Comments on: Cardinals’ 2009 transactions in review (Part 1 of 2) http://www.fungoes.net/2009/11/10/cardinals-2009-transactions-in-review-part-1-of-2/ Official blog of the St. Louis chapter of SABR Fri, 03 Feb 2012 15:37:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: indy_ralph http://www.fungoes.net/2009/11/10/cardinals-2009-transactions-in-review-part-1-of-2/comment-page-1/#comment-5583 indy_ralph Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:56:33 +0000 http://www.fungoes.net/?p=2244#comment-5583 Also, I reviewed Cot's Baseball contracts, and I was wrong about one thing - Wainwright already has very reasonable club options thru 2013. Extended him really shouldn't be a priority. He, Carpenter and Lohse are all signed thru at least 2012. I think what we learn from the mis-estimation of last year's market is what mucox says: elite players cost more per WAR. I think the lesson was that if there is $20M to spend, maybe it's better to target some combination of Cameron, Beltre, Glaus, Sheets, Smoltz, etc. Obviously, not all of them are realistic. But the type of contracts that they are likely to command could add the same WAR as Holliday + Freese + replacement players at the same near-term cost with future flexibility. But I haven't looked at any projections to see if my instincts here are feasible. Also, I reviewed Cot’s Baseball contracts, and I was wrong about one thing – Wainwright already has very reasonable club options thru 2013. Extended him really shouldn’t be a priority. He, Carpenter and Lohse are all signed thru at least 2012. I think what we learn from the mis-estimation of last year’s market is what mucox says: elite players cost more per WAR. I think the lesson was that if there is $20M to spend, maybe it’s better to target some combination of Cameron, Beltre, Glaus, Sheets, Smoltz, etc. Obviously, not all of them are realistic. But the type of contracts that they are likely to command could add the same WAR as Holliday + Freese + replacement players at the same near-term cost with future flexibility. But I haven’t looked at any projections to see if my instincts here are feasible.

]]> By: indy_ralph http://www.fungoes.net/2009/11/10/cardinals-2009-transactions-in-review-part-1-of-2/comment-page-1/#comment-5582 indy_ralph Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:47:36 +0000 http://www.fungoes.net/?p=2244#comment-5582 Pip, I think your equation does get at the heart of things. But there are complications - I mean, the Cards have 3 major league OFs, right? Schumaker, Rasmus, Ludwick. So 2B could become involved as well. In fact, the Cards can sport a full MLB lineup without any additions: Pujols Lugo Ryan Freese Schumaker Rasmus Ludwick Molina I wouldn't feel confident in that as a playoff contender, but it allows for incredible flexibility. 3B seems to be the area with the most FA depth, for example. So an upgrade may be able to be made late in the offseason at a reasonable price. It depends on your confidence in Freese. I assume, btw, that LaRussa has no confidence in unproven non-veterans. Pip, I think your equation does get at the heart of things. But there are complications – I mean, the Cards have 3 major league OFs, right? Schumaker, Rasmus, Ludwick. So 2B could become involved as well. In fact, the Cards can sport a full MLB lineup without any additions:
Pujols
Lugo
Ryan
Freese
Schumaker
Rasmus
Ludwick
Molina
I wouldn’t feel confident in that as a playoff contender, but it allows for incredible flexibility. 3B seems to be the area with the most FA depth, for example. So an upgrade may be able to be made late in the offseason at a reasonable price. It depends on your confidence in Freese. I assume, btw, that LaRussa has no confidence in unproven non-veterans.

]]> By: mucox http://www.fungoes.net/2009/11/10/cardinals-2009-transactions-in-review-part-1-of-2/comment-page-1/#comment-5581 mucox Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:32:32 +0000 http://www.fungoes.net/?p=2244#comment-5581 Pip, Thanks for the great article. Heading into the offseason we have several holes to fill in our lineup. Obviously as a 6 WAR player Matt Holliday has gotten the lion’s share of coverage. As we try to fill out our team this off season I find myself asking several questions. These questions are based on several assumptions on my part: 1) A team that gets the most people on base wins (or at least gives themselves the best chance to score runs). Let’s say two teams have the same total RAA (Runs above replacement) of their starting 9 batters. Team A has several high RAA players surrounded by multiple replacement level players. Team B has more moderate level RAA players with fewer replacement level players. Which team scores more runs? Does it make a difference? 2) The same question applies for pitchers. Would you win more games with a few low FIP studs surrounded by a few replacement level pitchers or would you be better to have more moderate level players. 3) You pay more per win for elite players. I’ve never seen this graphed but my assessment All this falls apart in the playoffs but I guess you have to make it their first. Pip,
Thanks for the great article. Heading into the offseason we have several holes to fill in our lineup. Obviously as a 6 WAR player Matt Holliday has gotten the lion’s share of coverage. As we try to fill out our team this off season I find myself asking several questions. These questions are based on several assumptions on my part:
1) A team that gets the most people on base wins (or at least gives themselves the best chance to score runs). Let’s say two teams have the same total RAA (Runs above replacement) of their starting 9 batters. Team A has several high RAA players surrounded by multiple replacement level players. Team B has more moderate level RAA players with fewer replacement level players. Which team scores more runs? Does it make a difference?
2) The same question applies for pitchers. Would you win more games with a few low FIP studs surrounded by a few replacement level pitchers or would you be better to have more moderate level players.
3) You pay more per win for elite players. I’ve never seen this graphed but my assessment
All this falls apart in the playoffs but I guess you have to make it their first.

]]> By: Pip http://www.fungoes.net/2009/11/10/cardinals-2009-transactions-in-review-part-1-of-2/comment-page-1/#comment-5580 Pip Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:33:43 +0000 http://www.fungoes.net/?p=2244#comment-5580 You're certainly right about hindsight. My own belief is that the only fair way to assess a move is at the time it's made. This review was intended more as an attempt to learn from what actually happened, so we can improve the way we assess moves when they occur. (I probably should've written that!) To that end, your point about mis-estimating the FA market, particularly for infielders, is helpful. How can we use that info for this offseason? Cameron would be an interesting signing. Fangraphs has <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron" rel="nofollow">a good post about him</a> as an underrated option. The equation is this, I think: Cameron - in-system OF option > Outside-system 3B option - Freese. Thank you for the kind words. I'll try to keep your interest! You’re certainly right about hindsight. My own belief is that the only fair way to assess a move is at the time it’s made. This review was intended more as an attempt to learn from what actually happened, so we can improve the way we assess moves when they occur. (I probably should’ve written that!) To that end, your point about mis-estimating the FA market, particularly for infielders, is helpful. How can we use that info for this offseason?

Cameron would be an interesting signing. Fangraphs has a good post about him as an underrated option. The equation is this, I think: Cameron – in-system OF option > Outside-system 3B option – Freese.

Thank you for the kind words. I’ll try to keep your interest!

]]> By: indy_ralph http://www.fungoes.net/2009/11/10/cardinals-2009-transactions-in-review-part-1-of-2/comment-page-1/#comment-5579 indy_ralph Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:09:11 +0000 http://www.fungoes.net/?p=2244#comment-5579 Hi Pip, new to the site, but I like what I see so far. A couple of points: grading a GM's performance with the benefit of hindsight is a bit misleading. Greene was an abject disaster, of course, but few would have guessed he would be worse than Izturis or replacement level. And there was little downside risk - i.e. 1 year and he's gone. The big miss was on mis-estimating the free agent market, where O. Cabrera and/or Hudson could have been had at less expense. Regarding the post from a couple of days back, I completely agree on the opportunity cost of Holliday. It seems pretty clear that the Cards won't be able to compete with the major players. They should make their best offer and if it's declined then try Cameron for 1yr/10M or 2/18. Spend the rest on extending Pujols and Wainwright and addressing 3B. But most fans will demand a courtship of Holliday from ownership to prove they're not cheap. Hi Pip, new to the site, but I like what I see so far. A couple of points: grading a GM’s performance with the benefit of hindsight is a bit misleading. Greene was an abject disaster, of course, but few would have guessed he would be worse than Izturis or replacement level. And there was little downside risk – i.e. 1 year and he’s gone. The big miss was on mis-estimating the free agent market, where O. Cabrera and/or Hudson could have been had at less expense. Regarding the post from a couple of days back, I completely agree on the opportunity cost of Holliday. It seems pretty clear that the Cards won’t be able to compete with the major players. They should make their best offer and if it’s declined then try Cameron for 1yr/10M or 2/18. Spend the rest on extending Pujols and Wainwright and addressing 3B. But most fans will demand a courtship of Holliday from ownership to prove they’re not cheap.

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