I would stack our rotation against anybody’s. We don’t have the real big contracts. Well, a couple of them.

— Adam Wainwright, 01/19/2009

So the Cardinals are cautiously optimistic about Chris Carpenter returning for opening day. As a result, they’re not going to worry about their rotation. Is that a wise strategy?

Assuming Carpenter is in it, let’s see how the Cardinals rotation stacks up against rival NL Central staffs, based on CHONE Wins Above Replacement projections for each team’s top five starters:

One might’ve figured that the Cardinals weren’t going to have the best first five in the division, but last? Even the Pirates stand to have a better rotation.

It’s a sobering possibility — and, again, that’s with Carpenter. All right, so maybe at 85 innings of 3.71 ERA, the projection is not the amount of Carpenter that everyone is hoping for. And despite Adam Wainwright having pitched only one season with more than 132 innings, it seems likely that he’ll pitch more than the projected 124 innings. But even if we increase Carpenter’s innings to 120 and Wainwright’s to 170, that still leaves the rotation behind Chicago and Cincinnati:

Based on the CHONE projections, the only way that the Cardinals’ rotation can be competitive is if both Wainwright and Carpenter each pitch 200 innings, a highly unlikely scenario:

So standing pat would seem like a bad strategy, even if Carpenter is completely healthy. But what are the options? Many starting pitchers are still swimming in the pool of free agents, and the team can afford a reasonable contract. The questions are whom, how much and how long? Unfortunately, only a couple offer a worthwhile upgrade from the Cardinals’ worst-projected starter, Joel Pineiro (0.9 WAR):

With middling free-agent arms like Odalis Perez, Justin Germano and Braden Looper (remember him?), the Cardinals would be spending at least $5 million to improve less than half a win. Similarly, the only pitchers who offer a substantial upgrade — Sheets, Oliver Perez and Jon Garland — are likely to be too expensive to warrant that upgrade (we’re guessing $10 million+). And don’t forget that those higher-end pitchers are going to require multiple-year deals.

So the Cardinals, if they’re wise and avoid the FA market (assuming they aren’t able to nab one of them with a sweetheart deal), will be stuck with what they have, just as Mozeliak has said. It’s still possible, of course, that Mozeliak can work some more magic and acquire a starter in a trade (we don’t suppose the Indians would be silly enough to trade back Anthony Reyes, projected to have 1.2 WAR). Otherwise, it’s another season predicated on the health of Chris Carpenter (earning $14 million this year), which is to say not a very comfortable position to be in. But that’s the wages of giving long-term contract extensions to pitchers with injury histories. At least the team can avoid making late-term Jocketty-era mistakes and steer clear of the likes of Sheets. Until Carpenter’s contract comes off the books after the 2012 season (gasp), the Cardinals are going to have to lie in the bed they made.

This entry was posted by Pip on Monday, January 19th, 2009 at 3:40 pm and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.