Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Archive for October, 2009

Best World Series FIGS: Where does Lee rank?

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

Inspired by Cliff Lee’s masterpiece in Game 1 of the World Series last night, we decided to see where the outing ranked among the great pitching performances of the Fall Classic. We tweaked* the formula for Fielding Independent Game Score, so here’s where Lee falls:

Rk Player Date G Tm Opp IP BF BB SO HR FIGS
1 Bob Gibson 10/02/68 1 STL DET 9 32 1 17 0 86
2 Ed Walsh 10/11/06 3 CHW @CHC 9 30 1 12 0 78
3 Randy Johnson 10/28/01 2 ARI NYY 9 30 1 11 0 76
4 Cliff Lee 10/28/09 1 PHI @NYY 9 32 0 10 0 75
4 Sandy Koufax 10/11/65 5 LAD MIN 9 29 1 10 0 75
6 Howard Ehmke 10/08/29 1 PHA @CHC 9 36 1 13 0 74
6 Bill Dinneen 10/02/03 2 BOS PIT 9 29 2 11 0 74
6 Roger Clemens 10/22/00 2 NYY NYM 8 28 0 9 0 74
6 Don Larsen 10/08/56 5 NYY BRO 9 27 0 7 0 74
10 Tom Seaver 10/16/73 3 NYM OAK 8 32 1 12 0 73
10 Pete Alexander 10/03/26 2 STL @NYY 9 31 1 10 0 73
10 Rube Foster 10/09/15 2 BOS @PHI 9 30 0 8 0 73
13 Eddie Plank 10/16/11 2 PHA NYG 9 31 0 8 0 72
14 Deacon Phillippe 10/01/03 1 PIT @BOS 9 36 0 10 0 71
14 Hod Eller 10/06/19 5 CIN @CHW 9 31 1 9 0 71
14 Monte Pearson 10/05/39 2 NYY CIN 9 29 1 8 0 71
17 Blue Moon Odom 10/18/72 3 OAK CIN 7 27 2 11 0 70
17 Don Drysdale 10/05/63 3 LAD NYY 9 32 1 9 0 70
17 George Earnshaw 10/06/31 4 PHA STL 9 30 1 8 0 70
17 Chris Carpenter 10/24/06 3 STL DET 8 26 0 6 0 70
21 Mort Cooper 10/08/44 5 STL @SLB 9 36 2 12 0 69
21 Josh Beckett 10/24/07 1 BOS COL 7 27 1 9 0 69
21 Brandon Backe 10/26/05 4 HOU CHW 7 26 0 7 0 69
21 Frank Viola 10/25/87 7 MIN STL 8 29 0 7 0 69
21 Mike Boddicker 10/12/83 2 BAL PHI 9 30 0 6 0 69

According to pitching-independent stats, Lee’s performance ties Sandy Koufax’s 10-strikeout game in 1965 for fourth-best all-time — better even than Don Larsen’s perfecto. Talk about a double-whammy for Yankee fans.


*FIGS = 60+2*SO-3*BB-13*HR+Outs-BF. Kerry Wood’s 20-strikeout game, considered by many to be the most dominant performance of all-time, scores a 98. We’d also like to note that the great Carl Erskine’s record-setting 14-strikeout game in the 1953 series barely missed the top 20 above, with a 68 FIGS.

UCB Roundtable: One move you’d like to see this offseason?

Thursday, October 29th, 2009

[For the last few days, we've been participating in the United Cardinal Bloggers fall roundtable discussion, in which a member blogger poses a question to the group each day. Today's question comes from Daniel of C70 at the Bat.]

What is one move you’d like to see Mozeliak do during this offseason? Could be a trade, could be a free agent signing.

In his dispatch about the Braves’ imminent re-signing of Tim Hudson, Ken Rosenthal noted that Atlanta may be interested in jettisoning one of its higher-paid starters, such as Javier Vazquez. Although Vazquez is under contract only for 2010, his salary, while not cheap ($11.5 million), represents a likely bargain: the league’s xFIP leader produced a value of $29.5 million in 2009 with 6.6 WAR. If the Braves are primarily looking to dump salary, the Cardinals may not have to give up as much in trade as would otherwise make trading for a 33-year-old soon-to-be-free-agent an unwise strategy. Also: If the team did acquire Vazquez but didn’t get him to return in 2011, they’d almost certainly receive draft picks.

On Monday’s UCB radio show, Bill DeWitt III noted that the team would spend the chunk of payroll putatively allocated for Matt Holliday somewhere else if he doesn’t sign. $11.5 and some low-level prospects for Vazquez might actually be a better value than Holliday, who’ll command at least $15 million next year. The Braves aren’t stupid, though, so it may take more than picking up the tab on Vazquez.

UCB Roundtable: How big will Big Mac media circus be?

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

[For the last few days, we've been participating in the United Cardinal Bloggers fall roundtable discussion, in which a member blogger poses a question to the group each day. Today's question comes from Josh of Pitchers Hit Eighth.]

How much of a circus is it going to be with Big Mac in the fold for the 2010 campaign?

Although TLR and the Cardinals deserve every bit of distraction that McGwire brings, the distraction may not be as intense as it should be because of the dynamics of the establishment media. While some intrepid reporters may press the issue, many will not, simply because they require ongoing access and patronage of people like La Russa and the players, many of whom will likely stand in lockstep solidarity with McGwire. Furthermore, other than the desire to get a scoop, many of those covering the game are usually not motivated by a cause, per se; they are, after all, in large part the ones who created the monster and perpetuate the problem through a kind of moral populism.

On the other hand, even if the media crush is less-than-warranted, given the relative haste of the decision — according to TLR, McGwire agreed less than a week after first being asked — it would not be surprising if McGwire isn’t the opening-day hitting coach, as Daniel noted. Questions as to the history of his own success as a player are certainly on the table now that he has been hired in an official capacity to instruct players on hitting, and surely some will ask difficult questions, even if obliquely, that may make McGwire question whether it is all worth it.

First among the questions that people should pose are follow-ups to McGwire’s proclamations during his congressional committee appearance. Here’s a starter list:

  • You stated that "I will use whatever influence and popularity I have to discourage young athletes from taking any drug that is not recommended by a doctor." What have you done in the last four years to make good on that pledge?
  • You stated that "I am directing my foundation to concentrate its efforts to educate children regarding the dangers of performance enhancing drugs." What has your foundation done in the last four years to make good on that pledge?
  • You stated that "I am also offering to be a spokesman for Major League Baseball and the Players Association to convince young athletes to avoid dangerous drugs of all sorts." What have you done, and why haven’t you been more visible?
  • Now that you have a job in major-league baseball as a coach, is it fair to ask you to go on the record about whether you used steroids as a player? If not, why not?
  • Did you use steroids and/or other PEDs as a player? If so, which and when?

To be clear, this isn’t about whether McGwire used PEDs. It’s about hypocrisy, integrity and respect for fans, issuing from individuals, a team and a major sports organization and corporation. Either the team and La Russa are oblivious to the schism that McGwire represents, in which case they are truly out of touch, or they are banking on fans not caring that much, in which case they hold fans with the same kind of contempt displayed by players such as Rick Ankiel when they offer condescending explanations about their own PED use. In any case, they have clearly decided that this hire is worth it. It’ll be up to those who care about integrity to press them on it.

UCB Roundtable: Most interesting stat of the season?

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

[For the last few days, we've been participating in the United Cardinal Bloggers fall roundtable discussion, in which a member blogger poses a question to the group each day. Today's question comes from yours truly.]

What was the most amazing, misleading, bizarre or otherwise interesting stat (team or individual player), of the Cardinals’ 2009 season, and why?

For me, I think it had to be Albert Pujols’s results with the bases loaded. 10-17, 5 HR, 35 RBI. And that’s including a late-season slump after he started off 7-7 with (I believe) 4 home runs. It got to be a disappointment when he’d hit a sac fly in those situations!

– Daniel, C70 at the Bat

The most misleading (and bizarre) basic stat would be our leader and 3rd place finisher in stolen bases last year. Albert Pujols leading the team with 16 stolen bases (80% rate) and Yadier Molina’s 3rd place finish (with 9, 75%) would lead you to believe they are fast runners. In actuality, they are probably among the slowest players on the team.

– Michael, Whiteyball

I think without a doubt the most interesting stat to come about this year was the 192.2 IP from Chris Carpenter. His contributions surpassed I think even the most optimistic of projections, and our success was due in large part to him. The 5.6 WAR he accumulated was his best since 2005.

– Kevin, Whiteyball

Joel Pineiro’s walks allowed stat fascinated me all season. Pineiro only allowed 27 walks in 214 innings pitched – something that’s now been achieved only eight times in the expansion era (1961-present). Joel was on pace for a truly historic season in walks allowed until running across a reappearance of “Bad Joel” in September and October, allowing 9 walks in 43.1 IP. You would think he’d manage better than 15-12 with the way he pitched most of the season. Just another black mark against counting wins and losses, eh Pip?

– Nick, Pitchers Hit Eighth

Just how low the Cardinals team wOBA was in 2009 surprised me, even after the Holliday trade. For the season they ranked 18th in MLB in wOBA (.325). They had a .323 wOBA in July (which does include about a week of Holliday), and a .328 in August when they were smoking hot – improvement with Holliday in the mix, but somehow I thought their on base average would have shown more of a jump. There best month was March/April (.359). Getting guys on base consistently is an area they need to improve on for 2010.

– Mike, Stan Musial’s Stance

Albert Pujols
Season: 115 BB
Before Holliday: 75 BB

Season: 44 IBB
Before Holliday: 34 IBB

Adrian Gonzalez
Season: 119 BB and 22 IBB

With only 62% of your BB’s due to plate discipline, it looks like Pujols was indeed pressing. The arrival of Holliday should have enabled Pujols to be more selective, but it should have also meant that Pujols would have seen better pitches. Thus, his IBB should decline, which it did, and his BB should slightly decline, which it did. No surprises there. But, based on "getting better pitches to hit:"

Pujols OBP
Before All-Star Game: .456
After All-Star Game: .427

As far as Pujols’ offensive stats are concerned, it doesn’t look like the addition of Holliday did much. What am I missing here?

– CJ, The Cardinal Virtue

So what stats did we find compelling? In addition to those of our sagacious fellow scribes, here are a few that we thought good, bad and ugly:

  • 3.45, 3.46, 3.76: xFIP for Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Joel Pineiro, respectively, giving the Cardinals three starters in the league’s top 11.
  • .450/.711/.380 and .433/.586/.341: Albert Pujols’s OBP/SLG/GPA numbers before and after the Matt Holliday trade. There’s little to no evidence to believe that Holliday provided any significant level of "protection" for Pujols specifically in 2009. Pujols’s performance declined after the trade.
  • 15.6%: Pujols’s line-drive percentage, the lowest since 2002 (when data began) and possibly his career.
  • 269: Rick Ankiel’s lifetime strikeouts, both as a batter and as a pitcher. If he leaves for greener pastures this winter, it’ll be a fun triva answer for years to come.
  • 27.2 %: Leadoff man Skip Schumaker’s O-Swing% (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone), 25th in the league.
  • 73.8 %: Schumaker’s O-Contact% (percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone), ninth in the league.
  • 10.8: Brendan Ryan’s UZR/150, best among NL shortstops. All he needed was a little playing time.
  • 70: Games in which Trever Miller pitched, despite a preseason physical that revealed damage to the labrum in his left shoulder, casting doubt on how much he’d be able to pitch in 2009. He posted the third-best FIP of his career (3.37) in the process.
  • $11 million: Surplus value over Chris Carpenter’s 2009 salary. Who knew that the Cardinals would get any surplus value on this albatross of a contract, let alone $11 million?
  • 28.5: Average age of Cardinal batters, the lowest of Tony La Russa’s tenure with the club.
  • 3,343,252: Attendance at Busch Stadium. Fan turnout was greater than anticipated and was widely credited with giving the team the ability to take on higher-priced contracts, like Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday, in trades.

2009 NLCS win-probability added

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Total win-probability added for players in the 2009 National League Championship Series (data from Fangraphs).

2009-NLCS-WPA-by-player

Here’s a game-by-game look:

Player Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4 Game 5 Total
Howard .154 .156 .155 .098 .025 .588
Rollins -.051 -.142 .016 .743 -.019 .547
Ruiz .310 .060 .028 .100 -.018 .480
Martinez .418 .418
Ethier .185 .181 -.017 -.106 .056 .299
Kuo .048 .046 .200 -.006 .288
Durbin .078 .036 .000 .094 .208
Thome .054 .150 .204
Loney .202 -.071 -.050 .069 .045 .195
Belliard .045 .104 -.019 .048 .002 .180
Madson -.030 .121 .057 .030 .178
Martin .048 .173 -.009 .049 -.094 .167
Lee .145 .145
Lidge .078 .043 .003 .124
Victorino -.066 -.114 .045 .170 .086 .121
Belisario .049 .000 .065 -.003 .111
Stairs .100 .000 .100
Troncoso .010 .001 .021 .032
Werth -.008 -.110 .074 -.212 .275 .019
Billingsley .007 .007
Hudson -.033 -.001 -.018 .055 .003
Bruntlett .000
Loretta .000 -.002 -.002
Elbert -.026 -.026
Cairo -.022 -.006 -.028
Park .241 -.323 .060 -.008 -.030
Ibanez .187 -.037 -.010 -.233 .059 -.034
Utley -.070 -.058 .044 .070 -.024 -.038
Pierre -.058 -.006 -.064
Feliz .004 -.052 .004 -.087 .057 -.074
Francisco -.006 -.046 -.025 -.077
Ramirez -.026 -.104 .041 .020 -.036 -.105
Bastardo -.139 -.139
Eyre -.150 .000 -.150
Happ .076 -.258 .021 -.161
Dobbs -.168 -.168
Kemp .006 -.248 -.043 .116 -.015 -.184
Sherrill -.201 .023 -.026 -.204
Blanton -.215 -.215
Padilla .152 -.371 -.219
Wolf -.220 -.220
Hamels -.237 -.075 -.312
Kuroda -.334 -.334
Blake -.324 .066 -.018 -.020 -.071 -.367
Furcal -.172 -.097 -.033 -.065 -.013 -.380
Kershaw -.348 -.035 -.383
Broxton .014 .148 -.663 -.501

Howard was a deserving, if commonsense, pick for series MVP.