Tune in Click and listen to the United Cardinal Bloggers’ Wednesday-night radio hour, beginning at 9pm central tonight (Wednesday). We’ll join host Nick from Pitchers Hit Eighth and special guest Derrick Goold and will discuss all matters Cardinal, plus Derrick’s All-Unsigned Team and maybe even our favorite Jeff Kent stories.

I would stack our rotation against anybody’s. We don’t have the real big contracts. Well, a couple of them.

— Adam Wainwright, 01/19/2009

So the Cardinals are cautiously optimistic about Chris Carpenter returning for opening day. As a result, they’re not going to worry about their rotation. Is that a wise strategy?

Assuming Carpenter is in it, let’s see how the Cardinals rotation stacks up against rival NL Central staffs, based on CHONE Wins Above Replacement projections for each team’s top five starters:

One might’ve figured that the Cardinals weren’t going to have the best first five in the division, but last? Even the Pirates stand to have a better rotation.

It’s a sobering possibility — and, again, that’s with Carpenter. All right, so maybe at 85 innings of 3.71 ERA, the projection is not the amount of Carpenter that everyone is hoping for. And despite Adam Wainwright having pitched only one season with more than 132 innings, it seems likely that he’ll pitch more than the projected 124 innings. But even if we increase Carpenter’s innings to 120 and Wainwright’s to 170, that still leaves the rotation behind Chicago and Cincinnati:

Based on the CHONE projections, the only way that the Cardinals’ rotation can be competitive is if both Wainwright and Carpenter each pitch 200 innings, a highly unlikely scenario:

So standing pat would seem like a bad strategy, even if Carpenter is completely healthy. But what are the options? Many starting pitchers are still swimming in the pool of free agents, and the team can afford a reasonable contract. The questions are whom, how much and how long? Unfortunately, only a couple offer a worthwhile upgrade from the Cardinals’ worst-projected starter, Joel Pineiro (0.9 WAR):

With middling free-agent arms like Odalis Perez, Justin Germano and Braden Looper (remember him?), the Cardinals would be spending at least $5 million to improve less than half a win. Similarly, the only pitchers who offer a substantial upgrade — Sheets, Oliver Perez and Jon Garland — are likely to be too expensive to warrant that upgrade (we’re guessing $10 million+). And don’t forget that those higher-end pitchers are going to require multiple-year deals.

So the Cardinals, if they’re wise and avoid the FA market (assuming they aren’t able to nab one of them with a sweetheart deal), will be stuck with what they have, just as Mozeliak has said. It’s still possible, of course, that Mozeliak can work some more magic and acquire a starter in a trade (we don’t suppose the Indians would be silly enough to trade back Anthony Reyes, projected to have 1.2 WAR). Otherwise, it’s another season predicated on the health of Chris Carpenter (earning $14 million this year), which is to say not a very comfortable position to be in. But that’s the wages of giving long-term contract extensions to pitchers with injury histories. At least the team can avoid making late-term Jocketty-era mistakes and steer clear of the likes of Sheets. Until Carpenter’s contract comes off the books after the 2012 season (gasp), the Cardinals are going to have to lie in the bed they made.

With the announcement of Rickey Henderson’s election to the Hall of Fame, many articles have quoted his former manager Tony La Russa to get his thoughts on "The Man of Steal." Rickey might’ve learned something from La Russa, so now, as Rickey heads to the Hall, what can the Cardinals learn from his amazing career?

It’s better to slide head-first.
How did Rickey steal the all-time high 1406 bases? It was because he slid head-first (it didn’t hurt that he was kinda fast). Baserunners will reach the bag faster by sliding head-first, according to David Peters, a professor of engineering who specializes in aircraft and helicopter engineering at Wash. U. Here’s more from the 10/10/08 Dr. Dobb’s Report (warning: geek alert!):

It’s all a matter of the player’s center of gravity …

"It turns out your center of gravity is where the momentum is," Peters says. "This is found half way from the tips of your fingers to the tips of your toes. In the headfirst slide, the center of gravity is lower than halfway between your feet and hands, so your feet don’t get there as fast. It’s faster head-first." Right, but try telling that to my son’s Little League coach.

Peters goes on to say that "mathematically, you might think there’s an advantage, but leaving your feet is actually a detriment because you’re no longer pulsing (pumping your legs) and you start to decelerate. When you’re running, you get your feet out in front of the center of gravity, so you’re getting maybe three or four steps of an advantage."

Fifteen different Cardinals tried to steal in 2008, but we couldn’t think of any who slide Rickey style on a regular basis, though a few have done it occasionally (Rick Ankiel, Brian Barton and Adam Kennedy).

And no, Skip Schumaker, that doesn’t include head-first slides into first base.

Stolen-bases are great, as long as you succeed.
Henderson tried to pilfer 1741 bases in his career. He succeeded 1406 times, or 80% of the time. Tim Raines, whom the voters snubbed this year, stole "only" 808 bases but did so at an 85% rate. As a result, he created only about 42 fewer runs than Rickey via the stolen base. Why?

In order for the practice of stealing bases to be worth it, you need to have a pretty good success rate — around 75%, usually. That’s because of the significant cost of getting thrown out. Sure, you can turn a single into a double or even a triple, but you need to do it three times for every time you get nabbed to even break even. In 2008, the Cardinals didn’t even do that, stealing only 73 of the 105 attempts for 70%. And for a guy who saw Rickey up-close, La Russa has presided over a net loss during his time with the Cardinals — a 71% rate. In short, the Cardinals would’ve scored more runs over the last 13 years if they hadn’t attempted a single stolen base (they would’ve had 547 outs back).

Stolen bases are great, but they pale in comparison to walks.
Rickey is at least 10th on the all-time Runs Created list with around 2164 (if you use his career totals, rather than year-by-year, it’s 2156). How much of that RC total was because of stolen bases? About 6%. For a guy whose HOF plaque will gush about his baserunning prowess, stealing bases was relatively unimportant to his overall offensive contributions. Much more central to his attack was his ability to reach base, notably via the walk (in which he is at least second all-time). His 2190 walks comprised a whopping 41% of his Runs Created. He walked in 16% of his plate appearances.

Albert Pujols knows how valuable walks are. In 2008, he eclipsed 100 walks for the first time in his storied career. Those walks meant around 49 extra runs created, about 31% of his total RC. The question is, will anyone other than Pujols be patient enough to draw walks in 2009?

The best leadoff men reach base often.
Henderson batted leadoff 98% of his plate appearances. His on-base percentage was .401 (.437 neutralized). If you include the times he reached on an error (160), he was on-base at a .413 clip. Henderson is the poster child for the Jamesian tenet that the most important factor in scoring runs is on-base percentage: Because he was on-base so much (avoiding outs), he scored 2295 runs.

The Cardinals haven’t had a leadoff man with a .400 OBP since Tommy Herr’s .403 in 1983 (Renteria came close in 2003 with .394), and even then he wasn’t the main leadoff man. Maybe someday Colby Rasmus will be the Cardinals’ next .400-OBP leaoff man, but we’re not holding our breath. What are the chances La Russa bats Albert Pujols leadoff this season?

Derrick Goold has an interesting post attempting to answer the question "Did the Cardinals improve their lefty relief?" Using the newly acquired LOOGys’ 2008 numbers compared to the former Cardinal LOOGys, he concludes that indeed the team has improved, with the caveat of Trever Miller’s health.

We’ll offer another take, this one using 2009 projections for the incoming LOOGys — 40-man-roster players Miller, Charlie Manning, Royce Ring and spring-training invitee Ian Ostlund. In order to compare the pitchers with a metric that encompasses effectiveness and playing time, we’ll generate their expected Pitching Runs Created, a kind of pitching equivalent of batter Runs Created. As we did in the 2008 playoffs, we tweak the formula a bit to use Fielding-Independent (FIP) ERA rather than plain-old ERA. For most of the pitchers, multiple different projections are available (e.g., Marcel, CHONE, Bill James):

A lot can and will happen in spring training, but ceteris parabis, Manning and Miller figure to offer the best seasons, with a total of 50 projected PRC. Now, that could be just a case of variant projections. Just to be on the safe side, if we average the available projections, perhaps we’ll have a more reasonable expectation:

And how does the combo of Miller and Manning compare with last season’s LOOGys?

So, using a different approach, we come to the same conclusion as Goold: The Cardinals have indeed upgraded their portside relievers from last year. However, Goold does note the important detail of the iffiness of Miller’s health. In that case, what’s the best-case scenario without Miller, and for that matter, what’s the worst-case scenario altogether?

By diversifying, the Cardinals seem to have reduced their risk, since even in a bad scenario, they’ll have lefties who can do the job. Perhaps they won’t be great, but they’ll most likely be an upgrade over last year. That may say more about the LOOGy situation in 2008, but the bottom line is that it is one aspect of the team that is improved for 2009.

Finally, Goold brings up the question of opportunity lost by not pursuing other options, such as Brian Shouse, Will Ohman and Arthur Rhodes. Do they project better than the cadre that the Cardinals have hired?

Using the averages for these players, it’s unclear that the Cardinals could’ve really done better by adding Shouse or Rhodes. And while Ohman does represent an upgrade over any of the LOOGys the Cardinals brought in, it’s hard to imagine that his salary demands are less than what the Cardinals signed anyone for. When we’re talking about a difference of around five runs created, that’s less than one win over the season.

One of our favorite surprise gifts of Christmas was a book entitled "Not Quite What I Was Planning: Six-Word Memoirs by Writers Famous and Obscure." As you might expect from the title, it’s a collection of memoirs using only six words.

We enjoyed this curiously creative literary form so much that we’d like to offer a few memoirs for the 2008 Cardinals. Feel free to add your own if the muse strikes.

Elbow didn’t blow, so won MVP.

– Albert Pujols

Always said I could hit. See?

– Ryan Ludwick

Good glove, no hit. Life story.

– Cesar Izturis

PEDs? Maybe. Hit 25 dingers, regardless.

– Rick Ankiel

Parlayed season into fat contract. Thanks!

– Kyle Lohse

Started strong, ran out of gas.

– Kyle McClellan

Call me Crash Davis. With mullet.

– Jason LaRue

Booed. Injured. Looking forward to 2009.

– Chris Duncan

Glad to be here. All year.

– Brian Barton

I’m not a fourth outfielder anymore.

– Skip Schumaker

What do you want from me?

– Braden Looper

Guess I’ll get 300 somewhere else.

– Jason Isringhausen

My badness flew under the radar.

– Joel Pineiro

I’ll play anywhere you want. Hard.

– Joe Mather

See ya. Wouldn’t wanna be ya.

– Anthony Reyes

Traded Astroturf for grass. (Sorry, Scott.)

– Troy Glaus

I can’t believe I’m still here.

– Adam Kennedy

Not best, but won Gold Glove.

– Yadier Molina

Finally left team on high note.

– Felipe Lopez

Inspired some hope but not confidence.

– Chris Perez

The Colonel commanded the zone, battled.

– Todd Wellemeyer

Injury sidetracked awesome year. Closer? Really?

– Adam Wainwright

Glad Cubs don’t know about BABIP.

– Aaron Miles

Unwarranted Type-A status = goodbye, ROOGy.

– Russ Springer

Loved team, just not the finish.

– Tony LaRussa

Traded Rolen, Edmonds, Reyes. Batting .667.

– John Mozeliak

Won divisions, championship, but not fans.

– Bill DeWitt