With Gold-Glove-worthy shortstop Brendan Ryan missing the last couple of games (the latter of which because of a hand injury), the Cardinals’ defense — and, therefore, its pitchers — have suffered. As the playoffs near, how can Tony La Russa give his pitchers the best chance to succeed?

We decided to use Ultimate Zone Rating to find out the most sure-handed arrangement of players. Let’s start with the most-likely playoff lineup (career UZR/150, min. 175 innings at the position):

Pretty good, despite a couple of weaknesses in the infield (although, to be sure, DeRosa has played better at third this year — -2.8 — than his career numbers indicate). Granted, the advantage in lumber helps offset the loss with leather.

Now depending on which pitcher is toeing the slab– a groundball pitcher like Joel Pineiro, for instance — TLR may prefer more proficiency in the infield. First, let’s check on the pitchers who rely most heavily on their infielders — those with the highest groundball rates:

So when these pitchers are in, what is the best combo to have on the infield without regard to the outfield?

Since Joe Thurston and Troy Glaus aren’t likely to start over Cinco Cinco and DeRosa, respectively, even if Joe Pine is pitching (and when Glaus is healthy), this merely reflects a possible late-inning defensive sub situation.

For the following flyball pitchers …

… how about the best outfield?

This is the bigger curiosity, since the Cardinal pitchers who tend to allow more fly balls are probably going to be relieving in the playoffs, thereby making a stronger case for defensive subbing. A couple of problems mitigate against Ankiel and DeRosa playing in the corners, though: First, Ankiel isn’t that much of an upgrade at left field (his power arm is also offset by his lack of discretion in using it) over Holliday, and certainly the offensive gap is untenable, even with a 90%+ win expectancy. And DeRosa, who may be the club’s best rightfielder, has only played 68 innings there this season, and none as a Cardinal.

That leaves the best overall configuration, without regard for offensive skill or likelihood of actually playing these positions:

That’s a pretty good hands team, but, as we noted, not bloody likely to appear on the field together anytime soon. Perhaps it’s beter to think of them as the fielding-save team, that is, the bunch you want on the field in the ninth inning. Hopefully, of course, the Cardinals will score enough runs to continue to keep the topic merely academic. But if they expect their talented pitching staff to succeed, defense is going to be an important component (probably more than people realize) and TLR will need to pay as much attention to pinch-fielding opportunities as to pinch-hitting ones.

This entry was posted by Pip on Friday, September 18th, 2009 at 9:18 am and is filed under analysis. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.