Cardinals news from a Sabermetric point of view

Matsui deserved series MVP

The voters got one right: Hideki Matsui deserved the World Series MVP award.

Amongst a handful of heroic performances, Matsui’s was most valuable. Chase Utley tied Reggie Jackson’s series home-run record and Cliff Lee turned in the fourth-best fielding-independent start of all-time. But Matsui’s pounding of Phillies’ pitchers provided the most win-probability added of all players.

Matsui propelled the Bronx Bombers with a barrage of base hits, including two hope-crushing home runs off Pedro Martinez and four total in the series, in which the Yankees and Phillies tied the six-game-series record of 17 home runs (New York AL 9, Brooklyn NL 8, 1953). Matsui was responsible for three of the top 10 plays of the series:

Rk Gm Inn Out wWPA Score Batter Pitcher Description
1 4 t9 2 34% 4-4 Rodriguez Lidge Double
2 3 t5 1 21% 3-3 Damon Hamels Double
3 5 b1 0 19% 0-1 Utley Burnett Home Run
4 2 b6 2 18% 1-1 Matsui Martinez Home Run
5 2 t8 1 16% 1-3 Utley Rivera Ground Ball DP
6 3 t4 1 16% 0-3 Rodriguez Hamels Home Run
7 5 t9 0 16% 5-8 Jeter Madson Ground Ball DP
8 6 b2 0 15% 0-0 Matsui Martinez Home Run
9 6 b3 2 14% 2-1 Matsui Martinez Single
10 1 t6 1 13% 1-1 Utley Sabathia Home Run

Coming into Game 6, Lee had tallied the most WPA, mostly on the strength of his .519-WPA start in Game 1. But Matsui, who had .300 WPA through the first five games, saved his best for last and tacked on another .339 WPA in the deciding game to leapfrog over Lee:

Player G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 Total
Matsui .004 .223 .043 -.062 .092 .339 .639
Lee .519 .074 .593
Rodriguez -.096 -.090 .165 .269 .097 -.015 .330
Damon -.092 -.136 .197 .250 .078 .016 .313
Rivera .166 .020 .046 .027 .259
Utley .216 -.193 -.091 .131 .239 -.093 .209
Feliz -.101 -.076 .031 .469 -.040 -.096 .187
Marte .051 .032 .025 .040 .148
Pettitte .030 .115 .145
Sabathia .129 .003 .132
Posada -.021 .035 -.008 .128 .016 -.041 .109
Park -.011 .038 .041 .011 .079
Madson -.045 .017 .004 .057 .036 .001 .070
Eyre .044 .010 .054
Swisher -.056 .141 -.010 -.038 -.011 .026
Aceves .026 .026
Ruiz -.036 -.009 .017 -.069 -.009 .122 .016
Hinske .014 .014
Victorino -.013 -.081 .067 .027 .012 .012
Bako .000
Bastardo .000
Dobbs .000
Gaudin .000
Molina .007 -.016 -.009
Bruney -.011 -.011
Happ .014 -.034 -.020
Werth .010 -.087 .181 -.170 .026 .019 -.021
Coke -.002 -.022 -.024
Myers -.028 -.028
Burnett .357 -.387 -.030
Bruntlett -.036 -.036
Hughes -.050 .001 .008 -.041
Hairston -.026 -.010 -.010 -.046
Stairs .005 -.014 -.026 -.010 -.010 -.055
Jeter .048 -.052 -.005 .106 -.181 .022 -.062
Robertson -.098 .028 -.070
Rollins -.020 .001 .054 -.055 .039 -.091 -.072
Teixeira -.088 .088 .006 -.045 -.101 .063 -.077
Chamberlain .059 -.182 .023 -.100
Cabrera -.062 .015 -.096 .035 -.108
Durbin -.056 -.056 -.112
Francisco -.020 -.048 -.065 -.133
Gardner -.014 -.047 -.051 -.035 -.147
Blanton -.217 -.217
Ibanez -.014 -.013 -.068 -.175 .039 .011 -.220
Howard -.009 -.136 -.076 -.047 .038 -.014 -.244
Martinez -.028 -.226 -.254
Hamels -.350 -.350
Cano -.156 -.074 -.085 -.017 -.050 -.032 -.414
Lidge -.454 -.454

So while Lee and Utley were memorable in the Phillies’ losing effort, and their individual performances will likely endure longer, Matsui earned the MVP. Kudos to Godzilla — and the voters.

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