How much of the payroll pie would Holliday and Pujols take up?
The early offseason questions for the Cardinals concern whether and for how much they’ll be able to sign Matt Holliday and whether and for how much they’ll extend the contract of Albert Pujols. Holliday is positioned to make anywhere between $15 and $20 million annually in a new contract, while Pujols is scheduled to make $16 million in 2010 and possibly more depending on a restructuring.
So one issue is whether or not the Cardinals can afford to sign Matt Holliday (and, which is likely the case, rework Pujols’s contract). Another issue (which may precede the other) is whether they should. In other words, is tying up a relatively high percentage of your payroll in one or two players a successful strategy?
Looking at the playoff teams since 2003 (including 2009), the top-paid player has taken up an average of 16.2% of playoff teams’ payrolls.Only 11 of the 56 playoff teams since 2003 have had their top player take up at least 20%.
| Year | Team | HighPlayerSal | TotalPayroll | % of Total |
| 2007 | COL | $16,600,000 | $54,424,000 | 30.5% |
| 2009 | LAD | $23,854,494 | $100,414,592 | 23.8% |
| 2005 | HOU | $18,000,000 | $76,779,000 | 23.4% |
| 2003 | OAK | $11,666,667 | $50,260,834 | 23.2% |
| 2006 | SDP | $15,505,142 | $69,896,141 | 22.2% |
| 2009 | COL | $16,600,000 | $75,201,000 | 22.1% |
| 2004 | HOU | $16,000,000 | $75,397,000 | 21.2% |
| 2003 | FLA | $10,000,000 | $48,750,000 | 20.5% |
| 2004 | MIN | $10,750,000 | $53,585,000 | 20.1% |
| 2003 | CHC | $16,000,000 | $79,868,333 | 20.0% |
| 2003 | BOS | $20,000,000 | $99,946,500 | 20.0% |
As contracts stand today, if the Cardinals maintain the same payroll from 2009 (~$80 million), Pujols’s 2010 salary that would represent 20% of the total. Obviously, one contract occupying a fifth of the payroll isn’t a prohibitive situation, as 11 teams have shown. But what about the next-highest-paid player on those teams — what percentage did he take up?
| Year | Team | Total | HiPlayer | 2ndPlayer | 2nd% | 1+2% |
| 2005 | HOU | $76,779,000 | $18,000,000 | $18,000,000 | 23.4% | 46.9% |
| 2009 | LAD | $100,414,592 | $23,854,494 | $15,217,401 | 15.2% | 38.9% |
| 2007 | COL | $54,424,000 | $16,600,000 | $4,400,000 | 8.1% | 38.6% |
| 2004 | HOU | $75,397,000 | $16,000,000 | $12,500,000 | 16.6% | 37.8% |
| 2003 | BOS | $99,946,500 | $20,000,000 | $15,500,000 | 15.5% | 35.5% |
| 2009 | COL | $75,201,000 | $16,600,000 | $9,875,000 | 13.1% | 35.2% |
| 2003 | OAK | $50,260,834 | $11,666,667 | $6,000,000 | 11.9% | 35.1% |
| 2006 | SDP | $69,896,141 | $15,505,142 | $9,000,000 | 12.9% | 35.1% |
| 2004 | MIN | $53,585,000 | $10,750,000 | $6,500,000 | 12.1% | 32.2% |
| 2003 | CHC | $79,868,333 | $16,000,000 | $9,500,000 | 11.9% | 31.9% |
| 2003 | FLA | $48,750,000 | $10,000,000 | $4,850,000 | 9.9% | 30.5% |
With two $18-million men, Jeff Bagwell and Roger Clemens, the 2005 Astros tied up nearly half — 46.9% — of their payroll in only two players. Other than that, though, no playoff team in recent history (if ever) has had two players taking up 40% of the payroll pie. So where does that leave the Cardinals as they ponder the impact of a Holliday deal? Here are some scenarios:
| Year | Team | Total | HiPlayer | 2ndPlayer | 2nd% | 1+2% |
| 2010 | STL | $80,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $15,000,000 | 18.8% | 38.8% |
| 2010 | STL | $80,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $16,000,000 | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| 2010 | STL | $90,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $17,000,000 | 18.9% | 37.8% |
| 2010 | STL | $100,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $18,000,000 | 18.0% | 36.0% |
Assuming that the payoll remains the same and that a Pujols contract extension doesn’t change his 2010 salary, the first two scenarios account for the team signing Holliday on a contract that pays him $15 million and $16 million, respectively. Holding the payroll and signing Holliday would seem unlikely, so the third scenario figures that the team will pay $34 between Pujols and Holliday while upping the payroll by $10 million. And, if the success of 2009 brought in enough green to warrant a return to the $100 million mark, the Cardinals could have their own twin $18 million men. In only one case — scenario two — would the team be commtting as much as 40% to two players.
It’s worth noting, however, that the Cardinals already have a significant obligation to their currently second-highest earner, Chris Carpenter, who will make $14.5 million. If the Cardinals were able to sign Holliday to a contract that called for $15 million next year and the total payroll went to $90 million, the team would have three players making about half of the total.
The 2005 Astros, who had Lance Berkman at $10.5 million, had 60.6% in their top three. Even if the Cardinals do increase payroll, they’re going to need to fill in with some cheap players. Adding Holliday — even at a market-low value — would necessitate a cadre of league-minimum players. Would such a team make it to the playoffs?