Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for July, 2009

Should Ankiel find his stroke at Memphis?

Tuesday, July 7th, 2009

[Ed. note: Pip is on vacation this week, so fellow SABRen Mark Stangl will be posting in his absence. Enjoy!]
It’s always hard to point out something that is not working after the Cards beat the Brewers 5-0 tonight and increased  their lead over the Brew Crew by two games in the NL Central but it might serve the team better if Rick Ankiel goes and visits Elvis and gets his timing back  in Memphis. His April was OK .264 BA 2 HR 11 RBI. But since he came back from the DL  May 24 his numbers are .206 BA 3 HR and 11 RBI. If he had 10-14 HR, the 52 strikeouts in 212 AB through tonight’s game would be easier to take. But he doesn’t! The rust hasn’t come off. With DeRosa due back before the All-Star game, Schumaker can be moved to left, Rasmus stays in Center and Ludwick in Right. Barden goes to  second.  With a team that has lacked consistency on offense , it’s worth a shot. My thoughts on why he didn’t go down after coming back. The possibility existed that he could find his power stroke up here. What Rick has found is a lot of strikeouts. Going down to AAA could get him to be cognizant of driving the ball and then the power will return.  Unless he hasn’t completely recovered from those injuries.

An unearned home run?

Friday, July 3rd, 2009

[Ed. note: Pip is on vacation this week, so fellow SABRen Mark Stangl will be posting in his absence. Enjoy!]
Immediately after the game Wednesday night, after Colby Rasmus took advantage of Pablo Sandoval’s error on on the foul pop to hit the walk off home run in the 10th inning, SABR member Bob Tiemann greeted me with the question, “Has there ever been a game that ended on a walk-off home run that was unearned?” I couldn’t remember, and he thought it could have been one of the few times. I do remember numerous chances of hitters making teams pay after “given a second life,” but never a walk-off dinger. If you know of any occurrences of an unearned walk-off home run, please comment.

A word from our supporter
Catch every home run in person and save on travel.

Which Cardinals are worth their salaries at the midway point?

Friday, July 3rd, 2009

The Colonel turned in his best strikeout-to-walk ratio of the season and helped the Cardinals split their series with the Giants. Since we’re now at the midway point in the season, and since Wellemeyer’s opponent tonight, Barry Zito, is one of the highest-paid players (and, we might add, most overpaid players), now seems a good time to review the Cardinal roster and see how well players are paying off (let’s hope they’re better than Zito). We’ll use salary as listed by USA Today and value as given by Fangraphs. First, the pitchers:
pitchers-value

The big and pleasant surprise here of course is Joel Pineiro. The man who couldn’t make the Puerto Rican WBC team has already exceeded the value of his contract by almost $4 million. Chris Carpenter, with an albatross of a contract, is actually living up to it (so far). And Adam Wainwright’s value is triple the amount his salary. Relievers Ryan Franklin and Trever Miller are ahead of the game, too. Wellemeyer and Lohse are the only major deals that are coming up short. Middle relievers Josh Kinney and Kyle McClellan are in the negative, though their salaries make them relatively small fish.

Now for the batters:
batters-value
Albert Pujols has — big surprise — already exceeded his contract total (he’s the most valuable hitter — literally — in baseball). The other huge assets are Yadier Molina, Brendan Ryan and Colby Rasmus, all of whom benefit from playing skilled positions (and, of course, playing them well). On the down side, the Cardinals have gotten nothing from Troy Glaus’s $12 million contract this year and are actually “in the red” on Khalil Greene. And as badly as they’ve played, the team’s two to-be free-agent outfielders, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick, are on pace to make good on their one-year deals.

Oh, and in case you’re wondering about Zito. He’s set to make $18.5 million in 2009. Prior to Thursday’s performance, he had earned value of $2.7. We’d say he’s got a ways to go.

Post-game notes: Cardinals 2, Giants 1

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009
  • We know that the team has been struggling at the dish lately, but sac bunting with your #2 hitter in the first inning is embarrassing.
  • If you’ve never paid attention to Pablo Sandoval’s approach to his at-bat, do yourself a favor and watch him. He writes something in the dirt with his bat on the perimeter of the batting circle as he approaches, then jumps out toward the pitcher with some more choreography. We love that he does most of his work outside of the batter’s box.
  • When Chris Duncan struck out with the bases loaded in the third, fans lustily booed him. Sorry, fans, but booing your own for giving an honest effort but failing is poor form. Stay home next time, or save your boos for lack of hustle — or Manny Ramirez.
  • Not sure why Bochy allowed Romo to pitch to Pujols in the eighth. He was playing with fire and could’ve easily lost the game then.
  • Yadier Molina reached on a fielder’s choice in the eighth, and what a poor choice it was by erstwhile Cardinal shortstop Edgar Renteria. With runners on first and second, two outs, Molina grounded slowly to Renteria. Tyler Greene, one of the Cardinals’ fastest players, had just entered the game to pinch run at first. Molina, one of the team’s slowest, was batting. With two outs and no one holding him on, Greene easily made it to second, which is where Renteria threw. The former Gold Glover needs to remember all these details. Which raises the question: At what point does a fielding decision become so egregious that it ceases to be a "fielder’s choice" and become an error?
  • Speaking of former Gold Glovers acting foolishly, Albert Pujols has made a bad habit of fielding throws in foul territory; he’s going to get himself hurt and/or fail to make a play because the ball hits a runner. Yes, Pujols makes some exciting plays, but he also makes some plays exciting.
  • Tony La Russa got "p0wned," as the kids say, by Bruce Bochy in the ninth. With the game tied, Wainwright was due to lead off against righty Sergio Romo. Rather than let him bat or at least pinch hit with righty Jarrett Hoffpauir, TLR summoned lefty Rick Ankiel. Sure enough, Bochy countered with southpaw Jeremy Affeldt, who promptly said "gg" to Ankiel on three pitches. TLR gave away an out for free in a crucial situation (and burned a hitter in the process).
  • But then we’re not sure why Bochy didn’t leave in Affeldt, who was carving up Cardinal batters, to pitch to Rasmus in the 10th. It probably cost him the game.
  • TLR deserves credit, though, for bringing in Franklin in the tie game (read: non-save situation).
  • As dominant as Tim Lincecum was Monday night, Adam Wainwright outpitched him with tonight’s performance. Lincecum had a Fielding-Independent Game Score (FIGS) of 76; Wainwright, with 36 batters faced and 12 strikeouts, threw an 80.
  • When a pitcher pitches nine innings with 12 Ks, can we please stop wasting time and space by noting how he didn’t get a decision? Just don’t mention it; it’s absolutely stupid.
  • No, Bernie, Ryan Franklin should not be an All-Star. It’s a quaint idea, but he’s not even among the top 10 best relief pitchers (let alone starters) in the league. Heck, the Giants’ Wilson and Affeldt are having better seasons.
  • It was a momentous night for sportswriters: P-D scribes Rick Hummel and Joe Strauss gave in to the peer pressure and officially began their Twitter careers.