Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for September, 2009

Magic-number 0: The only stat that really matters

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

With all of the fancy alphabet stats and player-quantification tools that we SABR geeks live and breathe, it is often salutary to simply drink in the joy of sheer accomplishment. After all, the goal of even the most sophicated stats is victory. Lest anyone confuse the means with the ends, we celebrate and honor the 2009 Cardinals for their NL Central title

Really, at some point, who cares what Joe Thurston’s WAR is? (It’s 0.3, by the way.) Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright’s xFIP (3.51 and 3.48, respectively) are subordinate. Even the club’s Pythagorean win-loss record (89-67) pales in comparison with the real deal: As their Baseball-Reference team page says, “90-66, 1st place in NL Central” — a magic number of zero. Champions.

In this age of playoff crapshoots, the Cardinals’ division championship is in some ways a more important accomplishment than winning the pennant or even the World Series. Having been borne out over the course of the long season, it is the proof — at least as far as it’s possible to prove — of their status as the best team in their division. No three-game first-round sweep at the hands of a wild-card team can take that away. Even a seven-game World Series win, as sweet as it would be, wouldn’t represent the same 162-game war from which the Cardinals emerged victorious.

So when all of the statistical analysis is written and done, what remains and matters is journeymen like Jason LaRue popping a home run to clinch the division — only his second circuit clout of the year — then popping champagne in the clubhouse, exclaiming to John Rooney, “This team is unfrickinbelievable!” For all Cardinal fans, those who have memorized the formula for the technical version of Runs Created and those who can’t even spell DIPS, enjoy the title. It’s what it’s all about.

“Cardinals and the Division Championship Series” survey

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

We created a “Cardinals and the Division Championship Series” survey. Please take a minute to fill it out. We’ll post results at the end of the regular season.

Click Here to take survey

Albert and friends for Sabermetric MVP

Thursday, September 24th, 2009

As we wait to see whether the idle Cardinals will pop some midnight bottles of champagne (the Cubs play in San Francisco starting at 9:15pm Central), let’s celebrate something else now: the contributing factors to their imminent division title.

This is the fourth year we’ve put together our Sabermetric MVP rankings, and, in the unending quest for improvement, we’ve tweaked the formula for ‘09. Intead of using Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB) divided by three, we’re using the superior (and more generally available) Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Thus, the formula is simpler than ever: MVP = WPA + WAR.

Albert Pujols is, of course, the perennial Sabermetric MVP candidate, but, as we intimated, the Cardinals have more than one valuable player this year. Here’s where things stand as of Sept. 24 in the NL:

Rk Name Team WPA WAR MVP
1 Albert Pujols Cardinals 7.57 8.3 15.87
2 Prince Fielder Brewers 7.43 5.9 13.33
3 Chase Utley Phillies 4.83 8.0 12.83
4 Tim Lincecum Giants 4.20 7.8 12.00
5 Hanley Ramirez Marlins 3.25 7.5 10.75
6 Chris Carpenter Cardinals 5.33 5.4 10.73
7 Cliff Lee Phillies 3.23 6.6 9.83
8 Ryan Howard Phillies 5.24 4.3 9.54
9 Adrian Gonzalez Padres 3.64 5.8 9.44
10 Javier Vazquez Braves 3.13 6.3 9.43
11 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 3.80 5.3 9.10
12 Joey Votto Reds 5.47 3.6 9.07
13 Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 2.30 6.6 8.90
14 Dan Haren Diamondbacks 3.13 5.7 8.83
15 Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 2.94 5.5 8.44
16 Derrek Lee Cubs 3.42 5.0 8.42
17 Matt Kemp Dodgers 3.01 5.4 8.41
17 Matt Holliday Cardinals 3.31 5.1 8.41
19 Josh Johnson Marlins 2.95 5.2 8.15
20 Pablo Sandoval Giants 3.91 4.2 8.11

As the National-League leader in both WPA and WAR, Pujols deserves to win the writers’ MVP again. The additionally exciting news for Cardinal fans is that three other Cardinals join Pujols in the top 20: their co-aces, Chris Carpenter (#6) and Adam Wainwright (#11), and Pujols’s co-slugger, Matt Holliday (#17, tied).

And for all of those American-League fans out there, here are the rankings for the Junior Circuit:

Rk Name Team WPA WAR MVP
1 Zack Greinke Royals 5.47 8.7 14.17
2 Joe Mauer Twins 3.63 7.7 11.33
3 Justin Verlander Tigers 4.07 7.0 11.07
4 Ben Zobrist Rays 3.31 7.4 10.71
5 Felix Hernandez Mariners 3.72 6.2 9.92
6 Mark Teixeira Yankees 3.92 5.1 9.02
7 Chone Figgins Angels 2.79 6.1 8.89
8 Evan Longoria Rays 1.98 6.9 8.88
9 Ichiro Suzuki Mariners 3.79 4.9 8.69
10 Roy Halladay Blue Jays 1.83 6.7 8.53
11 Franklin Gutierrez Mariners 3.25 5.0 8.25
12 Derek Jeter Yankees 1.50 6.7 8.20
13 CC Sabathia Yankees 2.26 5.9 8.16
14 Jon Lester Red Sox 2.00 6.1 8.10
15 Jason Bay Red Sox 4.57 3.5 8.07
16 Alex Rodriguez Yankees 3.65 3.9 7.55
17 Kevin Youkilis Red Sox 2.60 4.9 7.50
18 Scott Feldman Rangers 4.02 3.4 7.42
18 Victor Martinez Red Sox 3.02 4.4 7.42
20 Josh Beckett Red Sox 2.03 5.2 7.23

Whoa! As expected as Pujols was as the NL leader, the Royals’ Zack Greinke is a surprise at the top of the AL. Joe Mauer is the most valuable of the non-pitchers, well ahead of the Fire Joe Morgan favorite Derek Jeter. Speaking of Jeter, his Yankees hold an honor similar to the Cardinals: They have four players in the top 20 of their league. Their division-rival Red Sox, however, may not have the most wins in the division, but they have the most MVP candidates in our top 20, with five. Perhaps we’ll see them all play against each other this October.

Does it matter when the Cardinals clinch?

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

With their magic number at two, the Cardinals can clinch the NL Central tonight at Houston (the Cubs play the Brewers). Based on their clinching history, should fans want them to wrap things up tonight?

Let’s look at the team’s playoff history since the wild canard was introduced. Is there a correlation between the games remaining when the Cardinals clinch and how they do in the playoffs?

Year W-L% Title Clinch Date Games Left Playoff Result
2006 .516 Division 10/1/2006 0 Won WS (4-1)
2001 .574 Wild Card 10/4/2001 3 Lost LDS (3-2)
1996 .543 Division 9/24/1996 4 Lost NLCS (4-3)
2002 .599 Division 9/20/2002 9 Lost NLCS (4-1)
2009 .586 Division 9/23/2009? 9? ?
2000 .586 Division 9/20/2000 10 Lost NLCS (4-1)
2005 .617 Division 9/1/2005 14 Lost NLCS (4-2)
2004 .648 Division 9/18/2004 15 Lost WS (4-0)

It would appear that no such correlation exists; after all, the two times that the team played in the World Series are the most extreme cases of games remaining. The Cardinals won the series in 2006, after they clinched on the final day of the regular season. And they made it to series in 2004 (and lost to the Crimson Hosers) after coasting to the finish line with 15 games left. They’ve made it to the league championship after winning by a large margin (2000, 2005) and a small one (1996). So the playoffs continue to appear to be a crapshoot, at least insofar as clinching date is concerned.

Sabermetric Triple Crown within Pujols’s reach

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

Don’t look now, but Albert Pujols is on his way to winning the Sabermetric Triple Crown. If he finishes the season leading the league in OBP, Runs Created and Total Bases, he’ll be the first Senior Circuit player to do it since Todd Helton in 2000 and the first Cardinal since Stan Musial in 1949.

True, teams still have at least 11 games to go (and the Phillies have 14). But Pujols has opened up a comfortable lead on all his challengers:

Player OBP Player RC Player TB
Pujols .447 Pujols 159 Pujols 358
Johnson .421 Fielder 135 Fielder 321
Ramirez .416 Utley 130 Howard 318

Pujols should prevail in OBP. With an average of 4.4 plate appearances per game played, Pujols could go o-fer the rest of the season — 0 for 48 plate appearances (in 11 games) — and still have an OBP of .416. If in those 48 PAs, he reached base safely just three times, he would tie Nick Johnson’s .421 OBP.

To top Pujols in Runs Created, Prince Fielder would have to average two more runs created than Pujols each game. To put this into perspective, Fielder is averaging .9 RC per game. (he has 135 in 150 games played), so he would have to produce more than double his season per-game average just to tie if Pujols stopped playing today.

Total bases are a similar story. With Pujols’s lead of 37, Fielder would need to hit a triple (or the equivalent number of total bases) every game the rest of the way and Pujols not play another game.

It would be the 25th NL triple crown, of which an amazing 10 would be held by Cardinal players (Musial has three, Rogers Hornsby five and Crab Burkett one):

Year Lg Player Team OBP RC TB
1901 NL Jesse Burkett STL .440 132 306
1920 NL Rogers Hornsby STL .431 136 329
1921 NL Rogers Hornsby STL .458 167 378
1922 NL Rogers Hornsby STL .459 202 450
1924 NL Rogers Hornsby STL .507 183 373
1925 NL Rogers Hornsby STL .489 185 381
1943 NL Stan Musial STL .425 147 347
1948 NL Stan Musial STL .450 192 429
1949 NL Stan Musial STL .438 167 382

Even if TLR rests Pujols a couple of times after the Cardinals clinch, Pujols should be in good shape to win. We’ll be the first to salute him on a triply superlative season.