• At the outset of the game, we questioned why Julio Lugo, who had a .250 OBP and a .222 GPA v. The Lil in 17 PAs, was leading off. He worked a 12-pitch at-bat in his first appearance, drawing cheers for seven foul balls and ripped a single in his second time up. He was on his way to another long at-bat in the sixth, fouling off four more pitches, when Lilly plunked him, as if to be done with the ordeal. Lugo fouled off 11 of the 21 pitches Lilly threw. Anyway, we’re happy to be proven wrong.
• The official scorer ruled Mark DeRosa’s run-scoring, hard-hit grounder down third-base line a triple, but we beg to differ. Yes, it hit the angled part of the outfield wall that connects to the side wall, but that’s a play that does not require extra-ordinary effort. It would’ve been a double with an error on leftfielder Bobby Scales. And no RBI, since Ludwick was going to stop at third until Jose Oquendo saw the ball get by Scales. Ludwick’s run would still have been earned, since he would’ve scored on the ensuing groundout, but DeRosa’s wouldn’t have. (Full disclosure: We have Lilly on a fantasy-league team.)
• The Cubs are paying Aaron Miles $2.2 million to be their designated bunter.
• From an opposing fan’s point of view, the Cub we most fear is Derrek Lee; we would just as soon Cardinal pitchers walk him every plate appearance. Cub we least fear? Aaron Heilman. With all due respect, he’s the kind of pitcher that you get excited about seeing in the bullpen warming. We wonder whether Holliday’s mini-outburst at the first-pitch called strike had the duel effect of firing himself up and rattling Heilman, who threw three consecutive balls afterward, and then the last pitch of the game.
• Speaking of Holliday, he just hits the ball differently from other players. His line drives zoom farther, hit walls harder and fly out of the park more unexpectedly. His hits are the batting equivalent of pitchers who throw "heavy" balls.
• Pitted agaist Mike Matheny and Tom Pagnozzi, Ted Simmons won’t the text-in vote for Cardinals’ best catcher. The contest first flashed on the scoreboard during a Molina at-bat, which caused us to wonder why Molina wasn’t nominated. For that matter, what about Tim McCarver, Walker Cooper or Duke Bresnahan?!
• Kyle McClellan turned in perhaps the most dominant relief performance of the year; he struck out 4 of 7 batters faced and walked one. That one walk was to Aramis Ramirez, but only after a satisfying sequence of pitches. After Ramirez belted an inside fastball 300+ feet just foul, K-Mac came high and tight with another 92-mph heater. Ramirez was a bit miffed, and was set up perfectly for McClellan’s next pitch, a 76-mph curveball below the strike zone that Ramirez fouled off on a weak swing. It’s too bad McClellan ultimately lost him after such a fun start to the at-bat.
• Yadier Molina went into Tony Pena mode in the ninth inning as Ryan Franklin faced pinch hitter Jake Fox. Molina stuck his right leg out straight and nearly sat on the ground to emphasize a low zone. Franklin delivered:
  
• Speaking of Franklin, kudos to TLR for going to him in the tie game. Hopefully the win will positively reinforce the wise strategy. Conversely, Lou Pineilla paid dearly for turning to Aaron Heilman, a lesser light in the Cubs bullpen. He left his best reliever (which, granted, isn’t saying much for the Cubs this year), Carlos Marmol, on the bench. Fat lot of good it did him.At least he’s rested for his next Save opportunity!

With Gold-Glove-worthy shortstop Brendan Ryan missing the last couple of games (the latter of which because of a hand injury), the Cardinals’ defense — and, therefore, its pitchers — have suffered. As the playoffs near, how can Tony La Russa give his pitchers the best chance to succeed?

We decided to use Ultimate Zone Rating to find out the most sure-handed arrangement of players. Let’s start with the most-likely playoff lineup (career UZR/150, min. 175 innings at the position):

Pretty good, despite a couple of weaknesses in the infield (although, to be sure, DeRosa has played better at third this year — -2.8 — than his career numbers indicate). Granted, the advantage in lumber helps offset the loss with leather.

Now depending on which pitcher is toeing the slab– a groundball pitcher like Joel Pineiro, for instance — TLR may prefer more proficiency in the infield. First, let’s check on the pitchers who rely most heavily on their infielders — those with the highest groundball rates:

So when these pitchers are in, what is the best combo to have on the infield without regard to the outfield?

Since Joe Thurston and Troy Glaus aren’t likely to start over Cinco Cinco and DeRosa, respectively, even if Joe Pine is pitching (and when Glaus is healthy), this merely reflects a possible late-inning defensive sub situation.

For the following flyball pitchers …

… how about the best outfield?

This is the bigger curiosity, since the Cardinal pitchers who tend to allow more fly balls are probably going to be relieving in the playoffs, thereby making a stronger case for defensive subbing. A couple of problems mitigate against Ankiel and DeRosa playing in the corners, though: First, Ankiel isn’t that much of an upgrade at left field (his power arm is also offset by his lack of discretion in using it) over Holliday, and certainly the offensive gap is untenable, even with a 90%+ win expectancy. And DeRosa, who may be the club’s best rightfielder, has only played 68 innings there this season, and none as a Cardinal.

That leaves the best overall configuration, without regard for offensive skill or likelihood of actually playing these positions:

That’s a pretty good hands team, but, as we noted, not bloody likely to appear on the field together anytime soon. Perhaps it’s beter to think of them as the fielding-save team, that is, the bunch you want on the field in the ninth inning. Hopefully, of course, the Cardinals will score enough runs to continue to keep the topic merely academic. But if they expect their talented pitching staff to succeed, defense is going to be an important component (probably more than people realize) and TLR will need to pay as much attention to pinch-fielding opportunities as to pinch-hitting ones.

Some observations in the wake of the Cardinals’ rollicking 11-6 win Monday night:

• We’re going to write some heresy, so hold the tomatoes: Todd Wellemeyer didn’t pitch that badly. He induced a GB-FB ratio of 1.40, well above his season (0.87) and career (0.99) rates. He struck out three (two of which were of Hanley Ramirez) and walked only one. Whereas his traditional ERA for the game was 13.5, his Fielding-Independent Pitching was 5.70. Obviously not great, but worth considering the importance of defense. Which brings us to our next point…
• The difference one fielder can make is amazing. Julio Lugo has held his own at shortstop, but he (-34.2 UZR/150) simply doesn’t compare with the Flyin’ Irishman (14.4 UZR/150). With the Colonel returning to the bump, TLR might’ve waited a day to give Ryan the day off — it might’ve made Wellemeyer’s night more placable. The Marlins struck a couple of hard-hit grounders near shortstop that Lugo couldn’t reach but that Ryan may have. If Ryan turns even one of those into an out, Wellemeyer pitches under less duress and may get out of an inning with less damage. Wellemeyer should have the benefit of pitching in front of the same defense as Chris Carpenter et al. When he doesn’t, it’s a reminder of the Jamesian wisdom that "much of what we perceive as pitching is in fact defense."
• Thus, we were angered and embarrassed when "the best fans in baseball" responded to Nick Johnson’s line-drive home run — to the shortest part of the park, no less — with a chorus of boos. Granted, society in general is becoming increasingly boorish, but this is unacceptable. Fans had no reason to believe that Wellemeyer wasn’t giving his all; those fans should be ashamed of themselves. They don’t deserve this team or the playoffs they’ll enjoy.
• With 22 home runs, Cody Ross has one fewer home run than Matt Holliday.
• Fun to see Blake Hawksworth baffling hitters by inducing some awkward swinging strikes.
• Rather than let Trever Miller take his first plate appearance since 1999, with runners on first and second and a one-run lead in the eighth TLR pinch hit with the starting pitcher of Game 2 of the NLDS, Adam Wainwright. So perhaps Miller isn’t much of a bunter. Fair enough. But TLR needlessly exposed his co-ace to the wild flamethrower Matt Lindstrom (think: Florida’s version of Jason Motte). To make matters worse, the Cardinals attempted a double-steal/hit-and-run; Brendan Ryan was caught at third and TLR replaced Wainwright mid-at-bat with Joe Thurston, who inherited a 1-2 count. Thurston struck out — which was charged to Waino based on Rule 10.15b:

  When a batter leaves the game with two strikes against him, and the substitute batter completes a strikeout, the official scorer shall charge the strikeout and the time at bat to the first batter. If the substitute batter completes the turn at bat in any other manner, including a base on balls, the official scorer shall score the action as having been that of the substitute batter.

  TLR should’ve quit while he was behind.

• The game featured another uncommon ruling, that of Rule 10.17, which provides for the winning pitcher when a starter doesn’t complete four innings:

  … the official scorer shall credit as the winning pitcher the relief pitcher, if there is only one relief pitcher, or the relief pitcher who, in the official scorer’s judgment was the most effective, if there is more than one relief pitcher.

  The OS had several choices, since TLR nearly emptied his bullpen, but ultimately went with Blake Hawksworth. With two strikeouts and a walk in an inning and a third, Hawk was a perfectly reasonable choice. But Kyle McClellan added more win probability (+.194 to Hawksworth’s +.067) and had an extra strikeout. Not that we’re that concerned about the damnable Win, anyway.

• Colby Rasmus had six total bases, including the coup de grace home run in the eighth. With the Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen scuffling a bit lately, and the Rockies’ Dexter Fowler on the shelf, Rasmus is making a late bid for Rookie of the Year, though he’s still 18 Runs Created from Marlin opponent Chris Coghlan (who made a stunning catch Monday). Still, Rasmus now leads rookies in WAR, with 2.6. Here’s hoping he sees enough playing time to control his own chances.
• Speaking of Rasmus, his infield hit in the seventh evidenced his speed. He hit a routine if a bit slow grounder to shortstop Hanley Ramirez, who either didn’t realize who was running or simply had too much faith in his arm. The throw actually might’ve beaten Rasmus, but because the umpire ruled that it did not, it’s hard to see how the play was not an error on Han-Ram. It didn’t look like an error — no bobble or bad throw — but Rasmus isn’t that fast. At any rate, credit Rasmus for hustling like a champ.
• Albert Pujols ran through Jose Oquendo’s stop sign at third and scored in the first. Sure, he made it, but why does he think he’s above the team?
• The game featured two starting right fielders who bat right but throw left (Cody Ross and Ryan Ludwick). Where have you gone, Mark Carreon?
• Mark DeRosa’s at-bat music — Bon Jovi’s "You give love a bad name" — doesn’t work. He went 1-for-5 to the tune Monday night. On the other hand, he reached twice on errors, so perhaps it’s so bad that it’s having an effect — on the opposition.

Chris Carpenter’s last outing and front-runner Tim Lincecum’s missed start have combined to narrow the gap between the two in the minds of Cy Young voters and wannavoters. Carpenter, of course, won the award in 2005 — how does his current campaign compare with that one by Fielding-Independent Game Scores?

Carpenter hasn’t made as many starts this season (and won’t reach the 33 he did in 2005), but the ones he has made have been of similar quality. His 2009 starts include one lower low (43) than in 2005 (47), but his best (89) is nearly as stellar as it was four years ago (91). More importantly, his average FIGS in 2009 — 70.0 — is nearly the spitting image of his average in 2005 (70.1). If Carp can avoid tailing off as he did in 2005 (see those last four starts on the graph), he may yet take back his Cy Young crown from Lincecum.

Brewer fans witnessed no gaudy celebrations at home plate Monday. Indeed, they barely saw one at first base, as the ghost of Chris Carpenter Past visited Miller Park with a one-hit shutout.

It was vintage Carpenter, who struck out 10 and walked only two en route to the Cardinals’ 3-0 win. The complete game was almost enough to legitimize a pitching "win" in our book. Our only complaint is that Carpenter didn’t stick one in Prince Fielder’s ear during his first plate appearance.

Carpenter’s haunting inspired us to revisit our FIGS formula once again and figure out the best starting-pitching performances of the dwindling season. The tweak we’ve made this time is an improvement of both simplicity and substance: Instead of multiplying by Batters Faced/27, we’re now simply adding Batters Faced. We’ve also reduced the "base" number from 46 to 40, so the formula is now as follows:

FIGS = 40+BF+2*SO-3*BB-13*HR

So, as of Game 139, the top 20 starts by Cardinal pitchers:

Carp’s Labor Day labor is fifth-best so far, slotting in just behind another of his and Adam Wainwright’s performances at Miller Park. It’s too bad the Brewers won’t be in the playoffs this year, as four of the Cardinals’ top 10 starts have come against them.

So how do the Cardinals’ twin aces compare with the rest of the league? Best games in the NL so far:

Since it’s September and Carp’s outing is relevant not only to his team’s success but to his personal accolades, we’ll allow ourself to comment on the Cy Young contest. If FIGS is any indication — and we have no reason to think it is — let’s check out the average FIGS scores for the favorites, plus a few selected others:

As expected, Tim Lincecum is the class of NL pitchers. Not that Carpenter hasn’t pitched amazingly — we’ll have to see how his average FIGS in 2009 compares with previous years in his career. The big surprise is that Pineiro’s average game started is better than Waino’s, despite Wainwright having so many of the team’s best games. Pineiro has simply been more consistent (though you wouldn’t know it by looking at his FLAKE factor,.253, which is actually higher than Wainwright’s, .236, since it is based on actual, rather than fielding-independent runs allowed). Pineiro may not be the Cardinals’ second-best pitcher, but he appears to be their second-most consistently good one. And that bodes well for the team, especially if they do face Lincecum and the Giants in the first round of the playoffs. This year, with only one day off between games 1 and 4, the Division Series will actually put a premium on rotation depth, requiring as it will four starters.