UCB Roundtable: Which arb-eligible players to buy out, and when?
[For the next few days, we'll be participating in the United Cardinal Bloggers fall roundtable discussion, in which a member blogger poses a question to the group each day. Our turn to pose a question is next Monday; today's question comes from Nick of Pitchers Hit Eighth.]
If the Cardinals hope to retain their superstar players (and their contracts), particularly extending Albert Pujols, they must achieve cost certainty in other spots on the roster. One way the Cards have tried to achieve that certainty is through a willingness to pay a bit more to young players up front to buy out their arbitration and early free agent seasons (Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina). If you’re John Mozeliak, who are the next bunch of players you approach with this offer, and when? Is this approach viable long-term as a franchise-building strategy to keep the Cards in play for big contracts despite the relatively limited payroll stance or will it be necessary eventually to constantly churn new prospects through St Louis ?
The answer seems a matter of risk-management and replaceability. And it’s a wise strategy for the team long-term (see JC Bradbury’s excellent explanation of the economics of such deals, the main idea being that individuals are risk-averse, while firms are usually risk-neutral).
The young pitchers simply haven’t proved enough at the major-league level to warrant even a little extra risk on the club’s part. The one pitcher who has some experience, Kyle McClellan, has shown himself to be a $1-2 million/year middle reliever, not exactly the stuff that requires long-term commitment, given replaceability. The other young pitchers who relieved in 2009 — Mitchell Boggs and Blake Hawksworth — are possible starters (like Wainwright after ‘06). But they are a little too green to commit to, and there’s no risk in waiting another year or two with them (again, like Wainwright).
As for non-pitchers, the main guys without long-term deals who figure to be around at least another year are Colby Rasmus, Skip Schumaker, Brendan Ryan and Ryan Ludwick. That’s half the regulars from a 91-win team, representing 8.4 WAR (or the equivalent of Albert Pujols). As the youngest, both in age and ML experience, Rasmus seems the likeliest candidate for a Wainwright-Molina-type deal. But even Wainwright and Molina had played two and three full seasons, respectively, before signing their nearly identical four-year, $15 million contracts. So Rasmus is probably still a year away, too.
Though the Cardinals have some players who could bubble up to the majors at second base soon (e.g., Daniel Descalso and Jarrett Hoffpauir), Schumaker turned in an above-expectations .363 OBP last year and improved with the glove. Though it’s hard to imagine he’ll get any better from where he ended the season, he projects to age somewhat gracefully. If he can put in a couple more seasons like the one Bill James projects for his 2010 campaign — .353 OBP — would deserve a buyout of his two remaining arbitration years, if not his first year of FA. He has certainly earned consideration.
Ryan is the most curious case. He had the fifth-highest WAR (3.2, for a value of $14.3 million) among NL shortstops last year, and yet his manager won’t commit to giving him the job in 2010. The club has seen firsthand over the last several years how difficult it is to find (and keep) good players at the position. Free agents in the next couple of years are either going to cost a lot (Edgar Renteria), not offer much production (Jack Wilson), or both (Orlando Cabrera). The Cardinals’ farm doesn’t offer any near-term fruit, certainly not of Ryan’s quality. Ryan, however, is still another year from his first arbitration eligibility, despite being older than Yadier Molina, and will be 28 next opening day. If he puts together another super season, he should be at the top of the buyout list.
Ludwick is enigmatic, in that he’ll turn 31 next season and we’ve already begun to see his decline (his RC/G numbers the last four years: 5.5, 5.8, 8.2, 5.4). James doesn’t see him tapering off next year, though, and he produced (1.7 WAR/$7.6 million) double his contract in 2009 ($3.7). Buying out his final two years of arbitration (‘10, ‘11) may be worth it, but the fear is that he, with a history of injuries and at his age and position, will decline more rapidly than one might expect. Also, the Cardinals have at least one corner outfielder in the system who could produce in two years. If Ludwick wanted $4.25 million in arbitration coming off a stellar 2008 season, the Cardinals probably don’t have much to lose by going to arbitration this year.