All-Star rosters (and prediction!) by WAR
According to Joe Strauss, Vegas has the American League as the favorite to win the All-Star Game tonight. We’re not sure what numbers they’re looking at, but we thought we’d check out WAR — Wins Above Replacement — for the respective teams.
First, let’s see how the starting lineups compare:
| Pos | AL | WAR | NL | WAR | Advantage |
| 1 | Roy Halladay, TOR | 4.2 | Tim Lincecum, SF | 5.3 | NL |
| 2 | Joe Mauer, MIN | 4.1 | Yadier Molina, STL | 1.8 | AL |
| 3 | Mark Teixeira, NYY | 2.4 | Albert Pujols, STL | 5.1 | NL |
| 4 | Aaron Hill, TOR | 2.6 | Chase Utley, PHI | 4.8 | NL |
| 5 | Michael Young, TEX | 1.4 | David Wright, NYM | 2.6 | NL |
| 6 | Derek Jeter, NYY | 3.5 | Hanley Ramirez, FLA | 4.1 | NL |
| 7 | Jason Bay, BOS | 1.9 | Ryan Braun, MIL | 2.9 | NL |
| 8 | Josh Hamilton, TEX | 1.0 | Shane Victorino, PHI | 1.8 | NL |
| 9 | Ichiro Suzuki, SEA | 3.3 | Raul Ibanez, PHI | 3.0 | AL |
| Total | 24.4 | Total | 31.4 | NL |
Advantage: NL
The NL had an advantage even before Michael Young (1.4 WAR) replaced Evan Longoria (3.8) and his infected finger in the junior circuit’s lineup. NL manager Charlie Manual will be wise to stick with his starters as long as possible. Maddon’s pick of Halladay to start, while defensible, was less preferable WAR-wise than Greinke.
On the other hand, Longoria’s effective replacement, Chone Figgins (2.9), actually upgrades the AL bench, where the AL already had the upper hand:
| Pos | AL | WAR | NL | WAR |
| C | Victor Martinez, CLE | 2.6 | Brian McCann, ATL | 2.4 |
| 1B | Kevin Youkilis, BOS | 3.1 | Prince Fielder, MIL | 3.7 |
| 1B | Justin Morneau, MIN | 3.0 | Adrian Gonzalez, SD | 2.9 |
| 1B | Carlos Pena, TB | 1.9 | Ryan Howard, PHI | 2.2 |
| U | Ben Zobrist, TB | 4.6 | Justin Upton, ARI | 3.5 |
| U | Brandon Inge, DET | 3.5 | Ryan Zimmerman, WSH | 3.2 |
| U | Jason Bartlett, TB | 3.3 | Jayson Werth, PHI | 2.8 |
| U | Carl Crawford, TB | 3.1 | Freddy Sanchez, PIT | 2.6 |
| U | Chone Figgins, LAA | 2.9 | Hunter Pence, HOU | 2.2 |
| U | Nelson Cruz, TEX | 2.7 | Miguel Tejada, HOU | 1.9 |
| U | Curtis Granderson, DET | 2.2 | Orlando Hudson, LAD | 1.6 |
| U | Adam Jones, BAL | 1.5 | Brad Hawpe, COL | 1.4 |
| Total | 34.4 | Total | 30.4 |
Advantage: AL
Then we have the "relief" pitchers:
| AL | WAR | NL | WAR |
| Zack Greinke, KC | 5.8 | Dan Haren, ARI | 4.3 |
| Justin Verlander, DET | 4.3 | Josh Johnson, FLA | 3.4 |
| Felix Hernandez, SEA | 3.8 | Chad Billingsley, LAD | 2.4 |
| Josh Beckett, BOS | 3.5 | Jason Marquis, COL | 2.3 |
| Edwin Jackson, DET | 3.1 | Ted Lilly, CHC | 2.2 |
| Tim Wakefield, BOS | 2.1 | Johan Santana, NYM | 2.0 |
| Mark Buehrle, CWS | 1.8 | Zach Duke, PIT | 1.6 |
| Andrew Bailey, OAK | 1.5 | Heath Bell, SD | 1.3 |
| Joe Nathan, MIN | 1.4 | Trevor Hoffman, MIL | 0.9 |
| Mariano Rivera, NYY | 1.2 | Francisco Cordero, CIN | 0.8 |
| Brian Fuentes, LAA | 1.0 | Ryan Franklin, STL | 0.7 |
| Jonathan Papelbon, BOS | 0.7 | Francisco Rodriguez, NYM | 0.4 |
| Total | 30.2 | Total | 22.3 |
Advantage: AL
Manual clearly missed some opportunities to shore up his pitching staff, opting for lesser lights like Franklin and K-Rod rather than Javier Vazquez (4.0 WAR), whom we agree with Sky Kalkman was the biggest snub (though he would’ve have been available to pitch). Even if he had stuck with actual relief pitchers, he might’ve improved the NL with picks of Rafael Soriano (1.7), Brian Wilson (1.2) or Chad Qualls (1.0). And as for Pittsburgh’s pitching rep, Paul Maholm (2.1) should’ve received the honor rather than Duke.
Summary
Based on WAR values, the game would be decided by factors of how long Manual, with his only advantage being his starting lineup, leaves in his starters and how well Maddon, who has a deeper bench, deploys his reserves. And if Manual doesn’t have to go too deep into his bullpen, the Nationals will stand a better chance. Cardinal fans may fantasize about Ryan Franklin saving the game, but if they know what’s best for their league, they’ll hope his next outing isn’t until later this week.
Prediction: NL 4, AL 3