Cubs (93 wins): Offense is still stacked, though much hinges on the health of Milton Bradley, which usually isn’t a winning strategy. While their pitching staff, when healthy, is dominant, the first four in the rotation are all on the wrong side of their peaks.
Cardinals (88 wins): Khalil Greene may be an upgrade at shortstop, but the team will find it difficult to repeat the 2008 seasons of Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus. They will contend until Carpenter’s motor blows, and a Rick Ankiel deadline trade will benefit the club long-term but incense the shortsighted fan base.
Reds (78 wins): Despite losing the unappreciated Adam Dunn, the Reds will surprisingly decent, with promising young players in the outfield and first base. Their starting staff, assuming Aaron Harang regresses to his usual self, is as deep as anyone’s in the division.
Brewers (78 wins): When the most complimentary adjective you can give your starting rotation is “innings eaters,” you’re in for a long season. Losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, who accounted for 12% of the team’s Win Shares in 2008, the Brewers might see a nine-game falloff from their 87 Pythagorean wins last year.
Astros (76 wins): We look down the lineup and see age. Carlos Lee, Miguel Tegada, Lance Berkman and Ivan Rodriguez would’ve made for an All-Star team in the early 2000s but now epitomize the decline of the division’s one-time pride. Berkman will still produce, but not enough to compensate for a rotation that includes Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz.
Pirates (66 wins): The Pirates have a few bright spots, and actually outscored division foes Houston and Cincinnati in 2008. But even if Nate McLouth repeats, Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss together won’t create as many runs as Jason Bay does in Boston.

This entry was posted by Pip on Thursday, April 2nd, 2009 at 8:44 am and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.