Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for June, 2009

Traditional Triple Crown vs. Sabermetric Triple Crown: a history

Friday, June 12th, 2009

Loyal friend and reader DaveBug recently asked via Twitter, "Using your Triple Crown def (RC/TB/OBP) who won it that didn’t win the old trio, and who won that that didn’t win the SABR version?" Ask and ye shall receive, DaveBug. We suppose being part of a limited readership has its benefits! We’ve actually been meaning to do a comprehensive post like this for some time now. After all, we first wrote about our so-called Sabermetric Triple Crown back in 2005 and revised it later that year, so it’s about time.

Major-league players have won the traditional batting triple crown 16 times, including 19th-century leagues. Due to the highly correlative stats in the Sabermetric version, it has been won 55 times. Of the four traditional triple crowns in the National League (three of which were by Cardinals, we should add) and 23 Sabermetic crowns, three have been both (in boldface):

Traditional Winner BA HR RBI Year Sabermetric Winner OBP TB RC
1882 Dan Brouthers (BUF) .403 243 77
1885 Roger Connor (NYG) .435 225 98
1901 Jesse Burkett (STL) .440 306 132
1904 Honus Wagner (PIT) .423 255 107
1907 Honus Wagner (PIT) .408 264 106
1908 Honus Wagner (PIT) .415 308 126
1909 Honus Wagner (PIT) .420 242 101
1910 Sherry Magee (PHI) .445 263 114
1915 Gavvy Cravath (PHI) .393 266 101
1920 Rogers Hornsby (STL) .431 329 136
1921 Rogers Hornsby (STL) .458 378 167
Rogers Hornsby (STL) .401 42 152 1922 Rogers Hornsby (STL) .459 450 202
1924 Rogers Hornsby (STL) .507 373 183
Rogers Hornsby (STL) .403 39 143 1925 Rogers Hornsby (STL) .489 381 185
Chuck Klein (PHI) .368 28 120 1933 Chuck Klein (PHI) .422 365 154
Joe Medwick (STL) .374 31 154 1937
1943 Stan Musial (STL) .425 347 147
1948 Stan Musial (STL) .450 429 192
1949 Stan Musial (STL) .438 382 167
1965 Willie Mays (SFG) .398 360 143
1981 Mike Schmidt (PHI) .435 228 102
1993 Barry Bonds (SFG) .458 365 172
1997 Larry Walker (COL) .452 409 187
2000 Todd Helton (COL) .463 405 192

Cardinal Stan Musial, who never won a traditional triple, gets his due with the Sabermetric triple crown (three), while Rogers Hornsby leads all senior-circuit players with five. While it’s been a long time in the National League since someone won a traditional triple crown, fans need look no further than Todd Helton’s 2000 campaign for the latest example of an all-around superior offensive season.

Now for the American League, which has seen nine traditional winners, 21 Sabermetric winners and seven cross-overs:

Traditional Winner BA HR RBI Year Sabermetric Winner OBP TB RC
Nap Lajoie (PHA) .426 14 125 1901 Nap Lajoie (PHA) .463 350 158
1904 Nap Lajoie (CLE) .413 305 124
1906 George Stone (SLB) .417 291 120
Ty Cobb (DET) .377 9 107 1909 Ty Cobb (DET) .431 296 126
1915 Ty Cobb (DET) .486 274 138
1917 Ty Cobb (DET) .444 335 148
1919 Babe Ruth (BOS) .456 284 128
1921 Babe Ruth (NYY) .512 457 229
1923 Babe Ruth (NYY) .545 399 209
1924 Babe Ruth (NYY) .513 391 194
1926 Babe Ruth (NYY) .516 365 185
Jimmie Foxx (PHA) .356 48 163 1933
Lou Gehrig (NYY) .363 49 165 1934 Lou Gehrig (NYY) .465 409 189
1938 Jimmie Foxx (BOS) .462 398 183
Ted Williams (BOS) .356 36 137 1942 Ted Williams (BOS) .499 338 168
1946 Ted Williams (BOS) .497 343 170
Ted Williams (BOS) .343 32 114 1947 Ted Williams (BOS) .499 335 166
1949 Ted Williams (BOS) .490 368 180
1951 Ted Williams (BOS) .464 295 137
Mickey Mantle (NYY) .353 52 130 1956
Frank Robinson (BAL) .316 49 122 1966 Frank Robinson (BAL) .410 367 146
Carl Yastrzemski (BOS) .326 44 121 1967 Carl Yastrzemski (BOS) .418 360 155
1970 Carl Yastrzemski (BOS) .452 335 157

Babe Ruth, who was shut out out the traditional triple crown by high-average hitters like Ty Cobb, Harry Heilman and George Sisler (despite finishing with a career .342 BA, Ruth won only one batting-average title; he won 13 OBP titles), won the Sabermetric version five times. Carl Yastrzemski’s 1967 triple crown is often cited as the last triple crown in baseball, but his Sabermetric crown in 1970 is the more recent target for junior-circuit players looking to singlehandedly dominate their league.

And for those of you 19th-century aficianados and Federal League fans, the rest of the leagues:

Traditional Winner BA HR RBI Year-Lg Sabermetric Winner OBP TB RC
1871-NA Levi Meyerle (ATH) # .500 91 47
1873-NA Ross Barnes (BOS) .456 188 87
1876-NL Ross Barnes (CHC) .462 190 88
Paul Hines (PRO) .358 4 50 1878-NL
1881-NL Cap Anson (CHC) .442 175 77
1882-NL Dan Brouthers (BUF) .403 192 77
1883-NL Dan Brouthers (BUF) .397 243 96
1884-UA Fred Dunlap (SLM) .448 279 125
1885-AA Pete Browning (LOU) .430 255 100
1885-NL Roger Connor (NYG) .435 225 98
Tip O’Neill (STL) .435 14 123 1887-AA Tip O’Neill (STL) .490 357 173
Hugh Duffy (BSN) .440 18 145 1894-NL
1914-FL Benny Kauff (IND) .447 305 134

# Meyerle tied with Ross Barnes for the league lead in total bases.

Only one of the nine Sabermetric winners won the traditional. Moreoever, only two — Anson and Brouthers — are in the Hall of Fame. Happily, SABR is holding a special "2009 Overlooked 19th Century Base Ball Legends Election," and Ross Barnes and Pete Browning are on the ballot (the others are Bill Dahlen, Jack Glasscock, George Gore, Paul Hines, Bobby Mathews, Tony Mullane, Harry Stovy and Deacon White; read more about them at the SABR Bio Project). We plan to vote for the two Sabermetric winners; please let us know if you’d like us to vote for anyone else.

Pitchers who out-hit their opponents

Sunday, June 7th, 2009

Former Cardinal pitcher Dan Haren pulled off a remarkable feat last Tuesday: He had more hits as a batter — three — than he allowed as a pitcher — two. It seemed like a rare enough accomplishment, so we wondered if any pitchers had turned the trick while they were still Cardinals. As it turns out, at least seven have (since 1954):

Pitcher Date Hits Allowed Hits At-Bat
Murry Dickson 8/19/1956 2 3
Mike Torrez 4/15/1970 1 3
Bob Gibson 6/17/1970 1 2
Bob Gibson 8/14/1971 0 1
John Urrea 9/21/1978 1 2
Rick Ankiel 4/20/2000 2 3
Al Reyes 9/25/2004 0 1

Murry Dickson, 8/19/1956
Pitching the first game of a doubleheader against the Cubs, Dickson threw a nine-inning shutout, striking out nine and walking only one to go with his two hits allowed. The first of his three hits in the game accounted for the biggest single play (+12% WPA), driving in the Cardinals’ second run in the second inning.

Mike Torrez, 4/15/1970
Torrez didn’t just top his opponent in hits, he tripled their total. Holding the Expos to just one safety in nine innings (33 batters), Torrez knocked three singles and scored twice. On the down side, he walked six (and struck out only three) and hit a batter.

Bob Gibson, 6/17/1970
Gibson tossed one of the most dominant games of his career, defeating the Padres with 13 strikeouts and only one hit. He also raised his batting average to .381 (he would finish the year with a .303 BA and .347 OBP) with a pair of hits, one of which was the game’s biggest play (+10 WPA). Incredibly, it was the second game in one season in which a Cardinal pitcher had had more hits than he allowed.

Bob Gibson, 8/14/1971
What more humiliating way to defeat an opponent than when your pitcher gets a hit and can say he had more hits than the entire opposing team? That’s what Hoot did back in 1971 when he fired off his no-hitter and slammed a two-run single in the process. And if that weren’t enough, he added a sac fly for good measure — and three total RBIs. (We’d be interested to know whether any other pitchers besides Gibson have pulled off the stunt twice.)

John Urrea, 9/21/1978
Urrea’s career was otherwise undistinguished, but on this day, he nearly singlehandedly defeated the Mets 6-2. He yielded only one hit over seven innings (31 batters faced), struck out four and walked two. He drove in two runs to the delight of the 3,912 fans at Busch Stadium who witnessed the feat.

Rick Ankiel, 4/20/2000
Once upon a time, Rick Ankiel was a promising pitcher, of course. In the 13th game of his career, back on April 20, 2000, he offered a preview of what would become of both his pitching and hitting careers. He held the Padres to only two hits over five innings, and blasted a home run and hit two singles. The only problem was that he walked seven batters, foreshadowing the wildness that would ultimately force him off the mound and into the outfield where he could hit more of those home runs.

Al Reyes, 9/25/2004
What is Al Reyes doing on this list, you ask? Back when the Cardinals were winning 100 games a year, Tony La Russa used reliever Reyes late in September to kick off a "bullpen start" in order to rest his starting pitchers. Reyes pitched three scoreless and hitless innings and batted only once. But he made it count, singling off the Rockies’ Joe Kennedy. Interestingly enough, Ankiel relieved Reyes and surrendered five runs. He struck out in his at-bat, then fellow hurler Woody Williams pinch-hit for him — and struck out.

Pujols ties Hernandez’s on-base streak, eyes Musial

Friday, June 5th, 2009

Keith Hernandez is in the news again, so naturally we couldn’t bypass the opportunity to comment. The offensive hero of the Cardinals’ 3-1 win over the Reds Thursday night was Albert Pujols*, who in reaching base twice, tied Mex for consecutive games reaching base at least twice. Both legendary Cardinal first basemen have streaks of 15 games; only Stan Musial has more (since at least 1954):

Player Start End Gm AB H BB BA OBP SLG
Stan Musial 4/17/1958 5/7/1958 16 63 35 11 .556 .613 .905
Albert Pujols 5/20/2009 6/4/2009 15 44 19 19 .432 .594 .841
Keith Hernandez 9/12/1980 9/26/1980 15 53 21 17 .396 .543 .585
Jim Edmonds 4/27/2000 5/10/2000 13 41 20 14 .488 .607 .854
Ray Lankford 4/19/1994 5/4/1994 12 43 16 13 .372 .534 .837
Lou Brock 9/1/1967 9/12/1967 12 49 19 9 .388 .483 .735

Interestingly, the major-league record is shared by a pair of cheaters, Pete Rose and Barry Bonds, so perhaps it’s a dubious honor for Pujols to attain to:

Player Start End Gm
Barry Bonds 6/20/2004 7/15/2004 20
Pete Rose 9/3/1979 9/22/1979 20
Jason Giambi 9/20/2000 4/8/2001 18
Steve Finley 6/20/1996 7/11/1996 18
Barry Bonds 9/7/2002 9/24/2002 17
Tony Phillips 6/28/1993 7/17/1993 17
Duane Kuiper 7/15/1976 8/2/1976 17
Ted Williams 7/25/1957 8/11/1957 17
Johnny Damon 7/27/2008 8/12/2008 16
Barry Bonds 5/13/2004 6/6/2004 16
Jason Giambi 6/14/2003 6/30/2003 16
Mark Grace 7/31/1998 8/20/1998 16
Deion Sanders 4/9/1994 4/26/1994 16
George Brett 7/8/1990 7/26/1990 16
Wade Boggs 5/13/1988 5/30/1988 16
Alan Trammell 5/27/1987 6/14/1987 16
Eddie Mathews 9/29/1962 4/22/1963 16
Stan Musial 4/17/1958 5/7/1958 16
Ted Williams 5/17/1957 6/2/1957 16

The Cardinals face the Rockies’ Jorge de la Rosa tonight, against whom Pujols has a .417 OBP in 12 plate appearances. We like his chances, even if it means surpassing one Cardinal legend and tying another.

*Who has claimed on multiple occasions that he hasn’t used PEDs but has never volunteered to be tested to attempt to prove it.

Wainwright’s regress

Monday, June 1st, 2009

Adam Wainwright tossed in a subpar outing Sunday in San Francisco in the Cardinals’ 5-3 loss to the Giants. Wainwright, who had brought a string of three games in which he struck out at least seven batters, fanned only three and walked two batters of the team who walks least in the league.

We noted last week that Wainwright’s release-point change was successful. Did his performance Sunday have anything to do with his release point? Did he regress?

waino-release-point2

It appears that, after taking a step forward beginning on May 16, Wainwright took a step back Sunday. From his May 26 outing to Sunday’s, Wainwright seemed to return to his higher, overhead delivery — about four to five inches higher and three to four inches more overhead (again, thanks to Brooks Baseball). As a result, his two-seam fastball (which he threw 49 times Sunday, averaging a horizontal break of -7.92 and a vertical break of 8.43) wasn’t quite as sharp, moving about halfway between its pre-5/16 break (-7.05, 9.46) and its post-5/16 averages (-8.92, 7.55). It also appears that Wainwright’s curveball suffered yesterday, breaking about an inch less horizontally (8.32 to 7.43) from his 5/26 performance, though that’s a relatively small change.

We trust that the pitcher’s advisors, among them Chris Carpenter, will note the subtle shift and bring it to Wainwright’s attention in time for his next start, though, of course, Carpenter now has other performances to pay attention to, such as his own.