[Editor's note: This is the eighth inning of the United Cardinal Bloggers' progressive game blog. You can also read about the seventh inning, the ninth inning and every other inning of the game.]

Kyle Lohse picked up in the eighth inning of Saturday’s game against the Royals where he had left off in the seventh, inducing a harmless groundout to himself. The play underscored Lohse’s self-sufficiency throughout the game, as he took care of almost a third of the not-so-Royal batters (nine of 29) himself either via strikeout (six), assist (two) or putout (one). Like his friends in the Cardinal rotation this week, Lohse was also efficient with his pitches, throwing only 86 entering the eighth inning. During the five-man cycle, starting with Joel Pineiro on Tuesday, the rotation averaged a mere 3.50 pitches per plate appearance:

For a club whose pitchers already are among the majors’ most efficient, the work of this week was exemplary. Then again, mere pitch efficiency doesn’t necessarily translate into success: After all, Washington’s pitchers lead the league in P/PA but also in walks. It can, however, mean that a pitcher’s defense is more lively, and Lohse kept his fielders in the game, especially centerfielder Colby Rasmus, who traced a sinking line drive from Coco Crisp, the second batter of the inning, like an eagle plucking its prey. Lohse then froze David DeJesus with a 92-mph fastball on the low-and-inside corner, the fifth of five pitches in the at-bat in DeJesus’s coldest zone (inset shows batting average by zone):

Lohse’s control was impeccable to the last.

Lohse’s precision was a contrast to what took place in the bottom half of the inning, when erstwhile LOOGy Ron Mahay, who had entered the game in the seventh to pitch to three of four Cardinal lefties and yielded an inherited run, remained in to face Brendan Ryan (in for a fielding save) leading off the Cards’ half of the eighth. If Mahay couldn’t get the job done in platoon-favorable matchups (he is 20 Gross-Production Average points better vs. lefties), he wouldn’t fare much better against the string of righties due up. The Flyin’ Irishman slammed a double to the wall and yet the Royals’ bullpen remained quiet, manager Trey Hillman apparently content to leave Mahay to go down with the sinking ship. Yadier Molina bailed him out temporarily with a sac bunt (another in a rash of non-positive win-probability bunts this week, including Lohse’s -.008 WPA in the fourth and Tyler Greene’s -.003 in the seventh), sending Ryan to third.

After Mahay, forced to do his best 2008 Ron Villone impression, walked Brian Barden, the normally conservative Tony La Russa, perhaps a glutton for another shutout for one of his starting pitchers, sent Lohse up to the plate. At that point, the Cardinals had about a 99% chance of winning the game, and Lohse bunted at and missed the first pitch. Advancing one or even both of the runners isn’t going to do much for the team’s win probability — the game was already in the bag. TLR needed to ask himself, is the risk of my starting pitcher being injured for the sake of a few 10ths of a percent win-probability added worth it? Of course, it’s a 20-20 hindsight question, since Mahay plunked Lohse on the next pitch, and Lohse didn’t return to pitch the ninth. As he started toward first base, Lohse glared at Mahay, who perhaps was retaliating for Lohse dotting Jose Guillen with a fastball in the sixth. On the other hand, Mahay walked three batters, so he maintains plausible deniability.

Mahay walked Greene to force in the Cardinals’ fifth run but finally gathered himself and retired southpaws Skip Schumaker and Rasmus. All tallied, Hillman had hung Mahay out for 11 batters, of whom only five were lefties. Sure, Hillman’s relief corps is without the services of Joakim Soria, but exactly what part of Lefthanded One-Out Guy doesn’t the Royals’ manager understand?

This entry was posted by Pip on Sunday, May 24th, 2009 at 1:45 am and is filed under analysis, group blogging. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.