[Ed. note: The following post is part of today's Blog Swap, brought to you by the United Cardinal Bloggers. Participating blogs are:
The blogs participating are:

We'll keep the author anonymous today and let you, gentle reader, try to guess who penned typed it. Feel free to post your guess in the comments. Special thanks to, well, the blogger who wrote it.]

Revisiting the 2008 bullpen might be a topic that is more appropriate for the end of October than the end of January, what with the horror of watching it implode time after time. We all know about the talking points of 30 blown saves and ranking at the bottom of the league. Even after the signings of Trevor Miller and Royce Ring and the dismissals of Randy Flores, Ron Villone, and Jason Isringhausen, the grumblers continue to ask, how good is this pen, really?

That’s not the question I’m going to answer today, however, at least not directly. What this discussion led me to was the thought that, even with all of those flammable parts last year, it seemed to me that the bullpen got better down the stretch, especially with the additions of Chris Perez and Jason Motte. Not that it was perfect by any means, but better. You didn’t automatically hide your face when Tony LaRussa headed to the bullpen, though you may have by the end of the game.

On the gut side, this makes sense. Isringhausen was removed from his closer role and eventually went on the DL. Motte and Perez made their debuts and had success, at least the first time through. Flores was used less. Save for Kyle McClellan, it’s seems that most everyone had a better second half. Does that hold up quantitatively?

Let me make it abundantly clear, I’m not even close to the class of sabermetrician that Pip is. He will probably shake his head in despair and wish he’d never agreed to this crazy blog-swap idea, but I did some rough calculations to see how the bullpen performed, by month, during the 2008 season. (Fair warning, I compiled the numbers by going through the box scores at Baseball-Reference.com. Any errors are mine and I’d be shocked if there aren’t some.)

Let’s start with the basics. Saves, blown saves, and save percentage via month:

Ah, those heady days of April, when the Cards were in first, the bullpen did its job, and all was right with the world. Things fell off sharply after that before rebounding some in the last two months of the year. September’s save percentage isn’t great, but it did finish in the top half of the year. So, from this rough measure, there’s some basis to the improving-late bullpen.

I did add up the holds as well per month, but I’m not sure how relevant they were to the discussion. The bullpen “held” the game between 25 times (in April ) and 15 times (three different months) but there didn’t seem to be much correlation between those numbers and anything else.

Next, bullpen ERA. I know that bullpen ERA is fairly deceiving, because allowing inherited runners to score doesn’t show up in the stat. However, for a back-of-the-envelope stat, especially when you encompass the whole bullpen, it’s good enough for a discussion point.

Well, at least September looked good. The bullpen tended to fluctuate in 2008 in the ERA department, as you call tell. Without a seven runs in three innings outing on 8/26, August would have been 4.05, which would have fit in with my theory nicely. But, since about every month had a terrible outing or two, it’s not exactly fair to remove that one.

Now, of course, not all bullpen outings are created equally. Giving up seven in three is just icing when the score is already 6-1, but terrible if the Cards are up 4-1. So, let’s look at the bottom line. How often was the win awarded to a reliever, and how often did the loss get assigned to the bullpen?

How in the world did we live through June as Cardinal fans? When over half of your losses are coming from the bullpen, you are either playing a lot of close games or you are making a lot of games close. In theory, I’d think you’d want your bullpen to be low in both of these categories, getting good innings out of your starters. In that regard, August and September were on the positive side.

Finally (and I hear your sigh of relief right now), I came up with a rough stat called “heartbreak points.” It’s something I hope to tinker with and keep track of on my blog in the coming year. It’s pretty basic: if the save is blown in the sixth inning or earlier, 0 points, figuring that there is still time for the offense to take the lead back. Those games don’t hurt quite as much. If it’s blown in the seventh, one point is assigned. Two if it’s blown in the eighth and three if it’s blown in the ninth or later. Like I said, it’s not anywhere close to perfect, since it doesn’t take into account home/away or the size of the lead, for starters, but it’s something.

Again, the stat is a little skewed, since due to that large losing streak that kick off September, there weren’t too many chances to blow a save (only 9 opportunities). Most of the time the game was already lost before the pen got to it. But, at least from the stress point of view, August and September were a lot easier to watch. May not have been pleasant, but it wasn’t quite as ulcer-inducing as May and June were.

So, to wrap this up, let’s take a look at all these stats as broken up, not by month, but first “half” (pre-All Star Game) and second half. Does that indicate that things were better as time went by?

By almost any measure, the second half of the season was much stronger for the bullpen. Granted, they threw 94 fewer innings in the second half, so that probably led to some of the improvement, but when you couple this with the departures and additions, you have to feel at least somewhat better about the later innings in 2009.

Derrick Goold wrote another fascinating blog post this week, this time on the idea of a decade Triple Crown. That is, players who lead in the traditional Triple Crown categories — batting average, home runs, runs batted in — over the period of any particular decade. Specifically, he looks at Rogers Hornsby, who in the 1920s was superlative in BA, HR and RBI in the National League in the 1920s. He then shows how another Cardinal great — Albert Pujols — is leading all competition in the 2000s.

Like Derrick, we are captivated by the concept of the Triple Crown. A few years ago, we coined what we called the Sabermetric Triple Crown: On-base percentage, total bases and runs created. We thought we’d apply those criteria to Hornsby and Pujols — and others — and see if the crown still fits. And for good measure, we’ll look at any 10-year period, not merely the years of a formal decade.

First, let’s consider The Rajah, whose career spanned 1915 through 1937:

Hornsby then won the decade Sabermetric Triple Crown in nine 10-year periods, including one in which he only played nine years. Pretty amazing, even for one of the greats of the game, since it wasn’t like he was playing in an era with a bunch of patsies (see Frankie Frisch, Zack Wheat, Ross Youngs, Highpockets Kelly, Kiki Cuyler and Edd Roush, Hall of Famers all).

Before we move to Pujols, let’s look at other Cardinals who might’ve won a decade Triple Crown.The last player to win a traditional Triple Crown in a season in the NL, Ducky Joe Medwick, might’ve won a decade Triple Crown (or two) if not for the habitually on-base Mel Ott, who locked up the OBP title for four of Medwick’s best 10-year runs:

And before El Hombre, there was The Man. As impressive as Hornsby’s nine decade Triple Crowns is, Stan Musial racked up 12 of them:

Again, Musial had no shortage of competition, playing against the likes of Willie Mays, Jackie Robinson, Ralph Kiner, Duke Snider and Eddie Mathews. Winning those 12 Triple Crown Decades is a truly amazing feat.

That brings us to Pujols and the current era. Like Medwick, Pujols has had stiff competition in the on-base category. So despite winning runs created and total bases, Pujols has yet to master a 10-year period or even a subset of a 10-year period, what with Todd Helton and Barry Bonds reaching base by natural and other means:

But Bonds is out of the game, and Helton isn’t far behind, so Pujols stands to inherit the OBP title for himself. The only rub is that, unless Helton keeps playing and suddenly loses the ability to get on base, Pujols won’t be able to overtake him for at least a couple of years. Actually, ceteris parabus, Pujols will have to wait until the 10-year period starting in 2004 to be able to garner all three Sabermetric Triple Crown titles:

So while it’s safe to say that Albert has been a dominant player in his era, if not the most dominant player, he hasn’t been as singularly great as Hornsby and Musial were. Of course, that’s no slight against Pujols. After all, The Rajah and The Man were two of the best players the game has ever known. Pujols may yet qualify.

[Ed. note: Many baseball biographers and historians have documented the tragedy of the 1919 Chicago "Black Sox." Less well-known is the story of their opponent, the Cincinnati Reds. Longtime SABR member Steve Gietschier talked about some of the details of that team in "They Beat the Black Sox: The 1919 Cincinnati Reds," presented at last Saturday's Hot Stove Luncheon.]

Edd Roush loathed spring training until long after he retired from the diamond. “Why should I go down there and fuss around,” he used to grumble. “Twist an ankle, or break a leg. I did my own spring training, hunting quail and rabbits . . . .” Roush didn’t catch all of spring training until long after 1931, his last year as a player. In his sixties, he and his wife would leave the Indiana cold for Bradenton, then the Florida home of the Milwaukee Braves. Each morning Roush would don a uniform, work out a bit, and prepare for the annual old-timers’ game. But in the afternoons, he would escape to the press box, purposely sitting with his back to the field to show his disdain for modern baseball. And occasionally, when asked, he would talk about the 1919 World Series.

In the summer of 1912, Roush, then 19, signed a professional contract with Evansville of the Kitty League. The following year he hit .317 in 89 games and gained the attention of Charles Comiskey, who purchased his contract for $3,000. Comiskey kept Roush in Chicago awhile before sending him to Lincoln in the Western League. Over the following winter, Roush signed with the Indianapolis Hoosiers of the upstart Federal League and helped them win the pennant. In 1915, the Federal League’s final season, the Hoosiers became the Newark Peppers and finished fifth. Players from the disbanded league were put on the market, and the Giants purchased three Peppers: Benny Kauff, Bill McKechnie, and Roush, and in July 1916, John McGraw traded McKechnie, Roush, and Christy Mathewson to the Reds. Roush would play eleven seasons in Cincinnati but win the pennant only once, in 1919. (continue reading)

[Ed. Note: The Bob Broeg SABR Chapter hosted its annual Hot Stove Luncheon Saturday at Mike Shannon's, which featured a panel of speakers along with five research presentations from SABR members. Following is the little presentation we made.]

Most Cardinal fans know that Mark Whiten holds the team record for most home runs and most RBIs in a single game. But who has created the most runs in a single game? Surely it was Whiten, right? We decided to look into the matter. With indispensable help from Baseball-Reference.com, following are the ten (eleven, actually) best single-game performances by Cardinal batters, 1956-2008, based on runs created*. At least one of the answers may surprise you.

10. (tied) Ray Lankford, 09/15/91, NYM

Proving that players don’t have to bat cleanup to create runs, leadoff man Ray Lankford created 10.52 runs on 11 total bases, hitting for the cycle in the process. For good measure, he also stole a base off the Mets in the Cardinals’ 7-2 triumph.

10. (tied) Cesar Cedeno, 09/15/85, @CHC

Unlikely cleanup man and first baseman Cesar Cedeno propelled the Cardinals to a 5-1 win over the Cubs in one of Cedeno’s only 28 games with the club. He went a perfect 5-for-5 with a home run, two doubles and a stolen base before Whitey Herzog double-switched for him with Todd Worrell.

9. George Hendrick, 04/13/83, @PIT

Silent George Hendrick tallied 11 total bases on the strength of two home runs and three singles, finishing 5-for-5 against the Pirates at Three Rivers Stadium in the club’s fourth game of the season. Hendrick would go on to create 96 runs that year, the second-highest total of his career.

8. Vince Coleman, 07/24/90, CHC

Stolen bases are secondary to total bases when creating runs. But if you’re always successful, as Vince Coleman was back in 1990 against the Cubs, you can create runs like the sluggers. Vincent Van Go stole four bases without being caught by Cub pitchers and catcher Joe Girardi, including home, and was perfect at the plate, going 4-for-4 with a walk. He created 11.34 runs in the Cardinals’ 9-4 win. Coleman set a career-high with 96 runs created in 1987, when he stole 109 bases, was thrown out only 22 times and had career-high OBP of .363.

7. Bill White, 07/05/61, @LAD

The second-finest fielding first baseman in club history (next to Keith Hernandez), Bill White also won games with his bat, as he did in LA back in 1961. White blasted three home runs and aded a single and a walk, racking up 14 total bases and 11.67 runs created. The only mar on his box score that day was a first-inning groundout. The Cardinals’ starting pitcher, Bob Gibson, created 2.40 runs with a home run and a double.

5. (tied) Jim Edmonds, 04/04/03, HOU

Edmonds only had four plate appearances, but he made the most of them, hitting two home runs and two doubles. He might’ve created more than 12.52 had Orlando Palmeiro not had to pinch run for him in the bottom of the seventh after Edmonds doubled with the game tied. For his part, Palmeiro went on to single and walk in a game that the Astros eventually won 6-5 in the 12th inning.

5. (tied) Reggie Smith, 05/04/75, CHC

After creating 105 runs in his first season with the Cardinals in 1974, switch-hitting Reggie Smith lumped together 12 in a single game in 1975 against the Cubs. He knocked a pair of home runs, a double and two singles en route to 12 total bases.

4. Mark McGwire, 04/14/98, ARI

At Busch Stadium II, Mark McGwire hit three home runs and walked twice to lead the Cardinals to a 15-5 win over the Diamondbacks. Batting third, McGwire hit two of his home runs off Jeff Suppan and had 12 total bases on the day.

3 Jim Edmonds, 06/28/03, @KCR

Jim Edmonds reached base six times in six plate appearances in Kansas City, with two home runs, two doubles and two walks. Batting behind Bo Hart and ahead of Pujols (who went 0-for-5), Edmonds had 12 total bases, half off lefthanders (Jeremy Affeldt and Les Walrond).

2. Mark Whiten, 09/07/93 (2), @CIN

In the second game of the Cardinals’ double header in Cincinnati’s Riverfront Stadium, "Hard-Hittin’" Mark Whiten hit four home runs (including a grand slam) and drove in 12 runs, tying the all-time single-game records in both categories. Batting seventh, Whiten cleaned up the bases, plating Todd Zeile three times and Gerald Perry four times in creating 12.80 runs on 16 total bases. If not for his foulout to third in the fourth inning, Whiten would have the most RC. Whiten hit the first of his homers off Larry Luebbers, who would pitch for the Cardinals six years later. As for Sunny Jim Bottomley, the man whose major-league RBI record Whiten equaled, he created 13.00 runs with his 6-for-6 performance back on Sept. 16, 1924 at Ebbets Field, which included two home runs and a double.

1. Albert Pujols, 07/20/04, @CHC

Sure, Albert Pujols has done just about everything. But to have the team’s best single offensive game since 1956, in light of Whiten’s performance? The Cubs couldn’t get Pujols out, as he went 5-for-5 with three home runs, a double and a single — 15 total bases — for a total of 15.00 runs created. Pujols’s third home run of the game lifted the Cardinals past the Cubs in the ninth inning to complete a two-game sweep at Wrigley Field. The game also featured two home runs from So Taguchi. Pujols hit his dingers off starter Glendon Rusch, Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins.

*The simple formula for runs created is RC= ((H+BB) * TB)/(AB+BB). The technical version, which we use, includes CS, HBP, GIDP, SB, IBB, SH, SF.

Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum* almost never work.

– Bill James

Just when we thought that it was safe to stop talking about Skip Schumaker converting to second base, the heretofore crazy idea has resurfaced, this time in no stranger a place than an online chat with the Cardinals’ General Manager, John Mozeliak, who responded Wednesday:

Schumaker was drafted as an infielder but has not played there since making the move to the OF. I have spoken with Tony on this and we have included Oquendo in these talks as well. Skip may get a look there this spring to gauge how comfortable he would be with trying to move back to the infield. He had a good offensively and we always look for creative ways to get players more playing time.

Despite Schumaker’s own denials earlier in the week, if the famously close-to-the-vest Mozeliak is asserting publicly that Schumaker trying out at second base is a possibility — so legitimate, in fact, that La Russa and Oquendo are involved in it — it has to be taken seriously, doesn’t it?

To be sure, Schumaker moving into the infield would solve many roster botherations, mainly like what to do with the glut of outfielders and how to get offensive production from second base, where the putative starter, Adam Kennedy, figures to provide only five weighted batting runs over replacement. And now, with the news of Troy Glaus’s ill-timed shoulder surgery, the team now suddenly needs players to play innings at third base, a possibility for Kennedy and others.

But it’s one thing for Carlos Guillén to play shortstop on your fantasy baseball team (he played zero games there in 2008 but qualified in many leagues); it’s another for a major-league player to move to a more difficult defensive position in reality baseball. Just how realistic is it to expect that Schumaker could pull it off?

In short, not at all. Schumaker, who was drafted as a second baseman, hasn’t, according to him, "taken ground balls in six, seven years." He has played 296 major-league games, all as an outfielder (or pinch-hitter). Only a handful of players in major-league history have played at least 100 games in the outfield before playing more than one game at second base and finished with 100 games at second, most notably Cardinal Hall of Famer Red Schoendienst:

• Howie Shanks: Played 362 games in the outfield in his first three seasons, then played 10 games at second and then became a shortstop/third baseman.
• Schoendienst: Played 118 games in LF in 1945, played 128 games at 2B in 1946 and played outfield only three more times in 19-year career in which he totaled 1834 games at second base.
• Vic Power: Played OF first two seasons, then played 47 games at 2B; eventually settled at 1B, playing 1304 games there.
• Steve Lyons: Broke in as outfielder, where he played two seasons before becoming part-time utility man, playing mostly at 3B before playing 70 games at 2B in his age-29 season.
• Harry Niles: Played 108 games in OF and 34 at 3B rookie year; played 116 games at 2B his sophomore season.
• Alan Wiggins: Played 177 games in the outfield in his first three seasons before playing 157 games at 2B in 1984. Finished his career with 342 games at 2B, his most common position.

And only one player in history has played as many games as Schumaker in the outfield and then played as many as 100 games at second base: Shanks. Shanks is probably Shumaker’s best analog, having exclusively played outfield the first three years of his major-league career (114, 109 and 139 games, respectively), then mixing in 10 games at second in addition to 80 game in the outfield in his fourth season. Within two years after breaking into the infield, he played 94 games at shortstop. But two big differences remain: Shanks was only 24 when he moved to the infield. And it was 1915.

So it’s technically possible, at least from a broad historical perspective. But is it even advisable? People may not appreciate just how hard it is to move rightward on the spectrum, and one of the reasons is that playing defense can be mentally tough, something Schumaker knows from experience. In an April 2001 article in the LA Times, Schumaker commented on his move to the outfield when he transferred from Loyola to UC-Santa Barbara:

"There’s a lot of pressure at shortstop," Schumaker said. "In the outfield I’m able to think about my hitting more. It’s been an easy adjustment."

In light of that, then, a full-time position switch to the infield might just counteract any gains the teams expects to get from an offensive upgrade. If Schumaker’s offense — projected as an outfielder to be 11 weighted batting runs over replacement — suffers even a little bit from the mental drain of playing infield, he’s not going to offer anything more than Adam Kennedy would.

In the final analysis, it seems unlikely to happen. As Schumaker himself said last weekend at the Winter Warmup, "I played infield before. There’s a reason why I’m in the outfield, I think … obviously if [Cardinals manager] Tony [La Russa] wants to throw me in that fire, I’ll try it. But I don’t know how realistic that is." We may see Schumaker wear the second-baseman’s glove this year for emergency cases, as Albert Pujols and So Taguchi have done, but anything more than an inning or two here or there isn’t going to help anyone.

*The defensive spectrum looks like this:
[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]
with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of
the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left
end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right
to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.