meeting this coming Monday, Dec. 15, at Crusoe’s, Osceola and Compton, in beautiful South St. Louis. As always, dinner is from roughly 5:30 on, with the meeting formally starting at 6:45. Join us; you may even get to chat with Joan.

Missed draft picks
For those scoring at home, it turns out that the Tigers made the wrong call in not offering arbitration to Edgar Renteria, who signed a two-year deal with the Giants. And with Kerry Wood signing an incredible two-year deal with Cleveland, proving that concerns over belt-tightening were precipitous, the Cubs lost out on a pick, as well. The Angels, on the other end of the spectrum, took a slight chance in offering Francisco Rodriguez arbitration, inasmuch as he’s only worth about $5 million (according to JC Bradbury), and will have some Met draft picks in 2009.

News of the tautological
Executives at winter meetings expect economy to affect game — Post-Dispatch headline

"It’s gonna be just like the ‘76 tour with the Dead, man!"

Red Sox unveil ‘retro roadies’ — MLB.com headline

Could you be more specific?
Izturis looks like the guy — Baltimore Sun headline

Easy for you to say
Three-team blockbuster nets Mets Putz — MLB.com headline

Breaking news from 1960
Cardinals committed to Kennedy — MLB.com headline

Creative negotiations: It beats turkey when it comes to closing the sale
Brewers finalize deal with Lamb — MLB.com headline

Bottom stories of the week

Law on the Cardinals
The newly associated (as in Baseball Writers Association of America) Keith Law held forth on the Winter Meetings in his online chat Thursday and responded to a couple of inquiries about the Cardinals’ centerfield situation:

Kevin (STL): Should Ankiel be dealt?

Keith Law: (2:04 PM ET ) I’m not sure what the urgency is, but if it’s just about clearing a spot for Rasmus, I hope they get full value for him. You could always slide Ankiel to a corner and trade Ludwick, who is all downside after the huge year.

And later:

Grant (The Lou): You mention Colby Rasmus earlier. What is his upper potential? Grady Sizemore w a bit less pop?

Keith Law: (2:24 PM ET ) More pop, less defense. Perfect world projection, to borrow a phrase from Kevin Goldstein.

Later in the chat, Law provided his view of the team’s top priority:

Pip (St. Louis): Tony La Russa says the Cardinals’ #1 priority is a closer (read: Fuentes). What do *you* think their #1 should be?

Keith Law: (2:14 PM ET ) A second baseman with some pop. But I don’t think signing a closer/good reliever is a bad idea. They’re sneaky-good for ‘09, especially if Carpenter can add 20-25 starts.

We’ll take "sneaky-good." By the way, who does this wiseguy "Pip" think he is questioning the value of free-agent closers?

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