Duncan deserved better from baseball’s “best fans”
Chris Duncan was freed yesterday. Cardinal fans should take the opportunity to do the same for their minds. With the Cardinals trading the clubhouse-popular but fan-loathed Duncan to the Boston Red Sox for the questionable Julio Lugo, the putative best fans in baseball — or at least a not-insignificant subset of them — have lost their whipping boy. Duncan deserved to be treated better.
After spending nearly his entire minor-league career as a first baseman (he played only 47 games in the outfield), Duncan learned the challenges of left field on the job in the majors. He was constantly heckled for his defense — even in the World Series — but played better than he looked; although he never looked graceful, he got the job done through effort and hustle. True, his career -8.7 UZR/150 made him a perenially below-average fielder, but he was far from worst in the majors (see Hideki Matsui, Adam Dunn and Scott Hairston). Unfortunately, fans accustomed to the naturally gifted Rick Ankiel’s gaudy displays of arm strength never appreciated Duncan’s attempts to limit his liabilities and mistook want of talent for lack of effort. Moreover, fans’ obsession with defense distorts its importance relative to offense.
Duncan’s offensive contributions were constantly being obscured by fans’ and writers’ noisome allegiance to antiquated stats. Whereas most thinking people are now aware (and have been for several years) that on-base percentage is the primary indicator of a player’s offensive value, St. Louisans regularly referred to Duncan’s less-than-impressive batting average rather than his quite-good OBP. To be sure, they weren’t helped by the enlightened traditional media, who pride themselves on telling us what to think. To wit: In the Post-Dispatch release detailing the trade, Duncan’s obituary contains nary a reference to his OBP, yet notes his BA three times. For the record, Duncan had a .348 OBP with the Cardinals, fourth-best on the club during that period. Which brings us to a final point: Duncan’s proclivity to strike out. Strikeouts undoubtedly make for ugly baseball, but they’re really secondary to whether a player creates runs. Case in point: For his career, Duncan has struck out 316 times; during that same time, Yadier Molina has struck out only 142 times. Yet Duncan created runs at a much higher rate: 5.70 per 27 outs to 3.69 RC/27.
The trade is not only a new opportunity for Duncan, but it is a chance for Cardinal fans to start afresh, too. With so many newcomers to the Cardinals commending the fans for their warm welcomes, it’s a shame that one of the team’s own never received the support that Cardinal fans are capable of. As Derrick Goold points out, Duncan had a severe home-road split disparity — for his career, his Gross-Production Average (GPA) at home was .252; on the road, .290. Duncan’s Cardinal tenure might’ve turned out differently had he not been booed so lustily. And to think, it was due to ignorance.
July 23rd, 2009 at 11:42 pm
Pip – You’re in the traditional-media bashing mode these days. Good stuff as always. Duncan’s OBP decency (or better) was discussed in the blog that I wrote Thursday. Thank you, sir.
B
July 24th, 2009 at 2:45 am
I still see Duncan’s upside as a 1-1.5 WAR 1B/:F, which the Cards weren’t getting at the current pace; he would have needed time at AAA either way. I think that Lugo’s league average wOBA and probably defensive accumen at 2B would give 1 win for the season over the pre hoc line-up. That one win might make a significant push into the playoffs, which would be quite valuable as far as revenue and prestige is concerned.
I liked Dunc’s eye, but it was only marginally better than replacement 1B/LF
July 24th, 2009 at 7:37 am
Straw men, much? I actually agree with Bernie on this one. I think most fans appreciated Duncan for what he was. LaRussa and others who want to make themselves feel like the “enlightened ones” pointed toward a vocal fringe to defend Duncan, when he needed no defending.
July 24th, 2009 at 8:54 am
You certainly deserve credit for providing a more complete view of the player, Bernie. Perhaps I should have added “some in the traditional media”… On a related note, though, the traditional media need to be able to defend themselves on the merits, rather than simply making ad hominem complaints that people are attacking them. Independent bloggers are often the answer to “Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?”
July 24th, 2009 at 9:18 am
[...] For every “THANK GOODNESS HE IS GONE” tweet, there is a counterpoint like the great post from Pip over at Fungoes. [...]
July 24th, 2009 at 9:43 am
I think you guys misread the fans on this one. It was more than a “lunatic fringe” that booed Duncan. If the Post’s own online poll is any indication, with more than 4000 votes, only 9% think that Boston got the better end of the deal (despite having to pay most of Lugo’s salary and the Cardinals not exactly needing a middle infielder).
July 24th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
[...] Post on Fungoes [...]