What the Cardinals can learn from Rickey
With the announcement of Rickey Henderson’s election to the Hall of Fame, many articles have quoted his former manager Tony La Russa to get his thoughts on "The Man of Steal." Rickey might’ve learned something from La Russa, so now, as Rickey heads to the Hall, what can the Cardinals learn from his amazing career?
It’s better to slide head-first.
How did Rickey steal the all-time high 1406 bases? It was because he slid head-first (it didn’t hurt that he was kinda fast). Baserunners will reach the bag faster by sliding head-first, according to David Peters, a professor of engineering who specializes in aircraft and helicopter engineering at Wash. U. Here’s more from the 10/10/08 Dr. Dobb’s Report (warning: geek alert!):
It’s all a matter of the player’s center of gravity …
"It turns out your center of gravity is where the momentum is," Peters says. "This is found half way from the tips of your fingers to the tips of your toes. In the headfirst slide, the center of gravity is lower than halfway between your feet and hands, so your feet don’t get there as fast. It’s faster head-first." Right, but try telling that to my son’s Little League coach.
Peters goes on to say that "mathematically, you might think there’s an advantage, but leaving your feet is actually a detriment because you’re no longer pulsing (pumping your legs) and you start to decelerate. When you’re running, you get your feet out in front of the center of gravity, so you’re getting maybe three or four steps of an advantage."
Fifteen different Cardinals tried to steal in 2008, but we couldn’t think of any who slide Rickey style on a regular basis, though a few have done it occasionally (Rick Ankiel, Brian Barton and Adam Kennedy).
And no, Skip Schumaker, that doesn’t include head-first slides into first base.
Stolen-bases are great, as long as you succeed.
Henderson tried to pilfer 1741 bases in his career. He succeeded 1406 times, or 80% of the time. Tim Raines, whom the voters snubbed this year, stole "only" 808 bases but did so at an 85% rate. As a result, he created only about 42 fewer runs than Rickey via the stolen base. Why?
In order for the practice of stealing bases to be worth it, you need to have a pretty good success rate — around 75%, usually. That’s because of the significant cost of getting thrown out. Sure, you can turn a single into a double or even a triple, but you need to do it three times for every time you get nabbed to even break even. In 2008, the Cardinals didn’t even do that, stealing only 73 of the 105 attempts for 70%. And for a guy who saw Rickey up-close, La Russa has presided over a net loss during his time with the Cardinals — a 71% rate. In short, the Cardinals would’ve scored more runs over the last 13 years if they hadn’t attempted a single stolen base (they would’ve had 547 outs back).
Stolen bases are great, but they pale in comparison to walks.
Rickey is at least 10th on the all-time Runs Created list with around 2164 (if you use his career totals, rather than year-by-year, it’s 2156). How much of that RC total was because of stolen bases? About 6%. For a guy whose HOF plaque will gush about his baserunning prowess, stealing bases was relatively unimportant to his overall offensive contributions. Much more central to his attack was his ability to reach base, notably via the walk (in which he is at least second all-time). His 2190 walks comprised a whopping 41% of his Runs Created. He walked in 16% of his plate appearances.
Albert Pujols knows how valuable walks are. In 2008, he eclipsed 100 walks for the first time in his storied career. Those walks meant around 49 extra runs created, about 31% of his total RC. The question is, will anyone other than Pujols be patient enough to draw walks in 2009?
The best leadoff men reach base often.
Henderson batted leadoff 98% of his plate appearances. His on-base percentage was .401 (.437 neutralized). If you include the times he reached on an error (160), he was on-base at a .413 clip. Henderson is the poster child for the Jamesian tenet that the most important factor in scoring runs is on-base percentage: Because he was on-base so much (avoiding outs), he scored 2295 runs.
The Cardinals haven’t had a leadoff man with a .400 OBP since Tommy Herr’s .403 in 1983 (Renteria came close in 2003 with .394), and even then he wasn’t the main leadoff man. Maybe someday Colby Rasmus will be the Cardinals’ next .400-OBP leaoff man, but we’re not holding our breath. What are the chances La Russa bats Albert Pujols leadoff this season?
January 19th, 2009 at 9:39 am
My sliding theory is that players who dive head first subconsciously slow down slightly more (we’re talking milliseconds, with any of this), pre-slide, out of survival/injury fear.
A new proposal: Everyone (excepting Schumaker) realizes running through a base is the fastest way to get there. If you were allowed to over-run every base, sliding would solely be used to avoid high tags. Given that, any means of ending on a base that is closest to the speed gained running through would be the fastest. I’ll term my new technique “pole vaulting” likely shortened in 50 or 60 years of common use to “vaulting”:
Run straight for the base, exactly as if you were to round and head to the next, but pace yourself such that your outside foot can be jammed as directly and firmly into the angle between the bag and the ground as possible. Given that sticking point, let your body domino over the top of the base, putting full concentration on that foot sticking its spot. It won’t be pretty, but if it gets you on base 1% more, that may be the difference between stealing being worth it (and its absurdity will likely make you famous, leading to fan appeal, a better negotiating stance, and the big bucks).