Free-agent corner outfielder contracts: Worth it?
So you’re wondering if a six-year, bankbusting contract to a thirtysomething Matt Holliday could be worth it. Why not review some recent contract history?
The following graph shows the average salary and value by year for a group of corner outfielders with recent free-agent contracts of four or more years. As it is far from scientific (several caveats apply, not the least of which is the sample size), it is intended to give a rough idea of how contract salaries align with values.
A few observations:
- By Year 3, contracts are at the break-even point.
- Any surplus value in the first three years doesn’t nearly offset the losses in years 4, 5 and 6.
- Possible takeaway: Teams should pay more per year in order to avoid longer contracts.
Notes:
- Contract data taken from Cots Contracts
- Value data taken from Fangraphs
- The following player contracts are used:
Ramirez (‘01-08)
Soriano (‘07-14)
Green (‘00-05)
Lee (‘07-12)
Drew (‘07-11)
Ordonez (‘05-09)
Guerrero (‘04-08)
Abreu (‘03-07)
Damon (‘06-09)
Matsui (‘06-09) - Yearly salaries include signing bonuses
- Data doesn’t include Ramirez’s ‘01 season, Green’s ‘00-’01 seasons
- Data is incomplete for contracts that go beyond ‘09