Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Albert and friends for Sabermetric MVP

As we wait to see whether the idle Cardinals will pop some midnight bottles of champagne (the Cubs play in San Francisco starting at 9:15pm Central), let’s celebrate something else now: the contributing factors to their imminent division title.

This is the fourth year we’ve put together our Sabermetric MVP rankings, and, in the unending quest for improvement, we’ve tweaked the formula for ‘09. Intead of using Win Shares Above Bench (WSAB) divided by three, we’re using the superior (and more generally available) Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Thus, the formula is simpler than ever: MVP = WPA + WAR.

Albert Pujols is, of course, the perennial Sabermetric MVP candidate, but, as we intimated, the Cardinals have more than one valuable player this year. Here’s where things stand as of Sept. 24 in the NL:

Rk Name Team WPA WAR MVP
1 Albert Pujols Cardinals 7.57 8.3 15.87
2 Prince Fielder Brewers 7.43 5.9 13.33
3 Chase Utley Phillies 4.83 8.0 12.83
4 Tim Lincecum Giants 4.20 7.8 12.00
5 Hanley Ramirez Marlins 3.25 7.5 10.75
6 Chris Carpenter Cardinals 5.33 5.4 10.73
7 Cliff Lee Phillies 3.23 6.6 9.83
8 Ryan Howard Phillies 5.24 4.3 9.54
9 Adrian Gonzalez Padres 3.64 5.8 9.44
10 Javier Vazquez Braves 3.13 6.3 9.43
11 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 3.80 5.3 9.10
12 Joey Votto Reds 5.47 3.6 9.07
13 Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 2.30 6.6 8.90
14 Dan Haren Diamondbacks 3.13 5.7 8.83
15 Ubaldo Jimenez Rockies 2.94 5.5 8.44
16 Derrek Lee Cubs 3.42 5.0 8.42
17 Matt Kemp Dodgers 3.01 5.4 8.41
17 Matt Holliday Cardinals 3.31 5.1 8.41
19 Josh Johnson Marlins 2.95 5.2 8.15
20 Pablo Sandoval Giants 3.91 4.2 8.11

As the National-League leader in both WPA and WAR, Pujols deserves to win the writers’ MVP again. The additionally exciting news for Cardinal fans is that three other Cardinals join Pujols in the top 20: their co-aces, Chris Carpenter (#6) and Adam Wainwright (#11), and Pujols’s co-slugger, Matt Holliday (#17, tied).

And for all of those American-League fans out there, here are the rankings for the Junior Circuit:

Rk Name Team WPA WAR MVP
1 Zack Greinke Royals 5.47 8.7 14.17
2 Joe Mauer Twins 3.63 7.7 11.33
3 Justin Verlander Tigers 4.07 7.0 11.07
4 Ben Zobrist Rays 3.31 7.4 10.71
5 Felix Hernandez Mariners 3.72 6.2 9.92
6 Mark Teixeira Yankees 3.92 5.1 9.02
7 Chone Figgins Angels 2.79 6.1 8.89
8 Evan Longoria Rays 1.98 6.9 8.88
9 Ichiro Suzuki Mariners 3.79 4.9 8.69
10 Roy Halladay Blue Jays 1.83 6.7 8.53
11 Franklin Gutierrez Mariners 3.25 5.0 8.25
12 Derek Jeter Yankees 1.50 6.7 8.20
13 CC Sabathia Yankees 2.26 5.9 8.16
14 Jon Lester Red Sox 2.00 6.1 8.10
15 Jason Bay Red Sox 4.57 3.5 8.07
16 Alex Rodriguez Yankees 3.65 3.9 7.55
17 Kevin Youkilis Red Sox 2.60 4.9 7.50
18 Scott Feldman Rangers 4.02 3.4 7.42
18 Victor Martinez Red Sox 3.02 4.4 7.42
20 Josh Beckett Red Sox 2.03 5.2 7.23

Whoa! As expected as Pujols was as the NL leader, the Royals’ Zack Greinke is a surprise at the top of the AL. Joe Mauer is the most valuable of the non-pitchers, well ahead of the Fire Joe Morgan favorite Derek Jeter. Speaking of Jeter, his Yankees hold an honor similar to the Cardinals: They have four players in the top 20 of their league. Their division-rival Red Sox, however, may not have the most wins in the division, but they have the most MVP candidates in our top 20, with five. Perhaps we’ll see them all play against each other this October.

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